One of the better cross-country matchups in college football will for the first time be a conference battle when the USC Trojans visit the Michigan Wolverines in a Big Ten clash on Saturday afternoon. When programs like these face-off, it’s a great opportunity to find player props for us to bet on.
In my USC vs Michigan predictions and free college football picks, I’ll take a look at how Wolverines quarterback Alex Orji will perform in his first collegiate start, while also checking on a couple of the playmakers in the running game to see how they’ll impact this marquee matchup.
USC vs Michigan props for Week 4
- Woody Marks Over 57.5 rushing yards (-115at BetMGM)
- Alex Orji Under 129.5 passing yards (-115 at BetMGM)
- Kalel Mullings anytime touchdown (+125 at BetMGM)
Picks made on 9-21.
Read full analysis of each pick.
USC vs Michigan college football player props
Prop bet #1: Woody Marks Over 57.5 rushing yards
After four years of solid production with the Mississippi State Bulldogs, Woody Marks moved to USC for his senior year. The California weather seems to be treating him well, as the running back has run for 171 yards and three touchdowns in his first two games with the Trojans.
Marks put up huge numbers against the Utah State Aggies last week, though that production could be dismissed as part of a 48-0 blowout against an uncompetitive opponent. But that same criticism can’t be levied at his performance vs. the LSU Tigers, where he scored twice and rushed for 68 yards in a big win for the Trojans.
Michigan did hold the Fresno State Bulldogs to just nine rushing yards on 22 attempts last week. But the Wolverines had far less success in their one game against a Top 25 opponent, allowing the Texas Longhorns to run for 143 yards and an average of 4.5 yards per carry.
Marks and the USC offensive line should pose a similar challenge for Michigan. Marks will also get opportunities to rack up extra yards once USC likely holds a lead in the second half. With a total of less than 60 yards, I’m taking Marks to his the Over on his rushing yardage prop.
Prop bet #2: Alex Orji Under 129.5 passing yards
Alex Orji came into Michigan as a promising dual-threat quarterback, noted for his size and athleticism. After senior quarterback Davis Warren struggled through the first three games of the season, Wolverines coach Sherrone Moore decided to move to Orji, allowing him to make his first start in a huge spot against USC.
Orji has gotten some limited play during his first three years at Michigan. That’s mostly been as a ball carrier, as he has run for 181 yards and three touchdowns in 31 carries. That includes already having 10 carries so far this year.
But Michigan hasn’t allowed Orji to throw the ball in any real way so far in his career. The junior is 4-for-7 as a passer for his career, and while that includes two touchdown passes this year, he has thrown for a total of 20 yards – not exactly an indication that he can push the ball down the field, even given the small sample.
Oddsmakers have responded to this data by giving Orji an unusually low total on his passing yardage. I still don’t think this number is low enough for someone who has never proven he can be a passer at the college level. I expect Orji to mostly look to run downhill at the Trojans, leaving him with precious few passing yards. The Under is the play until Orji proves otherwise.
Prop bet #3: Kalel Mullings
Michigan is going to have to find a way to generate some offense on Saturday, and that’s likely to come through the running game. Thankfully, the Wolverines have plenty of weapons to deploy on the ground, with Orji likely to add some variety to that attack.
But the primary ball carriers will continue to be Kalel Mullings and Donovan Edwards, who have perfectly split the carries so far this season. Of the two, Mullings has been the more successful, picking up 270 yards and averaging 7.5 yards per carry.
Mullings scored twice against a surprisingly stern Arkansas State Red Wolves defense last week while piling on 153 yards. That has me looking at Mullings as the more likely back to do damage against USC. The Trojans aren’t exactly lights out against the run, giving up 200 yards on the ground over their first two games.
If Michigan finds success on Saturday, it will be on the ground, and Mullings is the most likely beneficiary. I’m taking Mullings to find the endzone at plus money.
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