UTSA vs Marshall Prediction: Frisco Bowl Odds and Picks: Low on Caffeine

Tonight's bowl game odds serve us up the Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl, as the USTA Roadrunners are set to tangle with the Marshall Thundering Herd.

UTSA finished third in the AAC standings with an 8-4 mark, and college football odds have seen the Roadrunners drop to -7.5 point favorites from the opening of -12 vs. Marshall. 

Read on as I break down the bowl game odds and give my free college football picks for the Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl between UTSA and Marshall.

UTSA vs Marshall best odds

UTSA vs Marshall picks and predictions

Bowl games usually feature contests between programs that rarely, if ever, play each other. However, after competing against each other as former members of Conference USA, the Scooters Coffee Frisco Bowl offers us two universities that won’t see any surprises from the other.

We also often see entirely different teams from the one they played their seasons with, as the transfer portal and players opting out for various reasons play a huge role. For this game, the Marshall Thundering Herd were hit much harder than the UTSA Roadrunners.

UTSA has just one major hit to its roster as edge rusher Trey Moore has decided to transfer away from the Roadrunners. Outside of that, the key players from this 8-4 team are intact and led by seventh-year quarterback Frank Harris.

Harris threw for 2,506 passing yards with 18 touchdowns alongside eight interceptions in an offense that averaged 31.7 points per game. The senior signal-caller rushed for 323 yards with four touchdowns behind an offensive line that kept his jersey relatively clean. 

Marshall dropped six of their final eight games and was battered by the transfer portal. Starting quarterback Cam Fancher, wide receiver Caleb Coombs, and offensive lineman Trent Holler were the leading Thundering Herd players to transfer out. While unofficial, the rumor is that leading rusher Rasheen Ali could also opt out of this game.

Those are considerable blows to an offense that found scoring the football complicated over their final eight games, and they'll have a tough time against a solid UTSA stop unit that ranked 57th in scoring defense.

The Roadrunners scored a ton of points this season, but Harris and Co. won’t find throwing the football easy. Marshall defensive back Micah Abraham is third nationally with 16 passes defended, and the Herd can get to the quarterback (2.75 sacks per game).

All things considered, this 53-point total is too high. Marshall would need a Herculean offensive effort fully intact, but that offense struggled mightily during their final eight games with Fancher under center.

Backup Cole Pennington is likely a step-down and meets a pedestrian Roadrunner passing defense he likely won’t be able to exploit. Losing Coombs weakens them, and if Ali skips this matchup, Marshall will be in real trouble.  

Finally, UTSA will score but I don’t see them hanging a significant number on the Herd. Marshall is a good defense hampered by bad field position, as evidenced by their 63rd-ranked yards allowed per game.

Harris and his offense won’t be throwing against Abraham easily, and the Herd defense held opponents to a 16th-best 31% third-down conversion rate. That defense is still intact and can slow down the Roadrunners, keeping this Under the total in the process.

My best bet: Under 53 (-110 at DraftKings)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

UTSA vs Marshall same-game parlay

Under 53

UTSA -11.5

+270 at DraftKings

The Under 53 at DraftKings is my favorite bet for this game. UTSA had an O/U record of 4-7-1 while the total ended Under in six of Marshall’s dozen tilts this season.

The portal hurt the Herd worse than the Roadrunners, but Marshall has a good defense. I expect the Herd to hold the Roadrunners in check on Tuesday.

That’s a big number for a Bowl Game, but I believe UTSA can and should cover the -11.5. UTSA is 5-2-1 ATS over their last eight matchups, and Harris will look to end his seven-year career with a bang. He has the offensive weapons to do so.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

UTSA vs Marshall spread and Over/Under analysis

DraftKings opened Marshall as an 8.5-point underdog, but with the transfers and uncertainty surrounding Ali, that number has ballooned to +11.5 with several books hanging Marshall +12 on their board.

That’s a big number, but how can we trust a Herd offense that was inconsistent with their best players suiting up and now has a backup quarterback with 437 passing yards, zero scoring strikes, and six interceptions under center? As bad as that sounds, it could be much worse if Ali opts out.

That’s why I chose the Under as my best bet. We may not know Ali's status until game time. If he plays, the spread will move to -9 or so, and if he doesn’t suit up, the number on the spread could reach -13 or more.

The Under opened at 56 and dipped sharply to 53, but 53 is still a good number for this matchup. The Herd has a quarterback with a 0-6 TD/INT ratio, is missing his second-best wideout, and could miss his best ground gainer against a very good Roadrunners defense. 

Marshall has a decent defense of its own and is relatively intact. Harris has had 400+ passing outings and four sub-200-yard passing games. The seventh-year senior has three multiple-interception games, including two picks in their final regular season matchup against Tulane.

Marshall has a good passing defense with 48 passes defended, 11 picks, and two pick-sixes. The Herd will get enough stops but won't be able to turn those into points, keeping this Under the total.

UTSA vs Marshall betting trend to know

The Under is 6-1 in Thundering Herd's last seven games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. Find more college football betting trends for UTSA vs Marshall.

UTSA vs Marshall game info

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