Coming off their biggest win of the season, the Ohio State Buckeyes take on a Purdue Boilermakers team that’s lost seven straight games and is among the worst in the Power Four.
With the Buckeyes’ dominating defense and the Boilermakers’ inept offense, I expect the Under to be in play in my Purdue vs. Ohio State predictions and college football picks for this noon FOX kickoff on Saturday, November 9.
Purdue vs Ohio State prediction and best bet
My best bet
Under 53.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
Betting this Under has everything to do with the way this Ohio State Buckeyes defense matches up with this Purdue Boilermakers offense. Keep in mind, the Buckeyes have held every opponent they’ve played to 17 points or fewer, except Oregon.
I'm not worried about Purdue (No. 93 in SP+) matching Oregon's (No. 2) production when Penn State's offense (No. 16) only scored six points — the other seven coming on a pick-6.
The Buckeyes are allowing the third-fewest points per game in the country (12.0) and rank No. 1 in SP+ on defense. If you take out the 32 they gave up to Oregon, Ohio State has allowed just 9.1 points per game this season.
Meanwhile, Purdue is 119th out of 134 in points per game (20.2), and against defenses they’ve faced that rank Top 25 in SP+ — Notre Dame, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Oregon — the Boilermakers are averaging just 5.7 points per game.
These are not the Spoilermakers most Buckeyes fans have come to know, with this offense unlikely to be able to move the ball at all. Purdue ranks 120th in EPA per rush and 108th in EPA per dropback — Ohio State ranks Top 3 in both defensive categories.
That makes this arguably the worst offense Ohio State has faced this season. And while there’s a risk the Buckeyes could score enough for this Over to hit, I’m less concerned about that happening.
Ohio State has hit the Under in four of its last five games and has yet to score more than 38 points against a Power Four school. In Big Ten play, the Buckeyes are averaging 29 points per game.
Though this Purdue defense isn’t good, I don’t see Ohio State putting up more than 45 points. And Ryan Day will likely rotate backups in with a big lead against a lesser opponent a week after beating a Top-3 team.
Purdue vs Ohio State same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 53.5
Jeremiah Smith anytime touchdown
Quinshon Judkins Over 69.5 rushing yards
Even with this Under in good shape, Ohio State’s offensive stars are still poised to have strong performances — and true freshman Jeremiah Smith is bound to find the end zone for the 10th time this season.
He leads the team in touchdowns and has scored in seven of eight games. The only time he didn’t find the end zone was against a Penn State defense that’s second in SP+... Purdue’s defense is 103rd.
Smith’s also the most talented receiver the Boilermakers will face this season and ranks seventh in the country in yards per route run (3.30). He’s not the only future NFL player Purdue will have to try and stop, either.
Quinshon Judkins is coming off a 95-yard game against Penn State and can expose a Purdue defense that’s 129th in EPA per rush. He’s already run for 70+ in four of his last seven games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Purdue vs Ohio State odds
Purdue vs Ohio State live odds
Purdue vs Ohio State opening odds
- Purdue vs. Ohio State spread: Ohio State -38.5
- Purdue vs. Ohio State moneyline: Purdue +5,000, Ohio State -100,000
- Purdue vs. Ohio State Over/Under: 53.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
Purdue vs Ohio State spread and Over/Under analysis
- Ohio State opened as a 38.5-point favorite, with the Buckeyes sitting at -37.5 at most books as the game approaches.
- Purdue is one of the worst teams ATS in the country at 2-6, while Ohio State is 4-4.
- The Over/Under opened at 53.5 and has seen minimal movement, with most books sitting at 53 or 53.5.
- The Boilermakers are 5-3 to the Over, and the Buckeyes are 4-4.
Purdue vs Ohio State betting trend to know
Ohio State has stayed Under the total in five of its last eight home games for +1.70 units and a 19% ROI. Find more college football betting trends for Purdue vs Ohio State.
Purdue vs Ohio State game info
| Location: | Ohio Stadium, Columbus, OH |
| Date: | Saturday, 11-9, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
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