The Notre Dame Fighting Irish remain in the thick of Playoff contention and should match up well against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets this afternoon. While the Yellow Jackets kicked off the 2024 season with an upset of Florida State in Dublin, they have quietly disappointed most of the time since then.
Thus, my Notre Dame vs. Georgia Tech predictions and college football picks trust the Irish, with kickoff set at 3:30 ET on October 19.
Notre Dame vs Georgia Tech prediction and best bet
My best bet
Notre Dame -10 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
As always, shop around. Some sportsbooks have moved this line as far as -9.5 as of early Friday morning, all falling from a high of -11.5, where this number sat for the bulk of the week.
Why is it falling? Who knows. Notre Dame lost All-American cornerback Benjamin Morrison for the season to a hip injury, but that has been known since Monday. The Irish may be without kicker Mitch Jeter, but that should not impact a spread and certainly not move it through two key numbers.
Regardless, the move is the wrong one. Not only has Notre Dame gone 3-1 against the spread since its embarrassing outright loss to Northern Illinois, but the Irish have found the form of complementary football that makes them an intriguing Playoff contender.
Whatever an opponent’s weakness is, Notre Dame is capable of exploiting it.
In Georgia Tech’s case, the piece to exploit is the Yellow Jackets’ passing defense. The entire college football universe got completely wrapped up in Georgia Tech’s defensive performance in that season-opening win against Florida State, but then forgot to recalibrate that evaluation once it became clear the Seminoles are such a lost cause. Holding them to 193 passing yards and 291 total yards was not as impressive as it seemed in the moment.
Remembering to look closer, the Yellow Jackets rank No. 117 in both passing defense success rate and passing defense expected points added (EPA) per dropback. Meanwhile, Riley Leonard has thrown six touchdowns in the last three games, completing 70% of his passes and averaging 7.8 yards per pass attempt.
Against a middling offense, Notre Dame won't need to produce a bounty of points to cover this spread, certainly not with one of the best defenses in the country. Leonard should manage just enough, and that has been the Irish standard this season.
Friday evening update
Midday Friday, ESPN's Pete Thamel reported Georgia Tech quarterback Haynes King will be out this weekend with an upper-body injury.
When this spread began to tick down Thursday evening, moving from -11.5 toward -10 and even -9.5 at some sportsbooks, it seemed in part a confirmation King would play. The Yellow Jackets' messaging all week had been optimistic, so -10.5 felt like King's availability was already baked in. That added tick downward was a natural reaction, though it also sparked some to wonder if Notre Dame had a new injury, including yours truly.
All indications are the Irish are as healthy as expected, that move was entirely in anticipation of King playing, and now he is out. Veteran backup Zach Pyron will get the start.
Simply enough, Pyron is the backup for a reason, and this spread subsequently ballooned to -14. If holding a Notre Dame ticket below -10, there would be justification for taking Georgia Tech at +14 to enjoy a hefty middle.
There should also be an added look at the Under, falling to just the key number of 49.5 on Friday in the wake of this news.
Notre Dame vs Georgia Tech same-game parlay (SGP)
Notre Dame -9.5
Riley Leonard 150+ passing yards
Riley Leonard anytime touchdown
Leonard has cleared this passing yards prop in each of his last three games and five of the season’s six, so it is somewhat surprising to see it raise this same-game parlay’s payout by 221%, especially considering Georgia Tech’s passing defense is its weakness.
The Irish quarterback carrying the ball across the goal line has become a bit of a default, doing so eight times in the last five games and at least once in each of those contests.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Notre Dame vs Georgia Tech odds
Notre Dame vs Georgia Tech live odds
Notre Dame vs Georgia Tech opening odds
- Notre Dame vs. Georgia Tech spread: Georgia Tech +8.5
- Notre Dame vs. Georgia Tech moneyline: Notre Dame -300, Georgia Tech +250
- Notre Dame vs. Georgia Tech Over/Under: 49.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Notre Dame vs Georgia Tech spread and Over/Under analysis
- Notre Dame opened as a mere 8-point favorite on Sunday, reaching -8.5 that night and then steaming to -11.5 on Monday morning.
- Some sportsbooks pondered -12.5 on Thursday morning, before recommitting to -11.5 until evening traffic began to push -10 onto the board.
- The total opened as high as 52.5 before quickly falling to 50.5 or 49.5, depending on your sportsbook. It hung there until Thursday, 50.5 then becoming the consensus number.
Notre Dame vs Georgia Tech betting trend to know
The Fighting Irish have gone 8-3 against the spread in their last 11 games, including 4-2 this season. Find more college football betting trends for Notre Dame vs Georgia Tech.
Notre Dame vs Georgia Tech game info
| Location: | Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA |
| Date: | Saturday, 10-19, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
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