This may be our last chance to enjoy the value of the USC Trojans’ defense. Don’t roll your eyes, the Trojans’ defense is underappreciated and should be tailed in college football betting, especially against the woeful Minnesota Golden Gophers offense.
My USC vs. Minnesota predictions will take the cautious route of backing the Trojans’ defense. These college football picks appreciate a spread well below some key numbers. Kickoff comes at 7:30 ET on Saturday, October 5.
USC vs Minnesota prediction
My best bet
USC -8 (-115 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
USC’s 38-21 win against Wisconsin last week was the exact mold intended in this handicap, when the Trojans covered -13.5. For that matter, USC’s trip to Michigan two weeks ago came a foolish pick-six away from fitting this mold. Well, that pick-six and three explosive touchdown runs.
But this week, we don't lament the Wolverines' cover or the Badgers finding an 18-yard touchdown drive to crack their team total. We move forward with those handicaps reinforced by those flukes, if not necessarily broadly recognized. Getting over those betting losses brings value now.
Michigan’s three explosive rushes and Wisconsin’s 18-yard touchdown drive — along with one explosive scoring pass earlier in the game — have hidden some of USC’s defensive improvement under new coordinator D’Anton Lynn. That helps us now.
The Trojans’ defense fares best against the pass, to the extent that opponents try to avoid throwing against USC, instead rushing 6.1% more often than the average team would in a given game state, per cfb-graphs at collegefootballinsiders.com.
Those are the exact opposite of Minnesota’s usual tendencies, the Gophers being terrible passing the ball — no, really, ranking No. 121 in EPA per dropback, meaning Minnesota averages a worsened positioning after every called pass play — but still insisting on doing it 7.0% more than the average team would, the 22nd-highest rate in the country.
So the Gophers’ offensive options keep doing the thing they do too often badly; that matches up perfectly to the Trojans’ offense, or revert to a middling running game despite usually avoiding that. The perk of that latter approach would be at least shortening the game.
Coaches do not generally try to shorten games unless they feel they are wildly out-talented. P.J. Fleck is too proud for that, especially when he knows he has two of the Big Ten’s best skill players in running back Darius Taylor and receiver Daniel Jackson. Furthermore, this line of -8 can convey what perception is, even in the locker rooms.
So, expect Minnesota to pass right into the teeth of USC’s offense. In doing so, the Gophers will set up an efficient Trojans’ offense adept at finishing its quality drives, of which there are many.
USC vs Minnesota same-game parlay (SGP)
USC -8.5
Minnesota team total Under 20.5
Daniel Jackson anytime touchdown
Ignore the hook BetMGM insists on adding to the spread in the same-game parlay. This game won’t actually be that close, not that a hook on -8 is ever terribly concerning.
Taking the Minnesota team total Under its standard number of 20.5 does not raise the same-game parlay payout by much, but an alternate line isn't worth the risk, given the Gophers do create quality possessions at a reasonable rate.
And given Minnesota’s insistence on passing the ball, adding a touchdown from star receiver Daniel Jackson should be profitable.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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USC vs Minnesota odds
USC vs Minnesota live odds
USC vs Minnesota opening odds
- USC vs. Minnesota spread: USC -9
- USC vs. Minnesota moneyline: USC -350, Minnesota +270
- USC vs. Minnesota Over/Under: 52.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
USC vs Minnesota spread and Over/Under analysis
- Some stale lookahead lines favored USC by -10 early on Sunday before fresh numbers hit the market, those then resetting the market at -8.
- But even with fresh numbers available, this spread jumped to -9.5 for some of Sunday and parts of Monday before stabilizing at -8 or -8.5 on Tuesday, depending on your sportsbook.
- The lookahead totals were as low as 50.5 before the market reset at 52.5, only to then quickly drop back to 51.5 on Sunday, 50.5 on Tuesday, and 49.5 on Thursday.
USC vs Minnesota betting trend to know
USC is 3-1 against the spread this season, exceeding expectations in those three wins by an average of 10.5 points. Find more college football betting trends for USC vs Minnesota.
USC vs Minnesota game info
| Location: | Huntington Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date: | Saturday, 10-5, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BTN |
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