Week 1 of the 2024 college football season continues Saturday afternoon with a renewed rivalry between the ACC’s Miami Hurricanes and the SEC’s Florida Gators.
Miami's one of the College Football Playoff favorites from the ACC in Mario Cristobal’s third season as head coach of the Hurricanes. It all starts with a tough road matchup against an old rival in the Florida Gators, which my Miami vs. Florida predictions think will serve them well.
The Gators could need this win to even be in contention for a bowl game with their tough schedule, but I don’t think they’ll get it, as I explain in my college football picks for Saturday, August 31.
Miami vs Florida prediction
My best bet
Miami -2.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The Miami Hurricanes will be rolling out several new starters from the transfer portal on both sides of the ball, starting with quarterback Cam Ward from Washington State, who replaces Tyler Van Dyke. Ward was electric in his two years with the Cougars, combining for 61 touchdowns and only 16 interceptions.
The Canes also brought in running back Damien Martinez from Oregon State, where he averaged 6.1 yards per carry, and wide receiver Sam Brown from Houston, where he had 62 catches last season. Xavier Restrepo returns from last season after an 85-catch 1,092-yard performance.
On defense, linebacker Francisco Mauigoa and defensive end Rueben Bain Jr. were absolute monsters last season, combining for 30.5 tackles for loss and 15 sacks, and both are returning. They also brought in three transfers that will be starting, including cornerback Mishael Powell from Washington, where had had three interceptions last season.
The Florida Gators had a rough 5-7 season last year, and things won’t get any easier here. They are basically running back the same offense from last season without Trevor Etienne and a revamped offensive line – which could be good or bad, considering they weren’t great last year. Quarterback Graham Mertz was efficient, but not very electric. He could be reliant on the strength of his line.
There are also several question marks for the Gators on defense, as they lost a couple of key players from last season, and their replacements have little experience. Florida allowed 27.6 points per game last year, and I'm not sure we will see a ton of improvement on that side of the ball this season.
I am high on Miami making the CFP this season and this could be a crucial game to them making it in as an at-large if they are unable to win the ACC. The Canes have the overall talent advantage, so it may come down to if they can gel together quickly.
While Florida has the experience on offense, their defense could struggle, and the offensive line may have nightmares with the Miami front seven. I like the Canes to win and cover on the road here.
Miami vs Florida same-game parlay (SGP)
Miami -2.5
Graham Mertz Under 249.5 passing yards
Xavier Restrepo anytime TD
A Miami win in this game will largely depend on their front seven dominating the Florida offensive line and getting after Mertz. He was held Under 250 passing yards in five games last season, and this Canes defense has a great chance of doing just that.
Finally, we will add a touchdown scorer for Miami. Restrepo had six touchdowns last year and with the more electric Ward now as his quarterback, I expect that number to increase this season. He should find the endzone this week in the "The Swamp."
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
New Users
Up to $1,500 in bonus bet insurance at BetMGM
Make your football plays at BetMGM, which is offering new users up to $1,500 in bonus bets (if your first bet doesn't win)!
Sign up now to join the King of Sportsbooks, or learn more with our comprehensive BetMGM sportsbook review.
Miami vs Florida odds
Miami vs Florida live odds
Miami vs Florida opening odds
- Spread: Miami -3.5 (-105) | Florida +3.5 (-115)
- Moneyline: Miami -145 | Florida +120
- Over/Under: Over 55.5 (-110) | Under 55.5 (-110)
Miami vs Florida spread and Over/Under analysis
- The spread seems to be moving slightly towards Miami with it being -2.5 at -110 early in the week and moving to -120 before landing at -115 on Thursday afternoon at BetMGM.
- The total opened at 55.5 at BetMGM but has moved all the way down to 54 as of Thursday afternoon.
- The total has gone Over in six of the last eight Miami games and seven of the last eight Florida games.
Miami vs Florida betting trend to know
Florida has only covered the spread in four of its last 12 games. Find more college football betting trends for Miami vs Florida.
Miami vs Florida game info
| Location: | Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville, FL |
| Date: | Saturday, 8-31, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ABC |
Miami vs Florida latest injuries
Miami vs Florida weather
Expect hot and humid conditions with 9 mph winds. There's a 20% chance of rain. Monitor gametime conditions with our College football weather info.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
