The Notre Dame Fighting Irish come off their bye as heavy favorites vs. the Stanford Cardinal, but the Irish as heavy favorites isn't always a good thing in the Marcus Freeman era.
My Stanford vs. Notre Dame predictions dodge that worry and instead focus on the Cardinal offense, an improved unit deserving of attention in any college football picks for Saturday, October 12.
Stanford vs Notre Dame prediction and best bet
My best bet
Stanford team total Over 10.5 points (+110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
A few dueling trends come to mind when backing Notre Dame in this exact spot, ones specific to Marcus Freeman’s young coaching career.
The Irish are just 5-8 against the spread when favored by double digits against FBS competition under Freeman. Then again, they're 5-3 ATS after he started 0-5 in those obvious letdown moments.
Notre Dame is 8-7 ATS at home under Freeman... but 8-0 ATS when enjoying extra preparation time since the start of the 2022 season, the genuine start of the Freeman Era.
Call it cowardly, but let’s stay away from wondering if the Irish offense can score enough to cover this 23.5-point spread, a worry with a middling offense creating quality drives on only 36.7% of its possessions — No. 104 in the country.
Let’s instead endorse the Stanford Cardinal offense. First of all, and this will be repeated for years until the world appropriately understands, Stanford head coach Troy Taylor creates an offensive game plan that will riddle anyone upon first glance. It is a delight.
Second of all, quarterback Ashton Daniels’ return from injury will open up the Cardinal offense. When he's around, the team total should never be this low. Well, perhaps shy of facing Ohio State.
Clemson has a resoundingly stout defense, No. 23 in the current SP+ ratings, yet Stanford put together a methodical touchdown drive to end the first half against the Tigers, capped by Daniels finding star receiver Elic Ayomanor for a 19-yard score.
Daniels finished with only 71 passing yards on 9 of 19 passing, but he added 87 rushing yards. His dual-threat dynamism should create at least one scoring moment for the Cardinal against the Irish, and if that one converts, Stanford will be a garbage-time touchdown away from topping this team total.
Guess what happened at Clemson. Yes, a garbage-time touchdown.
Notre Dame might turn this into a rout. At that point, the Irish defensive reserves likely will give up the tally this bet needs. Notre Dame might also struggle to pull away, as it has many times against overmatched foes during the Freeman Era.
At that point, Stanford has enough talent to combine with imbued confidence to produce an additional score or two.
Stanford vs Notre Dame same-game parlay (SGP)
Stanford team total Over 10.5
Under 45.5
Elick Ayomanor Over 39.5 receiving yards
Combining the Stanford team total Over with this Under 45.5 skews the same-game parlay payout for rather obvious reasons, but look at this parlay in simpler terms.
The idea of Stanford scoring more than 10 points was not shocking above. How astonishing would it be if the Irish failed to reach 35 points for the fifth time this season in their sixth game?
The only time Notre Dame’s offense has looked effective was at Purdue, and the Boilermakers should be considered the worst team in the Power Four conferences. Beating up on Purdue is less impressive than beating up on UConn or San Jose State or — this is not a joke — FCS-level Delaware.
Adding Elick Ayomanor to have at least 40 receiving yards is hardly a stretch, considering he has had at least 45 in every game with Daniels at QB. Ayomanor would start at every program in the country, including Alabama. No matter how good the Irish secondary is, Ayomanor should still fill the stats sheet.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Stanford vs Notre Dame odds
Stanford vs Notre Dame live odds
Stanford vs Notre Dame opening odds
- Stanford vs. Notre Dame spread: Notre Dame -21.5
- Stanford vs. Notre Dame moneyline: Stanford +1,000, Notre Dame -2,000
- Stanford vs. Notre Dame Over/Under: 46.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Stanford vs Notre Dame spread and Over/Under analysis
- The first genuine lines on Sunday opened with Notre Dame a bold 23-point favorite, despite some stale lookaheads remaining below three touchdowns.
- After that genuine open, this spread climbed to -23.5 by the end of Sunday and stuck there aside from some Wednesday dalliances with -24.
- The total opened at 46.5 on Sunday, only to fall to 45.5 that afternoon. It refused to fall to the key number of 45 throughout the week.
Stanford vs Notre Dame betting trend to know
Stanford’s last four games have all gone Under their pregame totals and by an average of nine points. Find more college football betting trends for Stanford vs Notre Dame.
Stanford vs Notre Dame game info
| Location: | Notre Dame Stadium, Notre Dame, IN |
| Date: | Saturday, 10-12, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBC |
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