As you all know, there was a huge event in America this week. Yup, it’s the return of mid-week MACTION, and the race for the conference title game couldn’t be closer.
Despite dealing with the transfer of quarterback Kurtis Rourke, one of those teams in the thick of that race is the Ohio Bobcats. The Bobcats will be big favorites against the Kent State Golden Flashes tonight, and my Ohio vs. Kent State predictions highlight a player prop.
Check out my college football picks for this MAC matchup on Wednesday, November 6.
Kickoff is set for 7:00 p.m. ET from Dix Stadium in Kent, with the game airing on ESPNU.
Ohio vs Kent State prediction and best bet
My best bet
Parker Navarro 75+ rushing yards (+110 at bet365)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
When Kurtis Rourke transferred to Indiana, he left some big shoes to fill, but Parker Navarro has been up to the task.
Navarro spent two seasons sitting behind Rourke on the depth chart, and while many thought this season would be a big step back for the Ohio Bobcats, they enter this week with a 3-1 conference record with a very good shot of being 4-1 following this week’s game.
That’s because Navarro has really stepped up. The dual-threat quarterback has thrown for 1,217 yards while completing 66.2% of his passes while adding another 507 yards on the ground. That works out to 6.2 yards per carry, and his rushing ability has been a big part of the offense in MAC play.
Navarro has carried the ball 11+ times in four conference games for 408 of those 507 yards, with the yards per carry jumping up to 8.0. He’s also topped 80 yards rushing in three of those four games. The one time he didn’t was against a very good Miami (OH) defense.
The other reason the Bobcats have good odds to notch another win is because they're taking on the Kent State Golden Flashes, who might just be the worst team in the nation. The Golden Flashes are 0-8 for the season and just 2-6 ATS. They've only played one FBS opponent within 19 points and are 19.5-point home underdogs for this matchup.
The ugliness doesn’t end there. Kent State is bad everywhere, and defense is no exception. The Flashes rank 133rd in opponent EPA/play, 131st in defensive success rate, and 134th in opponent EPA/rush and opponent yards per rush, allowing 6.1 yards per carry. That means teams have been rumbling all over the Golden Flashes.
I don’t expect that to change on Wednesday night. Getting plus money on Navarro to hit 75+ rushing yards for the fourth time in five games is the best bet on the board.
Ohio vs Kent State same-game parlay (SGP)
Parker Navarro 75+ rushing yards
Parker Navarro anytime touchdown
Over 52.5
Let’s add Navarro to find the end zone to this SGP as well, something the Bobcats quarterback has done four times this season.
Suffice it to say, I’m betting Ohio does some scoring in this matchup against a Kent State team that ranks dead last in scoring defense (46.6 ppg). Ohio is putting up 31 points per game in MAC play, and I'd be surprised if they didn’t surpass that average on Wednesday.
On the other side of the ball, this Bobcats defense has been solid, but you can certainly throw on them, ranking 74th in defensive success rate on dropbacks and 99th in EPA/dropback.
Yes, Kent State is bad, but they’ve put up 21+ points in three of four MAC games. It doesn’t matter if it’s garbage time; all those points count toward the total, and that’s why I’m closing this SGP out with the Over.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Ohio vs Kent State odds
Ohio vs Kent State live odds
Ohio vs Kent State opening odds
- Ohio vs. Kent State spread: Kent State +18
- Ohio vs. Kent State moneyline: Ohio -1,200, Kent State +750
- Ohio vs. Kent State Over/Under: 52.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
Ohio vs Kent State spread and Over/Under analysis
- Kent State opened as an 18-point home underdog, and despite the craziness of this conference, bettors are still laying with the favorite, moving the line as high as 19.5.
- As noted, three of Kent State's four MAC losses have been 19+ points. The other was against arguably as bad Ball State.
- The total hit the board at 52.5 and hasn't seen much action as of Tuesday afternoon.
- I'm expecting this number to creep up once kickoff approaches. Ohio should do its fair share of scoring, while Kent State is capable of some garbage time magic. These two are a combined 6-2 to the Over in MAC play this season.
Ohio vs Kent State betting trend to know
Kent State has hit the Over in four of its last five games at home for +2.90 units and a 53% ROI, while Ohio has gone Over in eight of its last 13 games for +2.50 units and a 17% ROI. Find more college football betting trends for Ohio vs Kent State.
Ohio vs Kent State game info
| Location: | Dix Stadium, Kent, OH |
| Date: | Wednesday, 11-6, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPNU |
Ohio vs Kent State latest injuries
Ohio vs Kent State weather
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