The UTEP Miners could be in for a long night when they face the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers tonight.
The Miners have been awful on both sides of the ball, and due to their atrocious defense, my UTEP vs. Western Kentucky predictions are zeroing in on Kentucky running back Elijah Young when he takes the field in Bowling Green.
Find out more in my college football picks for Thursday, October 10.
UTEP vs Western Kentucky prediction and best bet
My best bet
Elijah Young Over 24.5 receiving yards (-115 at bet365)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
This UTEP Miners defense has been abysmal this season, whether against the run or the pass. The Miners rank 117th in opponent completion percentage and have an interception rate of less than 1%. And that’s with UTEP’s opponents running the ball more than 61% of their snaps.
And while UTEP’s foes haven’t thrown the ball a ton, one area where they’ve exploited the Miner defense is dumping it off to running backs. Southern Utah and Nebraska attempted just three passes to running backs combined, but UTEP’s other three opponents found success by targeting theirs.
Sam Houston State, Colorado State, and Liberty all saw their third-down backs catch at least two passes for 20+ yards despite low target rates. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers running back Elijah Young should be licking his lips.
That’s because he’s third on Western’s team in targets, catching 20 of the 24 passes thrown his way through five games. He has a 17% usage rate on passing downs, by far the highest on the team, and has been targeted 15 times on 70 routes against three non-Power Four opponents.
UTEP’s pass coverage has been giving up yards after catch like they’re going out of style, and that’s where Young should find the most success. His average depth of target is less than a yard, but he’s averaging nearly 9.0 YAC per catch and has averaged 7.5 yards on passes 1-9 yards past the line of scrimmage.
Western Kentucky ranks 25th nationally in completion rate, and Caden Veltkamp doesn’t throw downfield very often. The Hilltoppers attempt more than 36 passes per game on average, and Young is going to get his targets.
He’s got 24+ receiving yards in all three games against non-P4 schools and is averaging 40 yards in those three contests. I’m expecting a game for Young similar to his performance against Middle Tennessee State, where he caught five passes for 64 yards.
UTEP vs Western Kentucky same-game parlay (SGP)
Elijah Young Over 24.5 receiving yards
Western Kentucky alternate spread -23.5
Caden Veltkamp 2+ passing touchdowns
Western Kentucky not only will cover the spread, but it’ll win by at least 24 points. UTEP has scored just 55 points in four games against FBS opposition, and seven of those came last week via a scoop-and-score. The Miners have kept games within 20 points because opponents have run the ball, but Western will be taking to the air and will run up the score.
Only two of UTEP’s five opponents have attempted 23+ passes, and both Dylan Raiola and Hunter Watson threw a pair of touchdowns in doing so. Veltkamp has thrown at least 30 passes in each of his last three games, with eight touchdown passes in that span. He’ll get multiple TD tosses against a horrific UTEP secondary.
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UTEP vs Western Kentucky odds
UTEP vs Western Kentucky live odds
UTEP vs Western Kentucky opening odds
- UTEP vs. Western Kentucky spread: Western Kentucky -19
- UTEP vs. Western Kentucky moneyline: UTEP +700, Western Kentucky -1,100
- UTEP vs. Western Kentucky Over/Under: 56.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
UTEP vs Western Kentucky spread and Over/Under analysis
- Western Kentucky is favored by 19.5 points after the line opened anywhere between -17.5 and -20.5. UTEP has failed to cover in four of its five games, including a loss against Southern Utah in which it was favored by a touchdown. Western is 4-1 ATS, failing to cover only against Alabama.
- This UTEP team isn’t just struggling to score and stop teams from gaining yards; it’s shooting itself in the foot with turnovers and penalties. The Miners also try to play fast on offense and will find things tough against a solid Western secondary. The Hilltoppers will cause multiple turnovers and easily cover the spread.
- After opening as low as 55.5 points, the total jumped up to 58.5 before coming back down to 57.5 points. The Under is 4-1 in UTEP’s games, with three of Western’s last four games also going Under.
- I’m leaning Over. The Under has hit in UTEP’s games mostly because its opponents have run the ball the majority of the time. Western will throw it more often and will put up points at a faster rate, and the Toppers have been prone to giving up some big plays. Garbage time points for UTEP could be huge in pushing the number Over.
UTEP vs Western Kentucky betting trend to know
UTEP has hit the first-half Over in four of its last five away games (+2.85 units / 52% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for UTEP vs Western Kentucky.
UTEP vs Western Kentucky game info
| Location: | Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium, Bowling Green, KY |
| Date: | Thursday, 10-10, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPNU |
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