Kennesaw State will hope to repeat the heroics of a week ago and pull off a massive upset when the Owls face the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers tonight.
The Owls defeated Liberty despite being 26.5-point underdogs. They must now come down off an emotional high to prepare for a game against a well-rested Hilltopper side that has averaged 41.3 points in Conference USA action.
My Kennesaw State vs. Western Kentucky predictions and college football picks explain why the Hilltoppers might shut down any notions of an upset quite early on.
Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET from Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium in Bowling Green, with the game airing on ESPN2.
Kennesaw State vs Western Kentucky prediction and best bet
My best bet
Western Kentucky first half -13.5 (-115 at bet365)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
Give full credit to the Kennesaw State Owls, pulling off a massive upset to get their first FBS win in program history. The Owls got the job done by taking care of the football, converting on third down to keep drives alive, and completing 16 of 20 passes for the game.
With that said, the Owls got quite lucky. Liberty outgained the Owls 386-323, doubled them in explosive play rate, doubled them in defensive havoc rate, and held them to just 3.2 yards per carry.
Kennesaw State won in part because Liberty’s simply not been very good at passing the ball this season. The Flames rank 82nd in completion rate and posted a negative EPA/dropback mark with a rating of -10.08 for the entire game.
The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers don’t have that problem. While Caden Veltkamp may not be posting eye-popping totals, he’s been highly efficient. He's thrown 11 touchdowns against just one pick in three conference games while adding another three scores on the ground, and he's completed nearly 70% of his throws in those contests.
Veltkamp will do what Liberty couldn’t, and that’s to punish this Kennesaw State pass defense. The Owls rank 105th in opponent completion percentage, 98th in sack rate, and almost dead last in interception rate. The Owls are also allowing C-USA opponents to convert on third down at better than 42%, while Western has a 57.14% conversion rate so far in three conference outings.
Western can also run the ball effectively and should punish a Kennesaw State defense that's given up 21 runs of 10+ yards and seven runs of 20+ yards in just three conference outings.
On the flip side, the Hilltoppers haven’t conceded a 20+ yard run and have given up just 13 runs of double-digit yardage in their three C-USA games. They also rank third nationally in red zone defense, 27th in sack rate, and 32nd in interception rate.
I expect Western to be ready to go coming out for the opening kickoff, with two weeks to prepare and see what Kennesaw State did last week to ensure it doesn’t overlook its opponent.
The Hilltoppers will come out and impose their will early on both sides of the ball. Their up-tempo offense will control the pace of play and allow them to take a nice lead into halftime.
Kennesaw State vs Western Kentucky same-game parlay (SGP)
Western Kentucky first half -13.5
Caden Veltkamp anytime touchdown
Elijah Young Over 106 rushing + receiving yards
Caden Veltkamp’s legs present a weapon the Owls must account for, especially near the goal line. The WKU QB has found the endzone in all four of his games against non-P4 schools and is likely to do so against an Owls defense that's struggled to contain quarterback runs this season.
Elijah Young isn’t a back who will pound you into submission, but he saw 20+ carries against Sam Houston State for the second time in three contests as he ran for 97 yards. He’s typically more of a weapon out of the backfield, with 24 catches on the season.
He’s topped the century mark in total yards in those two games with higher run volume, including 148 combined rushing + receiving against the Bearkats. With how many big plays the Owls are allowing on the ground, I like him to post a solid number once again and clear his floor of 106.5.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Kennesaw State vs Western Kentucky odds
Kennesaw State vs Western Kentucky live odds
Kennesaw State vs Western Kentucky opening odds
- Kennesaw State vs. WKU spread: Western Kentucky -24.5
- Kennesaw State vs. WKU moneyline: Kennesaw State +1,400, Western Kentucky -3,000
- Kennesaw State vs. WKU Over/Under: 50.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
Kennesaw State vs Western Kentucky spread and Over/Under analysis
- The spread of 24.5 points has remained steady since opening, with the Hilltoppers heavily favored. Western has covered in six straight, including twice as favorites of 18+ points, while Kennesaw State’s win last week was its first cover as an FBS school.
- Western Kentucky has gotten off to fast starts, leading after the first quarter in seven of its last 10 games. It’s a key reason the Hilltoppers are 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games, both after the first quarter and at the final whistle. The Owls have lost all three road games this season by an average of 15.3 points, but they've covered in both games where they were underdogs of 20+ points this season.
- Unlike the spread, there’s been a ton of movement on the total, with the number coming down by as many as three points in some places. It currently sits at 49.5 points, a number very familiar for Kennesaw State — as its last three games have all gone off with a total between 48 and 50.
- While the Under is 5-2 this season for the Owls, those two Overs have come in their last three games. This is the lowest total for a Western Kentucky home game this season, but three of its last four games have stayed Under 50 points.
Kennesaw State vs Western Kentucky betting trend to know
Kennesaw State has stayed Under its game total in its last three road games (+3.00 units / 91% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Kennesaw State vs Western Kentucky.
Kennesaw State vs Western Kentucky game info
| Location: | Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium, Bowling Green, KY |
| Date: | Wednesday, 10-30, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN2 |
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