The Magnolia Bowl might be a little overlooked with all the massive games on tap this weekend, but this year’s matchup between Mississippi Rebels and the LSU Tigers basically sets up as a College Football Playoff eliminator.
While oddsmakers have this as a close matchup, my Mississippi vs. LSU predictions break down why the Rebels have the edge in Death Valley. Check out my college football picks for this SEC showdown on Saturday, October 12.
Mississippi vs LSU prediction and best bet
My best bet
Mississippi -3.5 (-105 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
The LSU Tigers have rattled off four straight wins since a season-opening loss to USC, and while that’s nice, it’s hard to tell if the Bayou Bengals have really improved since that loss.
LSU’s best win over that stretch was a 36-33 win at South Carolina, a game in which the Tigers were unable to cover a 6-point spread and could have easily lost. In fact, LSU is now just 1-4 ATS on the season, and the stats say the Tigers still have the same issues that plagued them against the Trojans.
Despite solid quarterback play from Garrett Nussmeirer and a strong offensive line, running the football consistently has been a problem for the Tigers — ranked 62nd in rushing offensive success rate.
Meanwhile, the defense is still getting chewed up by opposing quarterbacks, and that isn’t a recipe for success against Jaxson Dart and the Mississippi Rebels.
Dart leads the SEC with 2,100 passing yards while boasting a 13:2 TD/INT ratio, and he should pick apart an LSU defense that ranks 118th in defensive success rate on dropbacks.
And speaking of stop units, that is the big difference between this Rebels team and those of the past. Lane Kiffin hit up the transfer portal and built himself a hell of a defense, as Mississippi enters this game ranked first in the country in defensive success rate and Top 10 in both EPA/dropback and defensive success rate on dropbacks.
This means a one-dimensional LSU offense (the Tigers 12th in pass play percentage) could have trouble in this one. I’m laying the points with the Rebels on the road.
Mississippi vs LSU same-game parlay (SGP)
Mississippi -3.5
LSU team total Under 28.5
Tre Harris Over 89.5 Receiving Yards
LSU has faced two competitive defenses this season: USC in the opener, where they managed just 20 points, and South Carolina on September 14. If you recall, that South Carolina game was chaotic, with the Gamecocks unraveling in the fourth quarter.
Mississippi will be the best defense LSU has seen by far this season, and I expect the Rebels to contain the Tigers to four touchdowns or fewer in this matchup.
One guy I’m betting can’t be contained is Mississippi wide receiver Tre Harris. The senior has looked unstoppable during his second season in Mississippi, leading the SEC with 52 receptions and tops in the nation with 885 receiving yards.
Harris has recorded at least 81 receiving yards in all six games this season, surpassing 130 yards in four of them — including an impressive 176 yards against a solid Kentucky defense. He'll have no problem torching this spotty LSU secondary.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Mississippi vs LSU odds
Mississippi vs LSU live odds
Mississippi vs LSU opening odds
- Mississippi vs. LSU spread: LSU +2.5
- Mississippi vs. LSU moneyline: Mississippi -130, LSU +110
- Mississippi vs. LSU Over/Under: 65.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Mississippi vs LSU spread and Over/Under analysis
- Bettors were quick to jump on Mississippi at less than a field goal, and the spread has since moved to 3.5.
- While the home team has won this matchup in four straight meetings, Mississippi's improved defense and LSU's struggles to stop Jaxson Dart give the Rebels the edge to buck that trend.
- The total hit the board at 65.5 and early bettors have hammered the Under, moving the number down three points to 62.5 as of Friday afternoon.
- Even at this new number, I would lean toward the Under, as LSU's offense will struggle to help send this one Over.
Mississippi vs LSU betting trend to know
The Rebels have hit the game total Under in seven of their last 11 games (+2.65 Units / 22% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Mississippi vs LSU.
Mississippi vs LSU game info
| Location: | Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, LA |
| Date: | Saturday, 10-12, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ABC |
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