With Iowa heading to Columbus to take on Ohio State this afternoon, it will be a return to old-school Big Ten football when these two defenses clash.
Between both programs having top-notch defenses and run games, I’m expecting a low-scoring time of possession battle in my Iowa vs. Ohio State predictions and college football picks for Saturday, October 5.
Iowa vs Ohio State prediction
My best bet
Under 45.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
There’s an argument that the two best defenses in the country belong to the Big Ten. Both the Iowa Hawkeyes and Ohio State Buckeyes have been exceptional this year, which is why this matchup could be a slugfest between two teams that want to punch offenses in the mouth and run the damn ball.
While there’s absolutely zero shock hearing that about a Kirk Ferentz team, the Buckeyes have almost had a change in philosophy this season — specifically on offense. That’s due in part to this team not having a first-round talent at QB like C.J. Stroud or Justin Fields.
It’s also because Ryan Day handed over play-calling duties to Chip Kelly, who has totally transformed this rushing attack. With that in mind, I think we could see Kelly lean heavily on the run game in this one because of Will Howard’s limitations and Iowa’s devastating defense.
The Hawkeyes are the top defense by SP+ and are holding opponents to just 272.8 total yards and 13.8 points per game. While they do rank slightly better at stopping the run (23rd in EPA per rush) than the pass (31st in EPA per dropback), Howard’s been iffy at times.
Even last week against Michigan State, which ranks 26th in SP+ on defense, Ohio State put up just 38 — a disappointing number by their standards against a lesser opponent. That was partially because they churned out the clock and won the time of possession battle (35:43 to 27:17).
With a defense full of future NFL players like Nick Jackson, Sebastian Castro, and Xavier Nwankpa, I think the Buckeyes’ passing game could struggle enough that they only put up about 30 points.
That means Ohio State needs to hold Iowa to two touchdowns or less for this Under to hit, and there’s a strong chance of that. The Hawkeyes’ offense is just 86th in SP+ and 115th in EPA per dropback.
While running back Kaleb Johnson is a star, Ohio State should be able to keep him far below his average of 171.2 yards per game. The Buckeyes are second in SP+ on defense and Top 5 in both EPA per rush and dropback.
Iowa vs Ohio State same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 45.5
Will Howard Under 249.5 passing yards
Kaleb Johnson Over 64.5 rushing yards
It’s only been four games but Howard has yet to prove he’s a major upgrade over Kyle McCord. This matchup with Iowa is by far his biggest test of the season and I think he’s going to take his lumps.
Howard’s only topped 249.5 passing yards in two of four games, and Iowa is holding opponents to just 210.8 passing yards per game. It’s pretty clear the Buckeyes have taken a conservative approach with him — he’s made just four big-time throws and has an ADOT of 7.4, per PFF.
As for Iowa’s offense, I don’t think Johnson’s going to get near his season average, but he should still be capable of crossing 64.5 rushing yards. Johnson is third in the country in rushing yards after contact (457) and first in 15-yard runs (16).
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Iowa vs Ohio State odds
Iowa vs Ohio State live odds
Iowa vs Ohio State opening odds
- Iowa vs. Ohio State spread: Ohio State -20.5
- Iowa vs. Ohio State moneyline: Iowa +20.5, Iowa -20.5
- Iowa vs. Ohio State Over/Under: 44.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Iowa vs Ohio State spread and Over/Under analysis
- Ohio State opened between a 20.5 and 21-point favorite, but the line has since come down to -19.5.
- The Buckeyes and Hawkeyes are both 2-2 ATS this season.
- The Over/Under opened as high as 46.5 and as low as 42.5, with most books settling in between 44.5 and 45.5.
- Ohio State is 3-1 betting the Over this season but 0-1 in Power Four games, while Iowa is 4-0.
Iowa vs Ohio State betting trend to know
Iowa has stayed Under the total in nine of their last 13 games for +4.60 units and a 32% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Iowa vs Ohio State.
Iowa vs Ohio State game info
| Location: | Ohio Stadium, Columbus, OH |
| Date: | Saturday, 10-5, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
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