Once again down Christian McCaffrey, the San Francisco 49ers will look to spoil the head coaching debut of Chicago Bears interim Thomas Brown.
With McCaffrey down and Brown calling the shots in the Windy City, my Bears vs. 49ers player predictions and NFL picks for Sunday, December 8, expect a pair of rookies to be leaned on by their respective teams.
Bears vs 49ers props
- Caleb Williams Over 252.5 passing and rushing yards (-115 at BetMGM)
- Isaac Guerendo Over 71.5 rushing yards (-115 at BetMGM)
- Deebo Samuel Under 43.5 receiving yards (-115 at BetMGM)
Read full analysis of each pick.
Bears vs 49ers props
Prop bet #1: Caleb Williams Over 252.5 passing and rushing yards
Has Caleb Williams hit the ground running in his rookie campaign as the vast majority of draftniks expected? Absolutely not. But he has had bright moments, especially in recent weeks with Thomas Brown taking over as interim offensive coordinator following the firing of Shane Waldron.
Now Brown steps into an even larger role with Matt Eberflus fired, and I think he’ll continue to allow his No. 1 pick at QB to let loose and make plays. Williams has topped 252.5 combined passing and rushing yards in three straight games.
Those three games were against the divisional rival Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, and Detroit Lions. The Chicago Bears lost each by just one score, and Brown was the offensive coordinator for all three.
In those three games, Williams averaged 275.6 passing yards 47.3 rushing yards, and accounted for five touchdowns with zero interceptions. He was also credited with eight big-time throws in those three games, as many as he had in the first nine games of the season, per PFF.
On the season, Williams is just 28th in EPA per play among QBs, but since Brown took over in Week 11, he’s jumped up to 11th. That puts him ahead of QBs like Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, and Jalen Hurts in that timeframe.
Clearly, he’s broken through the rookie wall, thanks in part to Brown running the offense. And while the San Francisco 49ers have historically had a top defense during Kyle Shanahan’s tenure, this year’s unit is just 17th in EPA per play and 16th in EPA per dropback.
Williams is poised for another performance that justifies those NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year future bets from the summer.
Prop bet #2: Isaac Guerendo Over 71.5 rushing yards
When the 49ers used a top 130 pick on Isaac Guerendo, there was a mixed reaction. On one hand, why would a team with the best running back in the NFL in McCaffrey and a capable backup in Jordan Mason draft a soon-to-be 24-year-old running back who had never topped 1,000 yards in a season in college?
On the other hand, Guerendo is a freak of nature with 4.33 speed at 221 pounds and the perfect mix of lateral explosion and contact balance to thrive in Shanahan’s system. Well, we’re about to find out just how good he can be when San Francisco needs him most.
While it’s been a quiet rookie season for the fourth-round pick out of Louisville, he’s proven what he’s capable of when given opportunities this season. In the two games in which he had double-digit carries - Week 6 against the Seattle Seahawks and Week 8 against the Dallas Cowboys - he topped 71.5 rushing yards in both.
In those two games, he averaged 12 carries for 92 yards. His burst and physicality were on display in both outings, with four runs of 10-plus yards and 85 yards coming after contact.
Against this Bears defense, with a larger workload, Guerendo should be able to rip off enough chunk runs to this the Over on this prop. Chicago has struggled to stop the run at times this season, sitting 22nd in EPA per rush on defense and allowing the eighth-most rushing yards per game (135.1).
Prop bet #3: Deebo Samuel Under 43.5 receiving yards
It has not been the season 49ers fans were expecting, proving the Super Bowl hangover hits harder than a night out with your high school friends when you all return home for Thanksgiving weekend.
Not only has Christian McCaffrey been absent for most of the year, but both Brock Purdy and Deebo Samuel have been banged up. They’ve also struggled to get on the same page when both are on the field this season.
Samuel has been borderline nonexistent in recent weeks, with a combined 63 receiving yards on nine receptions in his last three games. He hasn’t even sniffed 30 receiving yards in a game during that span, and taking on the Bears won’t make it any easier.
Chicago’s pass defense is one of the most underrated in the league. It’s seventh in EPA per dropback and giving up the 11th-fewest passing yards per game (209.4).
More importantly, top cornerback Jaylon Johnson is having himself another Pro Bowl season. He’s allowing just a 57.9% completion rate when targeted and has given up only 311 yards on the season - that’s 25.9 yards per game.
Meanwhile, Samuel ranks just 41st in yards per route run this season (1.81) and 87th in QB rating when targeted (88.9). He and Purdy just clearly aren’t on the same page, and it’s a tough ask for them to bounce back against Johnson and Co.
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