Mario Cristobal and the Miami Hurricanes enter this week’s ACC clash with Virginia Tech at 3-0, and they have a Heisman candidate in quarterback Cam Ward.
So, that begs the question — is The U back? My Virginia Tech vs. Miami predictions feel the defense certainly is.
The Canes look to keep rolling as big three-score favorites in a game that was expected to be much closer before the season.
My college football picks highlight some big edges for The U in Week 5's Friday night showdown.
Virginia Tech vs Miami prediction
My best bet
First Half Under 28.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
It’s not often you get to give Mario Cristobal an in-game coaching edge, but with the sorry state of the Virginia Tech Hokies’ coaching staff, here we are.
Brent Pry’s team was being touted by many (me included) as a dark horse ACC contender heading into the season. The Hokies were feeling really good about themselves. They had a dynamic quarterback in Kyron Drones, who helped them close last season with six wins in their final nine games.
But this looks like a completely different team through four games this season. The Hokies enter this game with a 2-2 straight-up record, going 1-3 against the spread. The outright losses both came as favorites, starting with a season-opening overtime loss to Vanderbilt, and more recently, losing 26-23 as 3-point home chalk vs. Rutgers. The wins were against Marshall and Old Dominion.
The Virginia Tech coaching staff has looked overmatched in both losses. The game plans seem to be holding back Drones, who is completing just 59.8% of his passes for 765 yards with four touchdowns and three interceptions over four games.
As a result, the Hokies rank 97th in offensive success rate and 114th in offensive success rate on dropbacks.
That poor game-planning has also meant some very slow starts. Virginia Tech is averaging just 8.5 first-half points per game, which ranks 100th in the country. That doesn't bode well against a Miami Hurricanes defense that's looked very strong.
Miami ranks 10th in the nation in opponent yards per play vs. FBS opponents and seventh in defensive success rate. This looks like another slow start for the Hokies.
Even though Canes QB Cam Ward has been hucking the ball all over the field so far this season, they also have a stable of stud running backs, and running the football has been the best way to attack this Hokies defense.
Virginia Tech ranks 93rd in EPA/rush and 73rd in defensive success rate against the rush.
I’m betting Miami runs the ball a little more than usual early on, and with Virginia Tech unlikely to do much scoring at all, I like the first-half Under here.
Virginia Tech vs Miami same-game parlay (SGP)
Virginia Tech team total Under 17.5
Xavier Restrepo 90+ receiving yards
Xavier Restrepo anytime TD
First-half totals are unavailable for this same-game parlay, but I will happily take Virginia Tech to stay below its team total of 17.5 instead. (In fact, I would go out and make a single-game wager on that as well if it’s available to you).
Virginia Tech is only scoring 29.5 points per game this season (and 25 points per game vs. Power Four opponents), and the best defense they've faced is Rutgers, which ranks 58th in opponent yards per play and 39th in defensive success rate.
Miami’s defense, as noted above, is much, much better and hasn’t let an opponent eclipse 17 points yet this season. I’m pretty sure the Hokies won’t be the ones to end that run.
Now, while I do think Miami will run the ball a little more, the fact it deploys so many running backs makes it hard to back one when it comes to props.
Plus, that doesn’t mean the 'Canes won’t pass it at all, and Cam Ward’s favorite target so far has been Xavier Restrepo. The senior wideout has 20 receptions for 362 yards and five touchdowns. He’s hit at least 99 yards in three of Miami’s four games, so adding 90+ yards and a score for Restrepo looks like a solid addition to this SGP.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Virginia Tech vs Miami odds
Virginia Tech vs Miami live odds
Virginia Tech vs Miami opening odds
- Virginia Tech vs. Miami spread: Miami -17
- Virginia Tech vs. Miami moneyline: Virginia Tech +575, Miami -850
- Virginia Tech vs. Miami Over/Under: 56.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Virginia Tech vs Miami spread and Over/Under analysis
- Miami opened this ACC matchup as a 17-point favorite, but bettors have quickly jumped on the home team here. The Hurricanes are now favored by 19.5-20 points, depending on the sportsbook.
- In the past, Miami has been tough to trust as big favorites with Mario Cristobal as head coach, but with the way Virginia Tech has looked, he may actually have the coaching edge for once. Oh, and the huge talent gap doesn't hurt either.
- The total hit the board at 56.5 and early bettors have hit the Under, moving the number down to 54.5 as of Wednesday afternoon.
- Part of this must be because it looks like Virginia Tech looks like it could have trouble scoring at all. But this line move is another reason I prefer the first-half Under. At 28.5, it is still reflective of the opening full-game total.
Virginia Tech vs Miami betting trend to know
Miami has hit the 1H Under in four of their last seven home games (+1.75 Units, 22% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Virginia Tech vs Miami.
Virginia Tech vs Miami game info
| Location: | Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL |
| Date: | Friday, 9-27, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
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