Oh, the fans in Austin so badly want to cry out “Texas is back.”
But before the Texas Longhorns can officially be back, they need to win their first Big 12 Championship Game since 2009. And to secure a spot in the title game, the Longhorns need a win against the visiting Texas Tech Red Raiders tonight.
The Red Raiders would love to upset the apple cart and come into this game with confidence having won three games in a row. Can they keep this game within the two-touchdown spread or is Texas (almost) back and taking care of business?
I break down the college football odds and find the best bet in my college football picks for Texas Tech vs. Texas.
Texas Tech vs Texas best odds
Texas Tech vs Texas picks and predictions
There are some crazy scenarios on the table when it comes to the Big 12 Championship Game heading into Rivalry Week, but one thing is clear: if the Texas Longhorns win, they're in.
More than that, the Longhorns need to dominate on their way to a conference title if they want to make the College Football Playoff as a one-loss team. Luckily, they also have arguably the best win of the college football season — a win against Alabama in Tuscaloosa.
So, the next step is a win over the Texas Tech Red Raiders. Texas has won five games in a row since its loss to Oklahoma in the Red River Showdown but has had some close calls since then.
That said, quarterback Quinn Ewers looks healthy and put up a strong performance last week against Iowa State in Ames, a place where the Longhorns have traditionally struggled. Ewers threw for 281 yards completing nearly 70% of his passes for two touchdowns and no picks.
With Xavier Worthy and Adonai Mitchell, the Longhorns boast one of the best passing attacks in the country. Texas ranks 10th in EPA/pass and 20th in passing success rate. That should give it an edge in this matchup.
The Red Raiders, on the other hand, were 3-5 a few weeks ago but have rattled off three wins in a row over TCU, Kansas, and UCF. All were hard-fought wins, coming by a combined 11 points.
While the Texas Tech offense has looked better of late, the defense is still middling. The Red Raiders rank 56th in opponent yards per play, 68th in passing yards per game, and 71st in defensive success rate vs. the pass.
And you can make the case they haven’t played a good offense since facing Kansas State more than a month ago, a game they lost 38-21. Now, they face a Longhorns team that averages 35.2 points per game at home this season.
But like I said, it’s more than that. Texas not only needs the win but it's about the style points as well. I’m betting the Longhorns to go Over their team total in this one.
My best bet: Texas team total Over 33.5 (-115 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
Texas Tech vs Texas same-game parlay
Texas team total Over 33.5
Quinn Ewers Over 266.5 passing yards
Xavier Worthy anytime TD
Adonai Mitchell anytime TD
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As per usual, our same-game parlay kicks off with our best bet, but how will the Longhorns get there?
As I noted, I think the passing game will be the key to the Longhorns’ success. The obvious thing to add here is Quinn Ewers to go Over his passing yards. This is a number he’s eclipsed in both games since returning from this injury and has only fallen below it twice in his last eight games.
And let’s get crazy by closing this SGP out by taking both Worthy and Mitchell to find the end zone. Mithell has nine touchdowns while Worthy has four. As I said, style points matter.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Texas Tech vs Texas spread and Over/Under analysis
Texas opened this pivotal Big 12 matchup as 14-point home chalk, however, Texas Tech has seen the early action, moving the line slightly to 13.5.
The same reasoning for Texas to go Over its team total can be applied to the spread as well. Texas not only needs to win but win big and at just under two touchdowns, it feels like there's some value with the Longhorns here.
When it comes to the total, that opened at 53 and has been bet down slightly to 52.5. Considering I’m on Texas to go Over its team total, I'd lean toward the full-game Over as well. Texas has a strong defense but we’ve seen it surrender 26+ points in matchups against TCU, Kansas State, and Oklahoma this year.
With Behren Morton under center, Texas Tech’s offense is balanced enough to put enough points on the board to send this Over the number.
Texas Tech vs Texas betting trend to know
Texas Tech and Texas have played to the Over in five consecutive meetings. Find more college football betting trends for Texas Tech vs Texas.
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Texas Tech vs Texas game info
| Location: | DKR-Texas Stadium, Austin, TX |
| Date: | Friday, November 24, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ABC |
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