Not to be dramatic, but the No. 3 Texas Longhorns may need to start showing off. While the Arkansas Razorbacks are only 5-4, a dominant showing on the road anywhere in the SEC outside of Starkville will warrant notice from the College Football Playoff selection committee.
The Longhorns may have only one loss on the season, but they also lack any loudly impressive wins. My Texas vs. Arkansas predictions expect the Longhorns to keep that worry in mind, any free college football picks needing to understand the underlying ramifications of the 12-team Playoff.
Kickoff comes at 12:00 p.m. ET on ABC this afternoon.
Texas vs Arkansas prediction and best bet
Who will win Texas vs Arkansas?
Not that every team doesn't want to win every Saturday, but some weeks carry more motivation than others. As odd as this may sound, Arkansas is lacking that added motivation this week, while Texas has a bounty of it.
The Razorbacks are 5-4, with games against Louisiana Tech and Missouri awaiting. Bowl eligibility should come. And they have already buoyed Sam Pittman’s record enough to keep his buyout lofty, lessening the odds of him being fired. (If Pittman is below .500 since the start of the 2021 season, his buyout is halved; he is currently three games above.)
Recognizing that lack of particular urgency, Arkansas may lack the aggression needed to turn a heavy favorite sideways. The Longhorns are heavy favorites for a reason; the Razorbacks will not turn that akilter this weekend.
My best bet
Texas -12.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
This may be where the dramatic thoughts show up, but if studied in calm, it will be realized they should be a Texas worry.
The Longhorns end the season in College Station, their first matchup with Texas A&M since 2011. The 12th Man will be hollering for blood, and everyone knows that already. This is not to say Texas will lose that rivalry game, but it is to say it is distinctly possible.
And if the Longhorns fall in that regular-season finale, their Playoff bid could fall. Texas has beaten exactly one Power Four opponent with a record above .500 this season: Vanderbilt. Collecting scalps of middling SEC teams does not a Playoff résumé make.
At least, it should not.
The Longhorns need to make more of those wins emphatic. For the most part, they have been. Three of Texas’s four SEC wins have been by at least 22 points, two of them coming against teams rather comparable to Arkansas in overall quality.
Given the Razorbacks’ lesser half is their defense, the Longhorns should find their way to another three-score win. Arkansas’s weakest single piece is its passing defense, No. 113 in dropback success rate and No. 80 expected points added (EPA) per dropback against, according to cfb-graphs.
Texas prefers to pass the ball, doing so 5.9% more often than the average team would in a given game state, the 11th-highest rate in the country. The Longhorns should score aplenty, and with one of the top defenses in the country, there should be little worry about them giving up a bounty of points to Arkansas.
Texas vs Arkansas same-game parlay (SGP)
Texas -12.5
Over 57.5
Quinn Ewers 275+ passing yards
If much of the premise of this bet is trusting Texas realizes its Playoff qualifications are a bit more lacking than its record suggests, then the Longhorns should score enough to push this game toward its Over. Furthermore, Arkansas’s last two games have both gone Over their totals, largely because the Razorbacks’ defense loosened up.
Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers has easily cleared this prop in each of his last two games, furthering the thought that the Longhorns know it is time to hit the gas pedal for appearances’ sake.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Texas vs Arkansas odds
Texas vs Arkansas live odds
Texas vs Arkansas opening odds
- Texas vs. Arkansas spread: Arkansas +15.5
- Texas vs. Arkansas moneyline: Texas -700, Arkansas +500
- Texas vs. Arkansas Over/Under: 56.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
Texas vs Arkansas spread and Over/Under analysis
- Ambitious summer lookahead lines set Texas as a 16.5-point favorite, only to drop to -15 when it reopened more genuinely this past Sunday.
- Presumably partly because Arkansas quarterback Taylen Green was given the green light for the week, this line fell to -14.5 on Monday, -13.5 on Tuesday, and then down to -12.5 on Thursday.
- There is some joy in taking the best number of the week, particularly when it has crossed under two key numbers.
- This total opened at 57.5 on Sunday and quickly fell to 56.5.
Texas vs Arkansas betting trend to know
Though 4-0 against the spread on the road this season, Arkansas is just 1-3 ATS at home vs. FBS opponents. Find more college football betting trends for Texas vs Arkansas.
Texas vs Arkansas game info
| Location: | Razorback Stadium, Fayetteville, AR |
| Date: | Saturday, 11-16, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ABC |
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