The Illinois Fighting Illini have benefited from opponents’ mistakes to reach a 4-0 mark. Both Kansas and Nebraska gift-wrapped victories for the Illini. The Penn State Nittany Lions will not be so generous, and that will be most obvious early.
My Illinois vs. Penn State predictions will focus on a quick lead coming for the Nittany Lions, with these college football picks betting on the first-half spread on Saturday, September 28.
Illinois vs Penn State prediction
My best bet
Penn State 1H -9.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
James Franklin is on his sixth offensive coordinator in Happy Valley. Of the previous five, Franklin got out of the way only once, when Joe Moorhead enjoyed rather free rein.
Former Kansas playcaller Andy Kotelnicki is getting Moorhead-esque space to operate for the Penn State Nittany Lions, and the results have been decisive. The Nits are averaging 41.3 points per game and enjoy the No. 15 offense in current SP+ ratings. But Kotelnicki’s best work comes early.
Sixty-eight of Penn State’s 124 points have come before halftime, most notably scoring 20 of its 34 points in the rout at West Virginia to open the season. On 17 first-half possessions, Drew Allar & Co. have scored nine touchdowns and kicked two field goals, the failures coming via two turnovers and four punts.
Perhaps most impressively, Penn State has scored in the final minute of each half, including a three-play, 73-yard touchdown drive to reach the end zone with six seconds left before the break against the Mountaineers.
No, none of those defenses — West Virginia, Bowling Green and Kent State — are as good as that of the Illinois Fighting Illini, but the Nittany Lions can have justifiable faith in Kotelnicki’s game script and Allar’s early execution of it. Adding in a possible last-second score only emboldens this first-half faith.
The question would then be if the Illini can keep up. Much of Illinois’s success this season can be tied to opponent mistakes, particularly Jalon Daniels throwing three interceptions in early September. Remove those and the Illini’s turnover margin falls to plus-four, a margin entirely contained in a rout of FCS-level Eastern Illinois.
Allar has thrown just one interception this season, and even in his younger seasons, he was always careful with the ball. Over his career, Allar has thrown one interception for every 349 attempts.
Without those gifts, Illinois will have a tough time slowing Penn State. Trusting Kotelnicki to continue putting up points in the first half removes any worries of a backdoor cover from the Illini, certainly a possibility with a three-score spread in a conference game.
Illinois vs Penn State same-game parlay (SGP)
Penn State -17.5
Illinois team total Under 14.5
Kaytron Allen anytime TD
First-half bets are ineligible for same-game parlays, forcing the SGP to worry about a backdoor cover, but some faith in Penn State’s defensive line should lessen that worry. The Nittany Lions have bothered opposing passers on more than 50% of snaps.
Some of that, obviously, is tied to the inferior opposing offensive lines, but a pressure rate that high exceeds any talent edge. Penn State has a strong front, and once the Nittany Lions’ offense has built a modest lead, the defensive line will be able to dial into its pass rush against the Illini. Knowing Illinois is going to need to pass will further help the defense and should compromise any Illini comeback hopes.
BetMGM also is not offering Nicholas Singleton in the anytime touchdown market as of Thursday evening, which is strange given he has four touchdowns this season. But his running mate, Kaytron Allen, can not be dismissed entirely in these considerations.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Illinois vs Penn State odds
Illinois vs Penn State live odds
Illinois vs Penn State opening odds
- Illinois vs. Penn State spread: Penn State -17.5
- Illinois vs. Penn State moneyline: Illinois +750, Penn State -1,200
- Illinois vs. Penn State Over/Under: 47.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Illinois vs Penn State spread and Over/Under analysis
- Penn State opened as only a 16-point favorite in Sunday’s earliest lines and was nearly immediately bet up to -17.5, where this line stuck until some books waffled to -18 in the midweek.
- The first total to hit the market was a low number of 45.5, quickly jumping to 47.5 and then not moving all week.
- While 48 is a key number, there may be a valid thought to finding an Under ticket on this game mostly because Illinois already struggles to convert quality possessions into points (3.11 points per quality drive, No. 82 in the country), something which Penn State’s defense also excels at (2.39 points allowed per quality drive, No. 25 in the country, per cfb-graphs via collegefootballinsiders.com).
Illinois vs Penn State betting trend to know
James Franklin has long been known to score late in games to cover a spread no matter how hefty the line may be. That was emphasized last week when the Nittany Lions scored with only 1:25 left to cover as a 49-point favorite in a 56-0 victory. Find more college football betting trends for Illinois vs Penn State.
Illinois vs Penn State game info
| Location: | Beaver Stadium, University Park, PA |
| Date: | Saturday, 9-28-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBC |
Illinois vs Penn State latest injuries
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