New ACC member the Stanford Cardinal will get their first taste of the conference's top tier when they play the Clemson Tigers at Memorial Stadium.
With the way the Tigers’ have bounced back after their opening game loss to Georgia, I expect these two teams to combine for plenty of points in my Stanford vs. Clemson predictions and college football picks for Saturday, September 28.
Stanford vs Clemson prediction
My best bet
Over 57.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
Clemson has been on fire since putting up just three points in a loss to Georgia in Week 1 — scoring 66 on App State and 59 on NC State.
This Stanford defense is in for a similar shellacking against a Clemson offense 12th in SP+ and averaging 617.5 total yards in its last two outings. With how the Tigers look offensively, they might be capable of cashing this Over on their own.
While running back Phil Mafah remains Clemson’s biggest threat on offense, it’s actually the passing game making the difference as of late. Cade Klubnik has totaled 11 touchdowns in his last two games, with eight of them coming through the air.
He has the Tigers ranked 25th in EPA per dropback on offense, and he ranks 13th in the country in big-time throws (seven) and seventh in adjusted completion rate (82.7%). His improved play has coincided with the emergence of a deep pass-catching group led by Antonio Williams and Jake Briningstool.
This offense will give Stanford plenty of issues. The Cardinal are just 85th in SP+ on defense and allow the fifth-most passing yards per game (298.7).
But for as bad as Stanford’s defense has been, its offense has been competent and should be able to do enough to help this Over hit.
In their two Power 4 games this season, the Cardinal are averaging 26.5 points per game, and QB Ashton Daniels has proven he’s willing to take an aggressive approach — especially when throwing to star receiver Elic Ayomanor.
Against an underachieving Clemson defense that’s 77th in EPA per dropback, I think Stanford should find its way into the end zone a handful of times, and this one will end in a 41-20 Clemson win.
Stanford vs Clemson same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 57.5
Phil Mafah 90+ rushing yards
Elic Ayomanor 70+ receiving yards
Without a doubt, Mafah is the most trustworthy weapon on this Clemson offense. After rushing for just 59 yards against Georgia, he’s exploded for a combined 225 yards on just 17 carries in his last two games.
Mafah’s averaging five yards after contact this season and has three 15+ yard runs in his last two games. That spells trouble for a Stanford defense that’s missed 26 tackles already this season and is just 83rd in EPA per rush.
But Mafah isn’t the only offensive player with an obvious NFL future in this matchup, as Stanford's go-to receiver, Elic Ayomanor, is one of the best in the country. Against Power 4 opponents this season, he’s averaging seven receptions for 94.5 yards.
Ayomanor will pose a major issue for a Clemson defense giving up the fourth-most passing yards per game in the ACC (249.7). He’s already pulled in three contested catches this season and should be capable of topping 70+ yards against a third straight P4 team.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Stanford vs Clemson odds
Stanford vs Clemson live odds
Stanford vs Clemson opening odds
- Stanford vs. Clemson spread: Clemson -22.5
- Stanford vs. Clemson moneyline: Stanford +1,000, Clemson -2,000
- Stanford vs. Clemson Over/Under: 57.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Stanford vs Clemson spread and Over/Under analysis
- After Clemson opened as a 22.5-point favorite, the line has since come down to -21.5 for the Tigers.
- Both Clemson and Stanford are 2-1 ATS this season.
- The Over/Under opened at 57.5 and while it did move up to 58.5, it’s back down to 57.5.
- The Tigers are 2-1 betting the Over this season, while the Cardinal are 1-2.
Stanford vs Clemson betting trend to know
Clemson has only hit the game total Under in two of its last 6 games at home (-2.40 Units / -36% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Stanford vs Clemson.
Stanford vs Clemson game info
| Location: | Memorial Stadium, Clemson, SC |
| Date: | Saturday, 9-28, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
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