Army vs Temple NCAAF Picks, Predictions, and Best Bets: Black Knights' Triple Option Has Owls Screeching

All eyes will be on Lincoln Financial Field as Temple hosts Army in the lone college football game on Thursday night. 

My Army vs. Temple predictions don't venture too far off the beaten path as we back the Black Knights' and their diabolical triple-option to keep the Owls wondering who the heck has the football now.

Find out more in my college football picks for Thursday, September 26. 

Army vs Temple prediction

My best bet
Army -13.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

My analysis
Temple shocked us all last week by upsetting Utah State. It did so rather easily once it came back from an early 14-0 deficit, winning 45-29 in large part thanks to 24 straight points. Three explosive passes supercharged a previously miserable Owls offense, with 17 more points coming off short fields.

This is not to take away that win. Temple beat Utah State. Temple should have won. But when realizing that the Owls had 38 points come from moments that are not likely to be repeated, certainly not often, then it is a pretty quick step to continuing to doubt Temple as has always been the plan in 2024.

Consider those explosive plays. The Army Black Knights’ defense sees an influx of passes, thanks to a strong rush defense, and despite last week’s success, the Owls throw 5.9% less often than the average team does in a given game state. So either Temple is going to need to run into Army’s strength or abandon what it prefers. Neither is an ideal for the Owls, obviously.

Offensively, Army’s relentless option has uncorked an explosive passing game this year that has undoubtedly cost Temple some sleep this week. A quick note here: Preparing for the triple-option on a short week is one of the greatest scheduling disservices possible in college football.

Obviously, the Knights run often, 33.7% more than the average team does. The Owls struggle against the rush, ranking No. 130 in expected points added (EPA) per rush against at 0.199. Put that in simpler terms: When a team rushes against Temple, it adds an average of a fifth of a point to its likely final tally.

Army averages 57 rush attempts per game. It will add plenty of points to its final tally against a defense giving up 5.73 yards per carry. The Knights should get out to an early lead and then keep running the ball through the Owls. Army would kill the clock if it could, but Temple’s defense will be too much of a turnstile for that short of a rout.

Army vs Temple same-game parlay (SGP)

Army -12.5

Temple team total Under 14.5

Casey Reynolds anytime touchdown

+340 at BetMGM

Utah State’s special teams gifted Temple three short fields last week, something Army certainly will not do.

Through three games, Army is averaging seven possessions. The Knights are shortening games in their prototypical manner, which will obviously cut into the Owls’ scoring chances. Even after last week’s success, if Temple took seven possessions and turned two of them into quality drives as has been its season average (25.5%), it would need to score touchdowns on them both to get near this alternate team total.

On the other side of the ball, Army receiver Casey Reynolds has turned four catches into two touchdowns, one in each game against an FBS opponent. The Knights’ offense has always been deceptively explosive, waiting for opponents to commit to stopping the run and then burning them deep. Army has elevated that tendency this season. It has an edge in explosive plays this year, one that turns this offense from a frustrating gimmick into an outright threat.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Army vs Temple odds

Army vs Temple live odds

Army vs Temple opening odds

• Army vs. Template spread: Temple +13.5
• Army vs. Temple moneyline: Army -550, Temple +400
• Army vs. Temple over/under: 45.0

Odds courtesy of BetMGM

Army vs Temple spread and Over/Under analysis

• Sunday’s first lines set Army as a 10-point favorite, a number that quickly climbed to -13 and reached -13.5 across the board by Monday morning.
• Two touchdowns may be a hefty spread to expect a service academy to cover, but Army has gone 4-2 against the spread in its last six moments as a two-touchdown favorite.
• The biggest move in this total came at the first moment it hit the board, dropping to 45.0 from 45.5 at some sportsbooks.

Army vs Temple betting trend to know

Army is 3-0 against the spread this season, exceeding expectations by an average of 12.2 points. Find more college football betting trends for Army vs Temple.

Army vs Temple game info

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