NCAAF Underdog Picks of the Week: Red Raiders Get Back in the Saddle

Texas Tech moneyline

Best odds: +200 at BetMGM

A week after backing the TCU Horned Frogs to pull off the upset over Utah, I’m taking them to be on the receiving end of an underdog story. The Battle for the Saddle Trophy — is that not an awesome name for a rivalry?! — sees the Texas Tech Red Raiders ticked off after a thumping at the hands of Baylor, and I think they’re being undervalued.

TCU’s win was just its second in five games, and while it was an important win, I’m not sure it was all that impressive. Utah’s offensive struggles (more on that later) allowed the Horned Frogs to win a game in which it scored just 13 points. Considering Utah allowed 27 and 23 in its previous two games to Arizona State and Arizona, respectively, this concerns me.

More worrisome was TCU’s inability to convert on third down and continue drives. Just four of its 17 third-down attempts were successful on the day, an important factor as to why TCU failed to score more points despite outgaining Utah 403-267 in total offense.

Texas Tech’s defense has been taken advantage of this year especially through the air, and TCU will likely find more points here. But one way to limit that damage is to keep Josh Hoover on the sideline, and that’s where Tahj Brooks comes into play.

The Red Raiders have an outstanding offensive unit that has found success throwing and running the ball, and Brooks is doing work behind an offensive line providing 3.2 yards per rush. He did his part against Baylor with 125 rushing yards, and he comes into this contest having racked up 105 carries over TTU’s last four games.

Against Big 12 opponents, TCU is allowing 4.63 ypc and almost 182 rushing yards per game — and that’s despite Utah gaining just 68 yards on 26 carries. TCU’s defense also ranks 116th in EPA/rush.

I’m expecting a shootout here, but only one of these teams can run the ball consistently if they need to run clock and protect a lead. Texas Tech lost last week because it lost the turnover battle, something it rarely does. TCU is averaging 2.5 turnovers a contest, and can’t afford to be sloppy in this one.

Texas Tech has been an underdog just once this season, when it went on the road and won outright at Arizona while getting 5.5 points. Look for the Red Raiders to repeat that feat on Saturday. 

Michigan State moneyline

Best odds: +170 at Caesars

When I broke down the Michigan Wolverines' game with Illinois in my preview last week, I was pretty harsh on the passing game for the Wolverines and how bad it’s been. Watching the game in its entirety, I walked away with a whole new respect for just how awful it is.

Jack Tuttle ended up with over 200 passing yards, but nearly 70 of those came in the final minute of the game. Before that came numerous overthrows, underthrows, passes that were too far out in front of receivers or thrown just behind them. 

And oddly enough, the Michigan coaching staff decided to keep calling pass plays rather than feeding Kalel Mullings and Donovan Edwards. I was shocked by the number of first down pass plays called, as Michigan ended with an even split on early downs with 26 passes and 26 runs.

It worked in Illinois’ favor, as the Illini were able to keep the Wolverines behind the chains on numerous occasions and limit them to just five third-down conversions in 14 attempts. They also forced Tuttle to throw an interception as he ended with a QBR of just 22.0 for the day.

Illinois didn’t have a ton of success on offense, but Luke Altmyer was able to make up for his rough passing day by making plays with his legs. He gained 48 yards on 10 carries, including a 17 yard scamper, and also ran one in from a yard out. 

That’s where Aidan Chiles will be able to cause some problems. The Michigan State Spartans quarterback had his best passing game of the season last week, completing 22 of 30 throws for 256 yards with a touchdown and a pick. He also gained 51 yards on 11 carries, the second time he’s topped 50 yards in his last four games. 

Michigan has yet to name a starting quarterback for this game, and could be missing star corner Will Johnson on defense. It’s a defense that, while solid, is more like the Iowa unit Chiles faced last week than the Oregon and Ohio State defenses he’s struggled against.

Sparty has won five of its last eight visits to the Big House and are coming into this one feeling confident with no questions as to who its quarterback is. Chiles and Nick Marsh will come up with a few big pass plays, Jonathan Kim will make a few more clutch kicks, and Michigan State’s run defense — ranked 26th in success rate — will make enough stops against a one-dimensional Wolverine offense to secure the upset victory.

Houston moneyline

Best odds: +150 at DraftKings

I mentioned earlier that I picked TCU to win last week as an underdog against the Utah Utes in large part because I felt the offense could find big plays. What I didn’t anticipate was Utah’s offense being so pitiful that it made the Horned Frogs look like they actually had a solid defense.

The loss was compounded by the sudden resignation of Utah offensive coordinator Andy Ludwig, whose departure was announced on Sunday night. Based on the reactions of the Utah players, it was not only unexpected but wasn’t a popular move in the locker room.

It’s also not a move that I think will resurrect the flailing Utah offense, especially against a solid Houston Cougars defense. The Cougars were repeatedly hurt last week by the big play in their 42-14 loss to Kansas, with four different Jayhawk receivers hauling in passes of 29+ yards. 

Regardless of the quarterback, Utah’s passing offense has been putrid in conference play. Against Big 12 opponents, the Utes rank dead-last in the conference in passer rating, completion percentage, and third-down conversion rate. 

The third down success — or lack thereof — is of particular importance, as the Utes are averaging more than 15 attempts per game in conference play, the most of any team in the Big 12. On the season, the Utes rank 127th in 3rd/4th down success, and 112th in EPA/pass. 

Houston’s offense might be just as bad, and possibly worse. But Utah’s defense isn’t built to take advantage of the biggest issue the Cougars have, which is their inability to protect the quarterback.

The Utes rank 122nd in sack rate, and have just five sacks in five conference games. When kept clean, Houston’s quarterbacks have been able to produce decent numbers, and that’ll be key for whichever signal caller the team goes with on Saturday.

The total for this game continues to tick downwards, and at 36.5 points (as of Thursday night) it’s expected to be a very low-scoring affair. For me, Utah doesn’t deserve the price it’s getting, and Houston presents a ton of value for an upset. 

The Cougars likely aren’t as bad as the numbers indicate, having faced a Top 10 strength of schedule this season. They put 30 points on TCU in their upset win a few weeks ago. Look for them to pounce on a reeling Utah team and get the win.