In what amounts to one of the biggest conference games of the season, the Louisville Cardinals will welcome the Miami Hurricanes to town for an ACC affair.
These defenses are both exploitable, and one team will use that to let their star shine in our Miami vs. Louisville predictions. Read more in my college football picks below.
Miami vs Louisville prediction and best bet
My best bet
Louisville first-quarter moneyline + Xavier Restrepo anytime touchdown (+390 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
If asked about my strongest conviction about what would occur in this game, my answer would be easy: the Miami Hurricanes will throw the ball a ton.
This Louisville Cardinals passing defense has been bad if you wanted to be harsh or unbalanced if you wanted to be a bit fairer. Its star corner and potential first-round NFL draft pick Quincy Riley has been in and out of the lineup with an injury this season, and consequently, Louisville has felt it.
From a numbers perspective, it will enter this one with a defensive passing success rate that sits in the 100s nationally. That’s already a blinking light to any team facing the Cardinals to attack through the air but to the Canes, it’s a five-car blaring alarm.
Miami ranks 16th nationally in pass attempts per game and just came off a win against California, where it passed the ball 53 times. The Canes were chasing in that game, but it shows how willing they are to turn to the air.
With all that in mind, one of the best bets in this game has to involve Cam Ward in some capacity. While passing yards may seem like the logical place to go, BetMGM didn’t give us that option. Instead, we’re going with Miami’s star receiver to find the end zone paired with Louisville to win the first quarter.
I’ve thoroughly explained the passing defense issues for Louisville, but why key on Xavier Restrepo? Well, it’s pretty simple. The senior wideout had his best game of the season last year against Louisville, which was, at that time, a significantly better passing defense. In that game, he tallied nearly 200 yards receiving and a couple of scores. Nothing suggests the Cardinals will better luck here.
The second part is a trends play as much as anything else. For all of its ups and downs this season already, Louisville has remained true to what it built last season, and that’s being good early in games at home. It’s hit the first-quarter moneyline in every home game under head coach Jeff Brohm except one. Speaking of Brohm, he usually wins these games.
Brohm had a reputation for being a giant slayer at Purdue, his stop before Louisville, with three wins over Top-3 teams. He continued that run last season when Louisville upset then-No. 10 Notre Dame.
Carrying on that theme, Brohm was 2-2 outright as a home underdog of six or more points (a place this spread is rapidly approaching). In a relatively even game from a stats perspective between two teams that are likely closer than rankings would suggest, I’d expect Louisville to be ready to throw the first punch. Aiding in that confidence is a Miami team that arrives struggling, particularly early, in its last few games.
Miami vs Louisville same-game parlay (SGP)
Xavier Restrepo anytime touchdown
Louisville first-quarter moneyline
Louisville +4.5
We'll finalize this SGP with Louisville to cover the full-game spread. Much of this goes back to Brohm, his track record, and how Miami's flirted with losses in back-to-back games. I also don’t think the distance between these two teams is that great, as evidenced by the metrics.
Miami has the No. 1 havoc-creating defense in the country, which is perhaps the most significant mismatch in this game. However, I think that’s nullified by Louisville ranking in the Top 50 in havoc themselves and Ward showing the regular capacity to throw the ball up for grabs.
I expect this to be tight throughout and for the Cardinals to pull off the upset, but I’ll take the 4.5 points as an excellent insurance policy.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Miami vs Louisville odds
Miami vs Louisville live odds
Miami vs Louisville opening odds
- Miami vs. Louisville spread: Louisville +4.5
- Miami vs. Louisville moneyline: Miami -185, Louisville +150
- Miami vs. Louisville Over/Under: 59.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
Miami vs Louisville spread and Over/Under analysis
- Louisville has won four of the six head-to-head matchups since 2006.
- The Over has hit in three head-to-head matchups and, in all circumstances, did so by at least a full touchdown.
- Miami arrives undefeated, but it’s hardly been stress-free with back-to-back ATS losses in two conference games.
- Louisville hasn’t been much better from an ATS perspective, with just one cover in its last four games and only two against FBS opponents this season.
Miami vs Louisville betting trend to know
Louisville has covered the third-quarter spread in its last five games. Find more college football betting trends for Miami vs Louisville.
Miami vs Louisville game info
| Location: | L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium, Louisville, KY |
| Date: | Saturday, 10-19, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ABC |
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