49ers vs Commanders Odds, Picks, and Predictions Week 17: Out of the Backfield

Coming off a humbling loss on Monday, the San Francisco 49ers will look to wrap up the No.1 spot in the NFC as a practicing Brock Purdy and the Niners cross the country to take on the Washington Commanders who have dropped six straight, are decimated in the secondary, and might have to go back to Sam Howell under center.  

It’s not easy finding value in Christian McCaffrey’s props, but with Elijah Mitchell likely back and a concentrated effort to get CMC more involved in the passing game, is a five-catch game on the horizon for the MVP hopeful despite being a heavy favorite? 

I break down the Week 17 NFL odds and offer my free NFL picks for 49ers at Commanders on December 31. 

49ers vs Commanders odds

49ers vs Commanders predictions

Since the bye, Christian McCaffrey has seen his work in the passing game increase going for at least five catches in five of seven games and a consistent volume of 25-plus routes per game. He owns a 19% target share on the year and with a banged-up QB and being favored by two TDs, a conservative passing game could keep him busy making his 5-plus receptions at +130 my best bet vs. the Washington Commanders.

Playing a running back at this high of a number as a 14-point favorite might be worrisome but CMC and this offense have proven in the past that the running back is game-script-proof. 

The running back posted six catches as a 12-point favorite vs. Arizona two weeks ago, had five grabs as a TD favorite vs. Seattle, and posted another five catches as a 12.5-point favorite vs. Tampa in Week 11. He also tied a season-high last week with 10 targets.

Elijah Mitchell has returned to practice which will cut into CMC’s snaps but not in the passing game as Mitchell has no role there. In fact, in the last three games that Mitchell started and finished, McCaffrey posted three straight games of at least 5-plus catches and posted some of his best route percentages outside of last week. 

The Commanders are gutted in the secondary and might cede more passes underneath as they look to protect vs. the deep ball.

His o3.5 receptions have been taking lots of Over money but I have this one closer to a coin flip at +130 odds. 

My best bet: Christian McCaffrey 5+ receptions (+130 at bet365)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

49ers vs Commanders same-game parlay

Christian McCaffrey 5+ receptions

Christian McCaffrey first-half TD

Brock Purdy Over 1.5 passing TDs

+475 at bet365

Another busy game featuring the best running back in football. The lack of a secondary will aid McCaffrey's 1H play as scoring in the first 30 minutes has been more than a common occurrence for the TD leader who can add to Purdy's TD totals as he already has seven receiving TDs on the season. Expect the 49ers to put together a classic Shannahan drive to start this game that could add to these totals.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

49ers vs Commanders spread and Over/Under analysis

The 49ers were -13.5 on the look-ahead and reopened at the same number. It moved as low as -13 but with Jacoby Brissett injuring his hamstring at practice on Friday and looking very questionable, bettors are starting to bet against a possible Sam Howell start which could move this line to 14 and possibly 14.5.

Commanders’ QB Jacoby Brissett is being added to the injury report due to hamstring tightness and will be listed as questionable for Sunday’s game vs. the 49ers. If he can’t start, Sam Howell would. pic.twitter.com/KYxphyVKji

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) December 29, 2023

Howell was atrocious last week and has been benched in consecutive games. He finished last week vs. the Jets with an unheard-of 1.7 passer rating. It’s a downgrade for the entire Washington offense that was looking much better with Brissett under center. 

Howell won’t help a defense that is currently giving up the most points per game (30.2) and the most yards (384.3). It will miss three starters in the secondary and that is on top of the two other safeties it has on the IR. This is the worst situation of any secondary in football currently.  

San Francisco gets a defense it will have no issue moving the ball against and an opposing offense that can’t get first downs with Howell. Add in the rebound after a humiliating loss where they gave up four sacks and five picks, it should be another one-sided affair for Brock Purdy who I’d be happy at -13.5.

Purdy exited Monday night with a should-stinger but returned to practice this week. Another important name is tackle Trent Williams who practiced on consecutive days this week giving some optimism for his availability after missing snaps on Monday. 

The total is also seeing some movement with the Brissett news. This total was bet up to 49.5 from 48.5 but could see some Under money once Howell is announced.    

49ers vs Commanders betting trend to know

The San Francisco 49ers have hit the Team Total Over in 7 of their last 11 away games (+2.55 Units / 19% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for 49ers vs. Commanders.

49ers vs Commanders game info

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