NCAAF Underdog Picks of the Week: Mountaineers Add to Knights' Misery

Sam Houston moneyline 

Best odds: +180 at BetMGM

The Jacksonville State Gamecocks’ defense has looked like Swiss cheese the past two games, and a repeat performance on Saturday could see the Gamecocks lose their first Conference USA game this season.

It took overtime for the Gamecocks to defeat Louisiana Tech on the road two weeks ago. Last week, FIU took them to the wire, taking the lead in the fourth quarter before a touchdown with 10 minutes remaining sealed the 3-point win.

The problem for Jacksonville State is that a quick-strike offense is great until it puts your defense right back on the field. And doing that against the Sam Houston State Bearkats could be a recipe for disaster. 

The Bearkats don’t want to be involved in a shootout. They want to grind out long drives, wear down opposing defenses, and keep the opposing offense on the sideline. They rank 20th in time of possession and 32nd in plays per game. They also rank eighth with just over 44 rushing attempts per contest, gaining nearly 200 yards on the ground on average.

The Gamecocks have struggled to stop the run, with opponents averaging 4.3 yards per carry and 42.8 attempts per game. Conference USA teams are averaging 4.3 ypc and 175.3 yards per game against them as well, as they rank 94th in early down EPA/play defensively.

And while Jacksonville State leads all C-USA teams in yards per carry, it’s facing a Bearkat defense allowing conference opponents to average just 3.08 yards per attempt. Sam Houston State also averages over six tackles for loss per conference outing, and ranks 29th defensively in EPA/pass.

Sam Houston State doesn’t turn the ball over, doesn’t commit many penalties, and plays keep-away with the ball. If the Gamecocks can’t stop the run, their margin for error is small. The Bearkats may only need one stop to give themselves enough edge to pull off the upset and take control of their C-USA destiny. 

West Virginia moneyline

Best odds: +130 at bet365

Despite winning just one of its last seven contests, the Central Florida Knights roll into Morgantown as favorites against the West Virginia Mountaineers. 

Granted, three of those defeats have been by less than a touchdown, and they’ve lost to the likes of Colorado, Iowa State, BYU, and Arizona State during that run. But they’ve also only beaten one team since mid-September, a home thrashing of an Arizona squad that sits 2-5 in Big 12 play. 

Playing close games is nice, but eventually you’ve got to find a way to win one of them.

West Virginia has done that. The Mountaineers went on the road and beat that same Arizona team a few weeks ago, and followed it up with a touchdown win on the road over rival Cincinnati. 

Their loss to Baylor last week had the feel of being worn down by the emotions of the previous week, and simply being a bad matchup for the Mountaineer pass defense. It’s been the weakness on that side of the ball, and it’s an area where UCF — while improved over the past month — still finds consistency an issue.

The Knights win by running the ball, plain and simple. They’ve yet to win a game this season where they haven’t gained at least 200 yards on the ground, and they rank second in EPA/rush and 11th in early down success. West Virginia hasn’t performed well defensively at times, but does rank 46th in EPA/rush and 17th in success rate against. 

It’s the other side of the coin where I see the Mountaineers getting the upset. UCF’s pass defense is horrible, ranked 101st in success rate and 82nd in EPA/pass. West Virginia also wants to run the football more than it throws it, but teams have beaten UCF by punishing the secondary with big plays downfield.

I expect this to be a tight game, and that means it likely comes down to the final possessions. While Dylan Rizk had a solid game last week, the Knights still couldn’t pull out a close game. Garrett Greene showed against Kansas that he’s capable of leading a winning drive, and that edge will be the difference in front of a rowdy Senior Day crowd with bowl eligibility on the line. 

Pittsburgh moneyline

Best odds: +240 at bet365

The availability of Eli Holstein is great news for the Pittsburgh Panthers, and Pat Narduzzi’s decision not to name a starter on Thursday means the Louisville Cardinals must prepare for both he and backup Nate Yarnell. It also provides the Panthers with two different options for moving the ball through the air, something that will be key against the Cardinals.

The Panthers and Desmond Reid rank 10th in EPA/rush, despite sitting 56th in success rate. But they’re facing a Louisville defense ranked 70th in success rate against the run, 72nd in EPA/rush, and 77th in early down EPA/play. 

More importantly, the Louisville defense has been allowing big plays throughout the season. This is especially true in the passing game, with teams posting a 1.63 EPA on successful passes. Louisville have allowed 14 completions of 30+ yards, the second-most of any team in ACC play, and their 10 throws allowed of 40+ yards are the most allowed to conference opponents.

While Louisville’s offense has found success with big plays, Tyler Shough thrives off play-action. He’s got 11 touchdowns to no picks on 152 play fakes, versus just a 10:6 ratio from 219 standard drop-backs. Staying in front of the chains has been crucial, as the Cards are third nationally in early down EPA.

With Isaac Brown questionable, it puts more pressure on Louisville’s ground game to open up the play action game. His ability to bust big plays will be vital for the Cardinals, especially against a Pitt defense ranked 18th in EPA/rush and 32nd in EPA on early downs. 

The Cardinals have struggled mightily when forced to put together long drives, and head coach Jeff Brohm has shown an inability to manage close games with some questionable decisions in the clutch. If they can get the ground game going, they’ll be able to hurt Pitt’s pass defense with big plays downfield. 

But if Pitt stops the run as I expect they will, then Shough will have to face one of the better pass rushing units in college football with a sack rate over 9%. Look for the Panthers to win the battle in the trenches and end their three-game losing streak with an upset.