Can 2024 be the season James Franklin’s team takes that next step and captures the Big Ten title? Penn State is saddled with some massive expectations which include a College Football Playoff berth.
The Nittany Lions begin the quest to the postseason with a trip to Morgantown to take on the West Virginia Mountaineers but my Penn State vs. West Virgnia predictions expect a much tougher battle for Penn State than the odds would suggest.
Find out why in my college football picks for this Saturday, August 31 encounter.
Penn State vs West Virginia prediction
My best bet
West Virginia +8.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Penn State comes into 2024 with pretty massive expectations. The Nittany Lions are the third favorites to win the Big Ten and are odds-on favorites to qualify for the new 12-team College Football Playoff.
James Franklin’s squad boasts one of the best defenses in the country led by edge rusher Abdul Carter. Penn State also has a strong offensive line that will block for a great running back duo in Nicholas Singelton and Kaytron Allen.
Now, they begin the season by heading to Morgantown to take on the West Virginia Mountaineers, a team they beat 38-15 in Happy Valley to open last season. So, this one should be no problem as 8.5-point road favorites this time around, right?
Well, not so fast because West Virginia very quietly went 9-4 last season. They won four in a row following the loss to Penn State, and their only really bad Big 12 loss came to Oklahoma late in the season.
The Mountaineers face a tough task against this Penn State defense, but have a veteran under center in the dual-threat Garrett Greene and a thunder-and-lightning combo at running back in CJ Donaldson and Jaheim White. And they will be playing behind a strong offensive line to boot.
So, it feels like the success of the Nittany Lions rests on the arm of quarterback Drew Allar. A highly touted freshman last season, Allar looked impressive and at the very least efficient last season. That said, Allar looked the worst in the biggest games, namely against Michigan and Ohio State.
Allar’s biggest problem in those matchups was pushing the ball down the field. West Virginia has strong enough corners to leave them on an island and focus on stopping the run. Something they should be better at in 2024 after adding Penn State transfer Fatorma Mulbah at defensive tackle.
West Virginia is not Ohio State or Michigan, but in theory, they should have the ability to frustrate Allar in this matchup.
Now, I think Penn State’s talent wins out in the end, but it won’t be easy, especially considering Morgantown is a tough venue, so I’m taking the points with, wait for it, “West Virginia, mountain mama, take me home, country roads!”
Penn State vs West Virginia same-game parlay (SGP)
West Virginia +7.5
Under 51.5
Garrett Greene Over 44.5 rushing yards
If West Virginia keeps this game close, it’s because the team got a great performance from senior quarterback Garrett Greene.
The dual-threat quarterback is coming off a great season with the Mountaineers, throwing for 2,406 yards and 16 touchdowns, compared to just four interceptions while adding another 727 yards and 13 scores on the ground.
A good game against Penn State means controlling the clock with the run game and not turning over the ball. Which is something he did in last year’s loss to the Nittany Lions. No interceptions and 71 yards rushing on 15 attempts.
Greene rushing the football will keep those elite Penn State rushers honest. He will definitely have several designed runs, but those guys will also have him running for his life at times as well, so taking him to go Over 44.5 rushing yards in this one makes all the sense in the world. A number he went Over in nine games last season.
I also mentioned running the ball will be important to both teams, so the game clock should keep moving pretty regularly and that has me leaning toward the Under.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Penn State vs West Virginia odds
Penn State vs West Virginia live odds
Penn State vs West Virginia opening odds
- Spread: Penn State -10 (-110) | West Virginia +10 (-110)
- Moneyline: Penn State -450 | West Virginia +350
- Over/Under: Over 51.5 (-110) | Under 51.5 (-110)
Penn State vs West Virginia spread and Over/Under analysis
- Penn State was a double-digit road favorite when this line hit the board all the way back in May, but West Virginia has seen more action to this point, moving the spread to the current 8.5.
- The total opened at 51.5 and it has remained in that range as of Thursday afternoon.
- Last year's matchup ended 38-15 in favor of Penn State, going Over the closing total of 48. However, that game wasn't competitive and West Virginia has improved. We're getting some value on the Under with an added three points.
Penn State vs West Virginia betting trend to know
West Virginia went 5-1 ATS in Morgantown last season. Find more college football betting trends for Penn State vs West Virginia.
Penn State vs West Virginia game info
| Location: | Milan Puskar Stadium, Morgantown, WV |
| Date: | Saturday, 8-31, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
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