It’s a merciful end to what’s been brutal seasons for both the Utah Utes and the UCF Knights when they square off at FBC Mortgage Stadium tonight.
Utah enters as a 9.5-point road underdog and is in real danger of ending the year on an eight-game losing slide. It’s not much better for the Knights, who have dropped seven of eight. Our Utah vs. UCF predictions won't go so far as to claim an upset, but the Utes can still cover on Friday, November 29.
This is still a matchup of one of the Big 12's best scoring defenses in Utah and a Top 5 offense in UCF. The Utes' defensive prowess informs our college football picks ahead of this 8:00 p.m. ET kickoff on FOX.
Utah vs UCF prediction and best bet
Who will win Utah vs UCF?
During its seven-game slide, Utah has lost by eight points or less five times, including a 22-21 defeat to ninth-ranked BYU and, most recently, 31-28 to the 22nd-ranked Iowa State Cyclones.
The Utes allow just 21.3 points per game, holding opponents to 125.5 yards on the ground (fourth) and 199.7 yards passing (fifth).
It will most likely come down to how Utah handles UCF’s rush attack, which ranks fourth in the nation, churning out a massive 254.9 yards per game.
A dominant 56-12 Knights win over Arizona at home is their only W in the last eight. In their other three losses, they’ve produced an average of 19.3 points per game.
As much as I think Utah can compete, I don’t think they can put up enough points to eclipse the Knights. It won’t be pretty, but UCF escapes with the win.
My best bet
Pick: Utah +9.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
Utah is coming off a loss to Iowa State, dropping the Utes to 1-7 in Big 12 play, with only the winless Oklahoma State Cowboys owning a worse conference record.
The 28 points were the Utes’ most allowed during this slide. Their offense is scoring just 23.2 points per game (14th in the Big 12) and is Bottom 5 in both rushing and passing yards.
Amazingly, the Utes have only been a betting underdog for the last three games of the season, and they are 2-1-0 against the spread in those contests.
The UCF Knights scored just 21 points in their most recent loss, their lowest scoring output in the last four games.
Still, they are fifth in the Big 12 in scoring, putting up 31.9 points per game. However, they are about as one-dimensional as it gets. The Knights’ passing game puts up fewer than 200 yards per contest and ranks 14th in the conference.
The formula is simple against UCF. Neutralize the run, and you have a chance to compete.
While its defense ranks above Utah’s in rush yards allowed at 123.5, it's winless in seven games when the opposition gains better than 70 yards. It's also outside the Top 10 in passing defense, giving up 228.5 yards per game.
Life as a betting favorite hasn’t been great for the Knights, as they are 2-5-0 ATS on the year.
While Utah’s season will end with another loss, it will land you a win if you take the points.
Utah vs UCF same-game parlay (SGP)
Utah +9.5
RJ Harvey Over 94.5 rush yards
Micah Bernard anytime touchdown
Good luck trying to stop RJ Harvey. The Knights running back is closing in on a 1,500-yard rushing year, with 21 touchdowns. He’s gone for at least 127 yards in each of his last five games and has eight with over 100 yards rushing on the season.
Utah’s rush defense is formidable, but Harvey averages just below 20 totes per game and rips off 6.9 yards per rush.
We’ll finish with Utes running back Micah Bernard, who’s closing in on a 1,000-yard season himself, just 78 yards shy of reaching that mark.
We’re targeting a TD for him on Friday. While he only has four rushing scores on the year, Bernard has found paydirt in three different road games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Utah vs UCF odds
Utah vs UCF live odds
Utah vs UCF opening odds
- Utah vs. UCF spread: UCF -9.5
- Utah vs. UCF moneyline: Utah +280, UCF -350
- Utah vs. UCF Over/Under: 49.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Utah vs UCF spread and Over/Under analysis
- UCF is 1-3-0 ATS in its last four games.
- The Knights have cashed the Over in four of their last five.
- Utah has hit the Over in three straight.
- 64% of Covers Consensus users are backing Utah on the spread, while 63% are taking the Over.
Utah vs UCF betting trend to know
Utah is 2-0-0 against the spread as an underdog of 10 points or less. Find more college football betting trends for Utah vs UCF.
How to watch Utah vs UCF game info
| Location: | FBC Mortgage Stadium, Orlando, FL |
| Date: | Friday, 11-29, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
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