Two Big Ten teams fighting for bowl eligibility clash Friday night in Seattle as the Washington Huskies host the UCLA Bruins.
Our UCLA vs. Washington predictions expect the home team to take advantage of the raucous environment at Husky Stadium, as it’ll be both a “blackout” and senior night.
Read more in my college football picks for Friday, November 15 below.
UCLA vs Washington prediction
Who will win UCLA vs Washington?
There may be some value in the UCLA Bruins against the spread in what should be a close game, but I have to go with the Washington Huskies. They'll be playing at home on Friday night in what should be a great atmosphere for the “blackout” game and senior night both in one.
I expect Jedd Fisch to put everything he has into preparing to win this contest, as it might be needed to secure bowl eligibility. The Huskies have five wins but round out the year with No. 1 Oregon, so a win on Friday night must be the first priority.
My best bet
Under 46.5 (-105 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
The Huskies have been a through-and-through Under team this season at 2-8 O/U. I’m betting on more of the same in Week 12 against a UCLA team that's 3-6 O/U.
Washington has moved the ball just fine, ranking 16th in success rate. There haven’t been many big plays to complement its ability to move the chains, however, as the Huskies rank just 124th in explosiveness.
Jedd Fisch’s squad has converted just 78.9% of its red-zone opportunities (103rd nationally). In 38 trips to the red zone, the Huskies have found the end zone just half the time (19).
UCLA’s defense has been beatable on a down-to-down basis (122nd in success rate) but has bottled up big plays (14th in explosiveness). Ikaika Malloe’s stop unit will once again look to keep a lid on things and force Washington to methodically drive to find scores, which should keep the clock ticking.
The Bruins have been terrific at stifling opposing rushing attacks, surrendering just 3.2 yards per rush. They haven’t allowed any opponent to top 155 rushing yards all year — No. 1 Oregon had the most at 153 yards on 36 attempts.
On the flip side, UCLA has struggled mightily on offense (102nd in EPA per play, 110th in success rate) but has seen a mini-revival lately, averaging 27.3 ppg in its last three outings.
Eric Bienemy’s offense prefers to keep the ball in the air (18th in pass rate), but finding success against a tough Washington secondary will be difficult. The Huskies have two fantastic corners in Ephesians Prysock and Thaddeus Dixon, and have superb metrics overall (second in EPA per pass, 14th in passing success rate, 12th in PFF’s coverage grade).
The Bruins look to slow things down offensively, ranking just 127th in plays per minute (1.95). The Huskies aren’t much faster, ranking 83rd with 2.17 plays per minute.
UCLA vs Washington same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 47.5
T.J. Harden 60+ rushing yards
Denzel Boston 50+ receiving yards
There are some player props set at low numbers for this contest, so I don’t find there to be a negative correlation between the full-game Under and any player prop Overs.
The read on Washington’s defense is that it’s elite against the pass but terrible against the rush. The Huskies are allowing 162.3 rushing yards per game on 4.5 yards per carry, and the underlying metrics aren’t favorable (103rd in EPA per rush, 112th in rushing success rate, 108th in line yards, 122nd in stuff rate, 133rd in front-seven havoc).
The Bruins have had a hard time running the ball for much of the year but saw T.J. Harden break out with 20 carries for 125 yards against Iowa last week. A matchup with Washington has been a cure-all for most rushing attacks.
On the flip side, receiver Denzel Boston leads his team in targets (83), receiving yards (717), and receiving touchdowns (9). He’s a talented player with solid metrics (78.0 PFF receiving grade, 2.01 yards per route run), and this isn’t a difficult matchup as the way to beat UCLA’s defense is through the air (90th in EPA per pass, 125th in passing success rate).
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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UCLA vs Washington odds
UCLA vs Washington live odds
UCLA vs Washington opening odds
- UCLA vs. Washington spread: Washington -3.5
- UCLA vs. Washington moneyline: UCLA +145, Washington -170
- UCLA vs. Washington Over/Under: 46.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
UCLA vs Washington spread and Over/Under analysis
- UCLA has been on a roll against the spread, covering in six of its last seven. The lone miss came by a single point against Minnesota on a last-second touchdown.
- UCLA has dominated this series, winning seven of the last 10 meetings while going 7-3 ATS. Going back a little further, UCLA is 15-5 SU in the last 20 meetings.
- Washington is just 3-6 ATS in its last nine games, but the Huskies have won 19 straight home games.
- UCLA has hit the Under in 12 of its last 16 games.
UCLA vs Washington betting trend to know
Washington has cashed the Under in 12 of its last 15 games. Find more college football betting trends for UCLA vs Washington.
UCLA vs Washington game info
| Location: | Husky Stadium, Seattle, WA |
| Date: | Friday, 11-15, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
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