The No. 23 UNLV Rebels will look to make good on their highest-ever ranking of the season when they face the San Jose State Spartans tonight.
The Rebels are still in the hunt for the Mountain West title but likely need to win out, which will add extra emphasis to my UNLV vs. San Jose State predictions for Friday, November 22.
Kickoff is scheduled for 10:00 p.m. ET at CEFCU Stadium in San Jose, with the game airing on FS1.
UNLV vs San Jose State prediction and best bet
Who will win UNLV vs San Jose State?
The UNLV Rebels are favored by just over a touchdown on the road. They’ve lost just once in conference play, and that came against the dominant force that is Boise State. The offense is moving and grooving, averaging 39.9 ppg, and the defense has held each of its last four opponents below 30 points.
They’re much more effective on the ground than the San Jose State Spartans, which should be a significant factor with rain in the forecast.
My best bet
Pick: Under 62.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
The weather forecast calls for rain and wind Friday night at CEFCU Stadium, which should impact how this game plays out. There’s a 92% chance of precipitation throughout the contest, with winds of 9.6 to 10.5 mph.
That type of weather report may not be super impactful for some teams — usually, you’re looking for winds of 13+ to impact totals, and rain sometimes does not have an adverse effect — but it will for these teams.
Ken Niumatalolo has had a darn fine first year with the San Jose State Spartans. His team has reached bowl eligibility despite dealing with a ton of turnover from last season’s co-regular season MWC champion squad. Some of that success can be attributed to the shrewd hire of Craig Stutzmann as offensive coordinator.
Stuzmann has installed a pass-happy scheme affectionately dubbed the “Spread-N-Shred”. The Spartans are throwing for a whopping 343.3 yards per game, throwing the ball often (second nationally in pass rate) and doing so efficiently (19th in both EPA per pass and passing success rate).
That gameplan becomes far more difficult when Mother Nature has other ideas. The Spartans essentially cannot run the ball, ranking 129th in EPA per rush, and therefore will likely not be at their best if rain is consistent throughout the contest as anticipated.
On the flip side, the UNLV Rebels like to keep the ball on the ground and are in no hurry whatsoever offensively. Offensive coordinator Brennan Marion’s Go-Go Offense ranks eighth nationally in rush rate and churns out 249.1 yards per game on the ground. UNLV ranks 70th in plays per minute and will likely look to slow things down on the road with a short week of rest against the lightning-quick Spartans.
While the Rebels will be happy to keep the ball on the ground, this isn’t a smash spot in that concern. The Spartans have been effective against opposing ground games, ranking 20th in EPA per rush, 25th in rushing success rate, and 14th in rushing explosiveness. They’ve been a surprisingly stout unit overall this year, ranking 31st in EPA per play.
The Spartans are 1-4 O/U in their last five games. Their offense will be put into question by the elements and they’re facing a team that wants to keep the ball on the ground. I’m betting on the Under in a game where the weather should play a factor.
UNLV vs San Jose State same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 62.5
UNLV -7.5
Justin Lockhart anytime touchdown
UNLV has been a wagon in Mountain West play, easily handling business in every game other than the Boise State and Hawaii contests. The Broncos' loss was understandable, and it was a close game, whereas the surprisingly narrow 2-point win over Hawaii was still a game where the Rebels gained 98 more total yards than their opponent.
San Jose State’s metrics are thrown out of wack by its dominant first three games of the season. The defense has regressed lately, while the offense has gained a lot of yardage without lighting up the scoreboard, failing to score more than 24 points in a game since October 5.
While the rain will play a factor in this game overall, there are still expected to be a decent amount of points scored and there’s value in San Jose State wide receiver Justin Lockhart’s anytime touchdown prop. He’s seen 6+ targets in every game since Week 3 and has been nearly as effective as star teammate Nick Nash lately, averaging 130.5 receiving yards over his last four games.
Lockhart received 16 targets last game, taking them for 10 receptions for 172 yards and a score. He’s been very effective, averaging 2.27 yards per route run, and is likely to see some positive touchdown regression come his way.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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UNLV vs San Jose State odds
UNLV vs San Jose State live odds
UNLV vs San Jose State opening odds
- UNLV vs. San Jose State spread: San Jose State +7.5
- UNLV vs. San Jose State moneyline: UNLV -280, San Jose State +230
- UNLV vs. San Jose State Over/Under: 63
Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
UNLV vs San Jose State spread and Over/Under analysis
- San Jose State is 0-5 ATS in its last five conference games.
- UNLV has won seven straight road games.
- San Jose State is hosting ranked teams on back-to-back weeks for the first time in program history, so it’s fair to say the competition level has stepped up a notch. UNLV is 2-4 O/U in its last six games where the total has been in the 60s.
- 57% of Covers Consensus users are backing UNLV on the spread, while 55% are taking the Over.
UNLV vs San Jose State betting trend to know
San Jose State is 1-4 O/U in its last five games. Find more college football betting trends for UNLV vs San Jose State.
How to watch UNLV vs San Jose State
| Location: | CEFCU Stadium, San Jose, CA |
| Date: | Friday, 11-22, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FS1 |
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UNLV vs San Jose State weather
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