The 8-5 Cleveland Browns look to keep rolling as they host the Chicago Bears in NFL action on Sunday. The Bears are at the bottom of the NFC North with a 5-8 record but have turned things around lately with Justin Fields trying to prove that he can be their franchise quarterback.
NFL odds have the Browns installed as a soft 3-point favorite with the Over/Under at 38.5 for this Week 15 clash. Here are my best free NFL picks and predictions for Bears vs. Browns on Sunday, December 17.
Bears vs Browns odds
Bears vs Browns predictions
The Chicago Bears are coming a 28-13 win against the Detroit Lions which improved their record to 3-2 straight up and 4-0-1 against the spread in their last five games. The Cleveland Browns are fresh off a 31-27 win against the Jaguars where QB Joe Flacco showed he still has plenty left in the tank by tossing for 311 yards and three scores.
The Browns have been carried by their defense this season because their offense has been decimated by injuries. All Pro running back Nick Chubb, both starting offensive tackles, and QB Deshaun Watson have all suffered season-ending injuries, leading to some ugly contests where they started P.J. Walker and Dorian Thompson-Robinson under center.
Fortunately for them, Flacco was just sitting on his couch. After being signed on Nov. 20, he made his first start against the Rams in Week 13, completing 23 of 44 passes for 254 yards and two scores. He looked even sharper in his second start, but the truth is that at this stage of his career he's more of game manager than anything else.
This bet really comes down to how good Cleveland's stop unit can be. While they lead the league in defensive EPA and success rate, much of that has to do with how dominant they were earlier in the year. They've been less impressive over the last several weeks, surrendering at least 29 points in four of their last five games.
On the other hand, Chicago's defense has really stepped up after an ugly start to the season. Since Week 5, the Bears are sixth in the league in defensive EPA while ranking second in defensive rush EPA. Chicago's offense has also been making strides with Justin Fields playing well and D.J. Moore giving him a downfield threat.
There's also a possibility of rain and wind affecting this contest, which makes me like the Bears even more since they've been better at both running the ball and stopping the run over the last two months. I'll take the red-hot Bears with the points here.
My best bet: Bears +3 (-110 at DraftKings)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
Bears vs Browns same-game parlay
Bears +3
Under 38
Elijah Moore Over 40.5 receiving yards
The Bears have been terrific against the run this season which makes me confident that they'll be able to slow down a Cleveland offense that typically leans on its ground game. Likewise, Cleveland has the No. 1-rated defense in the league and tends to play better at home.
In addition, both of these offenses are in the Bottom 10 of the league in EPA, with the Bears ranked 22nd and the Browns 28th. Granted, both of those rankings are a bit deflated from games with Tyson Bagent, Walker, and Thompson-Robinson at QB, but this is still a pair of teams that are better defensively than offensively. That's without even getting into the disaster that is Cleveland's offensive line with both starting tackles on the IL (and backup Dawand Jones) and a pair interior linemen listed as questionable. Expect a lower-scoring game here.
While I'm not expecting many points, I can expect a solid performance from Browns receiver Elijah Moore. Moore has at least 44 receiving yards in each of his last five games and he's been targeted 18 times in two contests with Flacco at QB. With the Bears doing a good job of shutting down the run, expect the Browns to try to go after them through the air with Flacco and Moore.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Best NFL bonuses
All Users
Bet $20 in NFL same-game parlays
Get $10 in bonus bets! Claim Now
All Users
50% boost for 3+ leg parlay/SGP
e.g. +400 BOOSTS to +520! Claim Now
All Users
50% boost 4+ leg parlay/SGP
e.g. +300 BOOSTS to +450! Claim Now
Eligible USA locations only. Also, see our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2023.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Bears vs Browns spread and Over/Under analysis
This line has bounced around the key number of 3. When books have dropped the line to Browns -2.5, money immediately came in on them. But the line didn't stick around at -3.5 either, with the public immediately coming in on the Bears. As of Friday morning, most books have the spread at Browns -3 with some pricing the home side at -115 or -120.
The O/U has also bounced around, opening at 38 and dipping down to 37 before moving back to 38 or 38.5.
Bears vs Browns betting trend to know
The Under is 5-1 in Chicago's last six games. Find more NFL betting trends for Bears vs. Browns.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
Bears vs Browns game info
| Location: | Cleveland Browns Stadium, Cleveland, OH |
| Date: | Sunday, December 17, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
| Opening odds: | Browns -3, O/U 38 |
Bears vs Browns latest injuries
Bears vs Browns weather
Monitor gametime conditions with our live NFL weather info and learn how weather impacts NFL betting.
🕒Vermont: Sports betting is coming!🕒
Vermont sports betting will launch on January 11 — but you can pre-register now with FanDuel and DraftKings!
Check out the best Vermont sports betting apps (as more brands launch in the Green Mountain State), as well as the best Vermont sportsbook promos!
21+ and present in VT. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Stay updated with the latest picks, odds, and news! Tap the 
to add us to your favorites on Google News to never miss a story.
