The San Francisco 49ers face off against the Seattle Seahawks in Thursday Night Football action this week.
These teams have shown cracks on defense in recent weeks, which has me betting on several Overs in the NFL player props markets. Here are my three best NFL picks for this primetime showdown on October 10.
49ers vs Seahawks TNF props
- Purdy Over 253.5 passing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
- Mason Over 83.5 rushing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
- Walker Over 56.5 rushing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Read full analysis of each pick.
49ers vs Seahawks TNF props
Prop bet #1: Brock Purdy Over 253.5 passing yards
Plenty of people were praising the Seattle Seahawks defense after Week 3, while detractors pointed out that they had faced a trio of terrible quarterbacks. Those detractors were proven correct when the Seahawks finally faced a competent quarterback in Week 4, giving up 42 points. Last week, they took on a struggling Giants offense missing its top receiver and still surrendered 29 points.
Although San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy struggled last week against Arizona, he still finished with 244 passing yards. It's worth mentioning that he had a completion percentage of just 54.3% in that contest, but his adjusted comp % was 64.5%.
Prior to that contest against the Cardinals, Purdy had eclipsed 280+ passing yards in three straight games. He should be able to pick apart a Seahawks defense whose top two edge rushers and two best defensive backs are questionable with injuries on a short week.
Prop bet #2: Jordan Mason Over 83.5 rushing yards
The Seahawks stop unit has has been shredded by teams that like to run the ball. They gave up 185 yards on 36 carries against a one-dimensional Patriots offense in Week 2, allowed 116 rushing yards to Detroit in Week 4, and were gashed for 175 yards on 34 carries versus the Giants last week.
That's bad news against a Kyle Shanahan-led offense that loves to utilize its running backs and get them into space. All-Pro RB Christian McCaffrey may be sidelined with an Achilles tendon issue, but Jordan Mason has done a great job filling in.
Mason ranks second in the league with 536 rushing yards on 105 carries, including finishing with 89 yards on a season-low 14 attempts in Week 5. With Seattle surrendering 128 rushing yards per game on 4.5 yards per carry, take the Over 83.5 on Mason's rushing prop.
Prop bet #3: Kenneth Walker III Over 56.5 rushing yards
San Francisco's stop unit has also struggled against the run., ranking 20th in the league in defensive rush EPA and 26th in defensive rush success rate.
They are also dealing with a slew of injuries, with defensive tackle Javon Hargrave and linebacker Dre Greenlaw sidelined and their replacements Jordan Elliott and Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles also banged up. Meanwhile, hard-hitting safety Talanoa Hufanaga has been ruled out, while Pro Bowl LB Fred Warner is listed as questionable.
That should make things relatively easy for Kenneth Walker III, who the Seahawks have to get more involved after he had just five carries for 19 yards last week. Seattle handed off the ball just seven times to their running backs, which was bizarre given the neutral game script in that contest.
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