The last four meetings between the Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers have gone Over the total. And with the Over/Under for Thursday Night Football’s faceoff between these NFC West rivals flirting with 50 points, the Week 15 odds predict plenty of scoring.
That sounds good to fans of the “Touchdown Anytime” props.
Sportsbooks currently have eight players shorter than 2/1 in the TD anytime odds, as Los Angeles and San Francisco have a surplus of playmakers taking the field at Levi’s Stadium tonight.
Here are my best Rams vs. 49ers anytime touchdown picks and predictions for this all-California clash on December 12.
Rams anytime touchdown pick
Puka Nacua anytime touchdown
+125 at FanDuel
Most sportsbooks have Puka Nacua priced shorter than fellow Los Angeles Rams WR Cooper Kupp in the NFL odds, but FanDuel has this NFL player props market flipped. Kupp is +110 while Nacua, who has scored a TD in back-to-back games, is paying +125.
Nacua doesn’t see the same snap count as Kupp but is the most popular option inside the red zone since returning from injury. He’s drawn nine RZ targets to Kupp’s seven and caught seven of those balls — three for touchdowns inside the 20-yard line — since Week 8.
My NFL picks believe the matchup also favors Nacua on Thursday night. The San Francisco 49ers are among the better defenses at shutting down slot receivers, which is the role Kupp plays a high percentage of in the L.A. offense. Nacua, on the other hand, moves around but does see more snaps out wide.
He missed the first matchup with the Niners in Week 3 due to injury but torched the 49ers for nice numbers in two meetings in his rookie season last year. Nacua finished with 19 catches on 26 targets for a total of 188 yards and a touchdown — the bulk of that yardage coming in Week 17.
Week 15 player projections list Nacua with the third highest touchdown forecast among wide receivers, with models calling for between 0.4 and 0.6 touchdowns against San Francisco.
Based on my projection (0.47), Nacau should be priced around +113. You can get the most bang for your Puka prop at +125 at FanDuel.
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49ers anytime touchdown pick
George Kittle anytime touchdown
+155 at FanDuel
Again, shopping around is vital to these “touchdown anytime” props. George Kittle is priced as low as +125 to score against the Rams tonight. FanDuel is giving us an extra 30 cents on this prop, at +155.
I mean, c’mon. We’re talking about Kittle in primetime.
Not only does Kittle shine in the big-game spotlight, but he’s the top-rated tight end versus zone coverage at PFF with the top-rated QB versus zone coverage throwing him the ball. Los Angles runs one of the highest rates of zone schemes on defense (fourth-most).
Kittle missed the first game against L.A. back in Week 3 due to injury but has taken a bigger role in the receiving corps since WR Brandon Aiyuk went down, including sitting second in red zone targets for the Niners. While Kittle has failed to find paydirt the past two games, he has eight touchdowns on the season and is the most likely TE to score in Week 15, according to player projections.
Models range between 0.4 and 0.5, with my forecast at 0.49 which should price Kittle around +104. But the market is higher, and no book is offering better value than FanDuel at +155.
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