For the second week in a row, a couple of the following college football picks have plus-money odds. Again, none of them are massive odds, but they are still +100 or better.
Just like last week, this is not an attempt at making back a frustrating deficit all in one week. First of all, that deficit is smaller after last week’s 3-2 success for +1.67 units. Second of all, there was some consideration given to a bit using five plus-money bets.
Something to the tune of, “Calling someone out of an obligation because it is their birthday is disingenuous. Call them when you see them making bad decisions, like using five plus-money bets in a Best Bets column.” But, obviously, that would be a bad process, even if a good bit.
No, these are simply spots of value that happen to be in the same week for the second week in a row. And the entire want here is to continue to emphasize value whenever it is available. So let’s discuss some Week 9 value as we claw back the final remains of this -2.41 deficit, 16-19 on the year …
College football predictions for Week 9
- Houston ML (+150)
- Oklahoma TT Under 13.5 (+100)
- Notre Dame/Navy Over 50 (-110)
- Missouri TT Under 16.5 (-102)
- Cincinnati +6.5 (-102)
Picks made on 10-24. Click on each pick to see full analysis.
College football Week 9 predictions
Houston moneyline vs. Utah
Best odds: +150 at DraftKings
Utah offensive coordinator Andy Ludwig’s resignation on Sunday night was unexpected, to say the least. Ludwig was in his sixth season in the role, a stretch that saw the Utes reach three Pac-12 title games and win two of them, thus reaching two Rose Bowls.
Utah’s offense fell apart this season, from afar not because of Ludwig’s failures, but because veteran quarterback Cam Rising simply could not stay healthy.
Whether or not Ludwig was a sacrificial lamb for head coach Kyle Whittingham doesn't matter. The shock of the shift in offensive coordinators does. Even new starting quarterback Isaac Wilson had to acknowledge the psychological blow, no offense to interim OC Mike Bajakian.
“It’s been a hard thing to go through, I committed here to play under coach Lud,” Wilson said early in the week. “... We got to keep moving forward. With this three-game drought, we’ve got to (get) back to winning.”
Bajakian said it’s been a tough day because he came to Utah to learn from Andy Ludwig. He wanted to work with one of the best minds in the game.
— Josh Furlong (@JFurKSL) October 22, 2024
But at the same time he recognizes that this is about the players and helping them get back to winning ways.
It’s been a three-game drought in which Utah has averaged 12 points per game and not against particularly strong defenses, those three opponents having an average rank of No. 54 in the current SP+ ratings.
Ludwig’s departure won't fix all of that, certainly not now against a strong defensive mind like Houston head coach Willie Fritz. The Cougars have been undone by their offense this season, not their defense, holding three Power Four opponents to 20 points or fewer.
The safe bet in this game would be the Under 37 (-112 at DraftKings), but when the visiting offense is this doubted and facing a defense-first home team, the variance of a low-scoring game creates value in the home underdog.
The premise here is not to be safe. The premise here is to always find the value.
Oklahoma team total Under 13.5
Best odds: +100 at bet365
Another offensive coordinator gone, another offense to fade. The Oklahoma Sooners fired Seth Littrell this week, a bit more of an expected move than Ludwig’s departure. Littrell didn't find an ounce of success in his first season as Oklahoma’s OC, a failure becoming more and more publicly scrutinized as he tried to jump between QBs Jackson Arnold and Michael Hawkins Jr.
How many quarterbacks does Oklahoma have? pic.twitter.com/p3X5mfQgOn
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) October 24, 2024
Sooners head coach Brent Venables has now said Arnold will again be Oklahoma’s starting QB after ceding the gig for two-plus games. Apparently, his reserve appearance against South Carolina was enough to flip this conversation back toward him. Obviously, going 18 of 36 for 225 yards and one score in a 35-9 loss was convincing.
You see the issue here.
The issue is the Sooners’ problem is not at quarterback but at offensive line. Littrell failed to build a competent offensive front, and no offense can survive that critical error in the SEC.
Mississippi may not be known for its defense. Still, its defensive front is better than usual this year, and that is enough of an endorsement to expect another doomed offensive showing from Oklahoma.
Most notably, Mississippi limits opponents where it matters most, holding them to 1.6 points per quality drive, the top-scoring territory defense in the country, per cfb-graphs. The Sooners average just 2.99 points per quality drive, No. 110 in the country.
Even when Oklahoma and Arnold get into range of the goal line this weekend, expect failure.
Notre Dame vs. Navy Over 50
Best odds: -110 at Caesars
Rarely is a missing cornerback a concern against a service academy, but Notre Dame losing junior All-American cornerback Benjamin Morrison will stick out against this particular version of the Midshipmen offense.
Freshman Leonard Moore has played well and looks the part of a multi-year starter, but he never had to study the triple-option before, let alone one that has developed an explosive passing game. And if Moore gets burned once, that should propel this game toward its Over.
On the other side of the ball, Notre Dame’s offense has found a groove of late, averaging 37 points per game in the last three contests. The Irish are leaning into their running game, sitting at No. 5 in expected points added (EPA) per rush. And that run game should be particularly effective against Navy.
That is not a knock on the Midshipmen. But Notre Dame’s offensive line will have a significant size advantage this weekend, and star sophomore running back Jeremiyah Love will have a distinct speed advantage.
There are reasons Navy’s defense ranks No. 69 in EPA per rush against and No. 96 in rushing success rate against. Those same reasons are why opponents run against the Midshipmen 5.6% more often than average teams would in given game states.
ND will find points this weekend, some of them via explosive plays. This delightful Navy offense will also find a couple of explosive plays, and those chunk gains will speed up the game more than usually seen from a triple-option offense.
Missouri Team Total Under 16.5
Best odds: -102 at FanDuel
Perhaps Missouri Tigers starting QB Brady Cook will play this weekend — and getting this number a hook below 17 will look foolish — but fighting through an ankle injury swollen up could be more difficult than playing through it on adrenaline in a chaotic 14-point comeback against Auburn last week.
Sources: Missouri quarterback Brady Cook is considered doubtful for the game at Alabama this week with an ankle injury. He’s been “extremely limited” in practice so far this week. He still may try and ramp up later in the week to attempt to play, but the outlook is pessimistic. pic.twitter.com/tNZa3Wcmk2
— Pete Thamel (@PeteThamel) October 23, 2024
First of all, Cook didn't play well, going 11 of 22 for 194 yards after injuring his ankle. Playing on the road will make life a touch more frustrating than playing at home, let alone against a much better defensive front.
Second of all, logic says the midweek report had some validity, and Missouri will need to turn to Drew Pyne this weekend. Pyne has underrated mobility, so he will not be an easy mark for the Tide defensive front seven, but he also has a weaker arm, and that should prove costly against Alabama.
There was a reason he went 10 of 21 for 78 yards against the Tigers. And to reiterate, Auburn’s passing defense ranks No. 90 in EPA, compared to Alabama’s No. 15 ranking.
Either Cook will be more confined to the pocket than usual, allowing the Tide to hone in on the pass rush, or Pyne will be scrambling against pressure and throwing weaker passes than should be risked against Alabama.
Both scenarios suggest Missouri’s offense is doomed this week. The saving grace for the Tigers is they're 6-1, and the rest of the schedule sets up for a strong run at 10-2. A two-loss season would keep Missouri’s Playoff hopes alive. Which is to say, there are also long-term reasoning to get Cook healthy, particularly with an idle week coming after this presumed loss.
Cincinnati +6.5 at Colorado
Best odds: -102 at FanDuel
Full disclosure: This last bet was rewritten after the first draft of this column, just before submitting this column to the Covers editorial desk.
It had been a Cincinnati Bearcats moneyline of about +185. But back then, the spread was only +5.5. Let’s shift the approach since the spread has crossed a key number, partly thanks to heavier bets as limits were raised later in the week and partly thanks to positive news about Travis Hunter’s availability.
A third plus-money bet joins the scrap heap, now that Cincinnati is +6.5.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) October 24, 2024
Best Bets column takes the key number rather than the moneyline.
That same encouraging news a week ago suggested Hunter was set to play, and then he played only a half. Take Deion Sanders’s health reports with many pieces of skepticism.
Furthermore, it's time to sell high on Colorado. The Buffaloes have been playing better of late, let’s all acknowledge that. No critic, not even yours truly, should claim otherwise. There was a reason this column ended with a profitable moneyline bet on Colorado last week, a +120 upset at Arizona.
That reason was the Wildcats have a woeful defensive front. With that subsequent time, Shedeur Sanders could star, going 23-for-33 with 250 passing yards and two touchdowns.
But Cincinnati has a stout defensive front, one led by tackle Dontay Corleone. The Bearcats excel at preventing explosive plays, a bit of a Buffaloes’ necessity. And Cincinnati clamps down where it matters most, ranking No. 5 in the country in points allowed per quality drive at just 2.16.
These are the keys for an upset — preventing explosive plays and stymying drives in scoring territory — but they also make this +6.5 too distinct to avoid. Crossing that key number created a more conservative play here, but one clearly still believed in.
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