It may not be apparent at first, but tonight's New Mexico Bowl may be one of the best matchups to open bowl season.
The New Mexico State Aggies were one of 2023's best stories in college football odds. They finished the regular season winning 10, including an eight-game winning streak that was painfully snapped in the C-USA Championship game against Liberty.
On the other hand, the Fresno State Bulldogs stumbled down the stretch, losing their final three games and failing to cover the spread in seven of their last eight. To make matters worse, the Bulldogs will missing an important piece of the team for this matchup.
I break down the New Mexico State bowl and bring you the best bet in my college football picks and predictions for New Mexico State vs. Fresno State on December 16.
New Mexico State vs Fresno State best odds
New Mexico State vs Fresno State picks and predictions
What Jerry Kill has done with this New Mexico State program is nothing short of outstanding. The most clear-cut evidence of that is the fact the Aggies are playing in consecutive bowl games for the first time since 1959-60.
This season, New Mexico State went 10-4 straight up and 10-3-1 against the spread. As noted, the Aggies went on an eight-game winning, which included a program-defining win at Auburn where they were 25-point road underdogs.
While New Mexico State ultimately came up short in the C-USA title game against Liberty, that doesn’t take away from what this Aggies team did this season. And a big reason for the Aggies’ success has been because of the play of quarterback Diego Pavia.
Pavia is a true dual-threat QB and he finished the regular season throwing for 26 touchdowns to only eight interceptions while completing 61.6% of his passes. Pavia also added 851 yards and six scores by using his legs.
In general, the Aggies rumbled on the ground this season, rushing for over 200 yards per game and ranking fourth in the country in yards per carry. New Mexico is bound to cause problems for a Fresno State program that has not only been getting gashed by the run but could also be lacking motivation heading into Saturday.
The Bulldogs started the season on fire, boasting an 8-1 record following their first nine games. However, the wheels fell off down the stretch, as Fresno State lost three in a row to close the season.
Overall, the Bulldogs went 1-7 against the spread in their final nine games. Things have also gone from bad to worse as head coach Jeff Tedford is taking a leave of absence due to health concerns and won’t be coaching in this game.
Fresno State hasn’t been right since San Jose State smacked the Bulldogs around a few weeks ago. Now without their head coach, I’m not sure this team will be in the right head space to compete against a New Mexico State team that is not only a tough matchup for the Bulldogs but is also motivated to get their coach a bowl win.
Lay the points with the Aggies.
My best bet: New Mexico State -3.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
New Mexico State vs Fresno State same-game parlay
New Mexico State -3.5
Diego Pavia Over 47.5 rushing yards
Jonathan Brady anytime touchdown
As always, our same-game parlay kicks off with my best bet. The main reason I like New Mexico State in this matchup is because I think their running game will be a big problem for Fresno State.
The Bulldogs have been completely exploited by the run during their three-game losing streak, surrendering a whopping 294.7 rushing yards per game over that span.
Meanwhile, Pavia averages 60.7 rushing yards per game and has tallied 63 or more in eight of his last 12 games. The QB's rushing total prop for this bowl game is sitting at 47.5, so adding the Over here is a no-brainer.
Pavia also gets the job done with his arm, and his favorite target this season has been wideout Jonathan Brady. Let's close this SGP out with an anytime TD for New Mexico State's No. 1 WR.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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New Mexico State vs Fresno State spread and Over/Under analysis
New Mexico State opened as 2.5-point chalk and it’s the Aggies who have seen the early action, with the line moving to -3.5. I've already broken down why I like laying the points with the Aggies, and it certainly doesn’t hurt that they will also be essentially playing in front of a home crowd on Saturday.
Meanwhile, the total hit the board at 51.5 and that’s where it remains as of Thursday. I would have a slight lean to the Over in this matchup, as New Mexico State’s offense has been rumbling and now gets to go against a Fresno State defense that has struggled in the second half of the season. The Bulldogs have also surrendered an average of 31 points per game over their last six games and at least 30 in four of those six.
New Mexico State vs Fresno State betting trend to know
The Aggies covered the spread in five straight games as a favorite. Find more college football betting trends for New Mexico State vs Fresno State.
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New Mexico State vs Fresno State game info
| Location: | University Stadium, City, State |
| Date: | Saturday, December 16, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 5:45 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
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