Two teams seeking answers on offense face off Saturday when the Oklahoma Sooners visit the Auburn Tigers.
In my Oklahoma vs. Auburn predictions, I break down why the Sooners will have the best of this game against a Tigers team that has struggled against quality opponents so far this season.
Find out why in my college football picks for this September 28 SEC matchup.
Oklahoma vs Auburn prediction
My best bet
Oklahoma -2.5 (-105 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
Both teams are heading into Saturday with serious questions about their quarterback play. Oklahoma sophomore Jackson Arnold has just 538 yards and seven touchdowns — not to mention three interceptions — through four games this year, numbers that have him ranked 110th in the nation according to ESPN’s QBR metric.
The Sooners gave the ball to freshman quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr. in the second quarter last weekend against the Tennessee Volunteers, and he found some success the rest of the way. Hawkins threw for 132 yards and a touchdown on 18 attempts while running for 22 yards against one of the best teams in the country. As a result, it’s Hawkins who gets the ball on Saturday against the Tigers.
Auburn hasn’t gotten consistent production out of either of its quarterback options. Freshman Hank Brown started the game against the Arkansas Razorbacks last week but was pulled after throwing three interceptions. Senior Payton Thorne came off the bench to finish the game, but it’s worth noting that he’s thrown five picks this year as well.
Of these two uncertain quarterback situations, I have a bit more faith in Oklahoma’s side. Hawkins was able to get the job done — at least to some extent — against a top-tier SEC opponent, meaning he’ll likely find ways to create offense against Auburn as well. Meanwhile, Hugh Freeze isn’t sure who he wants to use, saying Brown and Thorne are in open competition.
Oklahoma also has the better defensive unit, at least as far as we’ve seen this season. Before last weekend’s game, the Sooners hadn’t allowed 20 points in a game, and they held Tennessee to just 25, keeping themselves in the game for as long as they could while the offense sputtered. It was the first time the Volunteers had scored fewer than 51 points this season.
Auburn hasn’t been awful defensively by any means, allowing an average of just 16.8 points per game so far in 2024. However, only two of those games came against Power 4 schools, with the California Golden Bears and the Arkansas Razorbacks, each scoring 21+ points against the Tigers.
Hawkins and Oklahoma should get to around that number again on Saturday. The problem for Auburn is that it’s hard to see them matching even a mediocre offensive performance out of the Sooners. I like Oklahoma to cover a very small spread in its first-ever road SEC game.
Oklahoma vs Auburn same-game parlay (SGP)
Oklahoma -2.5
Under 45.5
Oklahoma is my pick, but you shouldn’t mistake that for thinking that I’m in love with its offensive production. I expect both teams to struggle moving the ball on Saturday, and that’s something I’m targeting in my same-game parlay.
Of course, I’m taking the Sooners to cover once again. I’m going to pair that with the Under at a meager 45.5 points. Both teams came in Under this number last week when they played against SEC competition, and I expect them to keep up that low-scoring trend as we move on with the conference schedule.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Oklahoma vs Auburn odds
Oklahoma vs Auburn live odds
Oklahoma vs Auburn opening odds
- Oklahoma vs. Auburn spread: Auburn +2.5
- Oklahoma vs. Auburn moneyline: Oklahoma -135, Auburn +115
- Oklahoma vs. Auburn Over/Under: 46.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Oklahoma vs Auburn spread and Over/Under analysis
- Oklahoma and Auburn are each 2-2 ATS so far this season.
- The Sooners are 2-1 ATS as a favorite, while the Tigers are coming into this game as an underdog for the first time this season.
- The Under holds a 3-1 edge in Oklahoma’s games this year, while it is 2-2 when Auburn plays.
- The Sooners have played to an average total of 43.8 ppg in 2024, with Auburn’s average total coming in at 53.5 ppg.
Oklahoma vs Auburn betting trend to know
The Sooners are 3-0 ATS in their last three games as favorites of 14 points or less. Find more college football betting trends for Oklahoma vs Auburn.
Oklahoma vs Auburn game info
| Location: | Jordan-Hare Stadium, Auburn, AL |
| Date: | Saturday, 9-28, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 3:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ABC |
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