An NFC West war between the San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks gets the Week 6 odds underway.
This Thursday Night Football showcase currently has an Over/Under total just shy of 50 points. And with ample offensive weapons on the field for both teams, that means plenty of pop in the anytime touchdown markets.
I dig into those odds and highlight some players in my NFL picks below.
49ers anytime touchdown pick
George Kittle anytime touchdown
+175 at FanDuel
Depending on where you bet, George Kittle is priced as short as +140 to score his fourth touchdown of the season. If you shop around, however, you get San Francisco’s star tight end at +175 to find the end zone tonight.
Despite his output and leading the San Francisco 49ers in red-zone targets, Kittle is sitting behind Jordan Mason, Deebo Samuel, and Brandon Aiyuk in the anytime touchdown odds. If you read my 49ers vs. Seahawks predictions, you’ll see I’m expecting a busy night for Kittle.
He faces a Seattle Seahawks defense protecting against the deeper pass and playing plenty of high safety schemes. That’s left Seattle soft underneath, which has allowed rival TEs to go to work in the intermediate passing game.
The Seahawks defense is very banged up heading into Thursday night, with bodies questionable at linebacker as well as safety — two positions assigned to tight ends in coverage.
Player projections list Kittle as the one tight end most likely to score a touchdown in Week 6, with models sitting at 0.4 to 0.5 TDs tonight. That probability roughly pans out to +144, which is where most books have Kittle prices, but you can get extra bang for your buck at +175 over at FanDuel.
Seahawks anytime touchdown pick
Jaxon Smith-Njigba anytime touchdown
+200 at FanDuel
Jaxon Smith-Njigba is quickly becoming Geno Smith’s favorite option, sitting just two targets behind D.K. Metcalf for the team lead.
That’s especially true inside the red zone, where Smith-Njigba tops the Seahawks in RZ targets with five, including his first touchdown catch of 2024 coming in last week’s loss to the Giants.
He’s Seattle’s top-rated wide receiver in short and intermediate routes at PFF, lining up almost exclusively in the slot. San Francisco is the 11th-worst defense against slot receivers and this secondary is potentially missing a lot of pieces on the short week.
Safety Talanoa Hufanga hit IR this week, and corner Charvarius Ward is questionable (knee) for Week 6. What’s more, the other starting corner, Isaac Yiadom, is playing through a thigh injury. With the 49ers throwing whatever they have left at Metcalf, JSN will see favorable matchups on most snaps.
Week 6 player projections call for between 0.29 and 0.38 touchdowns from Smith-Njigba, which should have his touchdown odds between +245 and +163. The current market has him listed from +190 to +210.
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