The South Alabama Jaguars welcome a struggling Northwestern State Demons program to Mobile in Week 3.
The Jaguars are a 35.5-point home favorite against the 0-2 Demons, and we highlight why these two winless teams are in for a high-scoring matchup in our Northwestern State vs. South Alabama predictions.
Read on for my full college football picks on Thursday, September 12.
Northwestern State vs South Alabama prediction
My best bet
Over 60.5 (-115 at FanDuel)
My analysis
A lot has changed in Mobile over the last few months. South Alabama has gone from one of the up-and-coming Group of Five programs to slightly directionless since head coach Kane Wommack left to be Alabama’s defensive coordinator.
Wommack leaving also coincided with a shift in approach under Major Applewhite, who had served as South Alabama’s offensive coordinator from 2021 to 2023 before taking over as head coach.
Two games into his tenure, South Alabama’s defense has taken a major step back. It’s 122nd in SP+ and allows an average of 39.5 points per game — that includes giving up 27 against an Ohio offense that’s 129th out of 134 in SP+.
So while Northwestern State is no powerhouse, it’s already shown the ability to score points against FBS programs this season and can take advantage of poor defensive play, as evidenced by the Demons putting up 28 points in their Week 1 loss against Tulsa.
New head coach Blaine McCorkle has an offensive background, which showed against the Golden Hurricanes — specifically with the run game. It reappeared in Week 2 against Prairie View A&M, where the Demons put up 31.
The problem is Northwestern State’s defense has been atrocious. Tulsa scored 62 points on it and QB Kirk Francis threw for four touchdowns. Week 2 wasn’t much better with the Panthers scoring 37.
South Alabama QB Gio Lopez should have a field day against this defense. He was one of the best G5 QBs in the country in Week 1 with 432 yards through the air and 62 on the ground while putting up four total touchdowns.
Though he missed the Jaguars Week 2 game, he’s expected back against the Demons. And he and receiver Jamaal Pritchett should cook this defense and help this Over cash.
Northwestern State vs South Alabama same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 60.5
Northwestern State +35.5
An 0-2 Group of Five program winning by more than five touchdowns is a tall task. Even after Northwestern State got blown out by Tulsa, it still lost by 34 points.
Given the Jaguars’ defensive woes and the Demons’ propensity for hitting big plays, it’s hard to imagine South Alabama scoring north of 60 to cover this spread. I just don’t trust their defense to shut Northwestern State down for four quarters.
And even if South Alabama gets up big, the Demons will likely be capable of putting points up in garbage time — just like they did against the Golden Hurricanes.
It’s far more likely this game ends in a similar outcome to the Tulsa matchup for Northwestern State than in a massive blowout.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
New Users
Up to $1,500 in bonus bet insurance at BetMGM
Make your football plays at BetMGM, which is offering new users up to $1,500 in bonus bets (if your first bet doesn't win)!
Sign up now to join the King of Sportsbooks, or learn more with our comprehensive BetMGM sportsbook review.
Eligible U.S. locations only
Northwestern State vs South Alabama odds
Northwestern State vs South Alabama live odds
Northwestern State vs South Alabama opening odds
- Spread: Northwestern State +36.5 (-110) | South Alabama -36.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Northwestern State +1,100 | South Alabama -50,000
- Over/Under: Over 60.5 (-110) | Under 60.5 (-110)
Northwestern State vs South Alabama spread and Over/Under analysis
- South Alabama opened as a 36.5-point favorite with most books sitting between -35.5 and -36.5 as kickoff approaches.
- The Jaguars are 0-2 ATS this season and have failed to cover as the favorite in both their games.
- The Over/Under opened between 58.5 and 60.5 and remains there.
- South Alabama is 1-1 betting the Over this season after being 7-6 last year.
Northwestern State vs South Alabama betting trend to know
South Alabama has only hit the game total Under in six of its last 13 games (-1.70 Units / -12% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Northwestern State vs South Alabama.
Northwestern State vs South Alabama game info
| Location: | Hancock Whitney Stadium, Mobile, AL |
| Date: | Thursday, 9-12, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN+ |
Northwestern State vs South Alabama latest injuries
Northwestern State vs South Alabama weather
Monitor gametime conditions with our College football weather info.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
