Tonight features a terrific Mountain West football game when the Nevada Wolf Pack take on the Boise State Broncos.
Nevada hopes to end a three-game losing skid, but my Nevada vs. Boise State predictions expect a high-scoring affair in which the Broncos comfortably prevail.
Read on as I explain why I like the Over with my free college football picks for November 9. Kickoff is set for 8:00 p.m. ET from Albertsons Stadium in Boise, with the game airing on FOX.
Nevada vs Boise State prediction and best bet
My best bet
Over 60.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
The Boise State Broncos offense is a dominant one. Sure, they have one of the top rushers in all football, but the Broncos are more than just RB Ashton Jeanty.
The Broncos star RB may run all over the Nevada Wolf Pack like he has everyone else this season. Jeanty dominating defenses is usually a given, but Boise State has a solid 11-man unit topping the Mountain West with 45.8 points per game.
The Broncos have exceeded 45+ in three of their last five. Sophomore QB Maddux Madsen has thrown 17 scoring strikes against two interceptions, with six fellow Broncos recording 100+ receiving yards.
That’s tough for anyone to stop. Nevada has surrendered more than its 22-point average in five straight games. They’ve been better against the pass than the rush but mediocre overall, and mediocre isn’t going to stop the Broncos offense.
Fortunately for Nevada, their offense is better than mediocre. They have a solid rushing offense led by the two-pronged attack of quarterback Brendon Lewis and running back Savion Red.
Both have scampered for 600+ rushing yards. Lewis has thrown for an additional 1,542 passing yards with 11 scoring strikes and five picks. This group has scored 21+ in four of their last five and should score 21+ on Saturday night.
If the Wolf Pack score 21+, and I believe they will, this game will end Over the total. The Broncos stop unit is also mediocre. They’ve allowed 24+ in four of their last five.
Boise State plays lockdown defense against the rush but ranks eighth in the Mountain West against the pass. That should open the door for Lewis to have a big night with his arm, and if he does, then this one ends Over the number.
Nevada vs Boise State same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 60.5
Brendon Lewis anytime touchdown
Boise State -23.5
Lewis is a jewel the FOX audience will enjoy watching. The Wolf Pack QB is the second-leading rusher for Nevada and has scored at least one TD in each of his last four.
Boise State has surrendered 11 rushing TDs in the red zone, which should allow Lewis to call his number and find paydirt at least once.
Lewis' rushing and passing prowess will help fuel the Over, but it won’t help Nevada cover the spread. The Broncos are 4-0-1 ATS across their last five and meet a Wolf Pack side with a 2-2-1 ATS mark across their previous five.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Nevada vs Boise State odds
Nevada vs Boise State live odds
Nevada vs Boise State opening odds
- Nevada vs. Boise State spread: Boise State -25.5
- Nevada vs. Boise State moneyline: Nevada +1,550 | Boise State -5,000
- Nevada vs. Boise State Over/Under: 60.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Nevada vs Boise State spread and Over/Under analysis
- Nevada is 5-4-1 ATS in its previous 10 games. The number has swung to as low as +23.5 (-110). The likely culprit for the move is Boise State having a couple of O-linemen on their injury report.
- Boise State is 6-3-1 ATS across their last 10 and 3-2-0 ATS in their previous five meetings with Nevada.
- The total hasn’t budged much from the 60.5 (-110) opener. Nevada is 4-1-0 to the Over across their last five tilts, and Boise State is 3-2-0 to the Over in their previous five contests.
Nevada vs Boise State betting trend to know
Boise State has hit the Over in six of its last seven home games (+4.90 Units / 64% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Nevada vs Boise State.
Nevada vs Boise State game info
| Location: | Albertsons Stadium, Boise, ID |
| Date: | Saturday, 11-9-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
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Nevada vs Boise State weather
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