We're finally back to a full NFL slate, as the Week 11 odds board features all 32 teams in action.
That gives us plenty of options for NFL picks this week — we kicked things off with a TNF winner and we're looking to keep that momentum going by betting on a mix of star players, surging backups, and a breakout star making a big splash in their return to the field.
Let's dive into the NFL odds — along with a player market I'm still waiting to get released — with my favorite NFL player props for Week 11.
Latest NFL prop picks
Rico Dowdle Over 25.5 rushing yards (-114 at BetRivers)
De'Von Achane anytime touchdown (+130 at Caesars)
Tank Dell longest reception Over 22.5 yards (-115 at bet365)
Check out full analysis of picks below, or click here to view the full betting card.
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NFL prop picks for Week 11
Rico-la
I got burned last week by betting the Over on a Dallas Cowboys running back. So naturally, I'm going right back to the well this week and backing another Cowboys Over this Sunday against the Carolina Panthers.
But here's the twist: I'm staying away from Tony Pollard (who is now on a James Spader-level of blacklist for me) and instead backing some Rico Dowdle odds, with his rushing total sitting at 25.5 yards.
After five straight games of getting five or fewer carries and 18 or fewer yards, Dallas' backup RB broke out last week with a season-high 12 carries and 79 yards. He greatly outplayed Pollard (15/55) and while a lot of his work came in garbage time, he drew praise from HC Mike McCarthy, who praised his running ability right after the game and then said yesterday that Dowdle could see an increase in workload this week.
Cowboys coach Mike McCarthy on if RB Rico Dowdle will see more carries Sunday at Panthers: “We’ll see how the game goes. I’m thrilled to death with the way Rico is playing. But I think we do an excellent job of ball distribution. …The game dictates that. If Rico gets more…
— Michael Gehlken (@GehlkenNFL) November 16, 2023
Now, saying that the game will dictate the usage still suggests that Dowdle's best chance at a busy day is if the game is lopsided, but with a short week — and a Thanksgiving divisional game coming up — McCarthy could be quicker to rest his starters as long as the lead is safe.
And guess what? The Cowboys should be quite comfortable... because the Panthers are bad.
Like, 1-8 bad.
Like, the second-most yards per game allowed to running backs bad.
Like, just got run over by the Bears bad.
Dowdle has been impressive in his limited action, averaging 4.5 yards per carry, and should get at least 5-7 carries due to his Week 11 performance alone. Add in the team likely nursing a big lead against a horrid run defense and I have no doubt that Rico can amass 30 yards at the least.
In addition to his total of 25.5, I'm also likely going to sprinkle a half-unit each on his alt-totals of 40+ yards and 50+ yards, which are priced around +195 and +450, respectively.
Prop: Rico Dowdle Over 25.5 rushing yards (-114 at BetRivers)
Pick made on November 17 at 6:56 p.m. ET.
De'Von... get the TD
The Miami Dolphins' most explosive running back is back on the field this Sunday and is available at plus money to get a touchdown against the Las Vegas Raiders.
That's all we need to know really. I'm all-in on betting De'Von Achane odds; no offense to Raheem Mostert — he's an electric weapon out of the backfield and a fantastic running back... but Achance really is that dude.
In the three weeks that he played at least 40% of the offensive snaps, Achane logged 518 total yards with seven touchdowns and actually led the team in carries in his final game before going down with a knee injury.
His 12.1 yards per carry (1st among RB), four 40+ yard runs (1st), and 11 runs of 10+ yards (15th) — again, all mostly in just three games — highlight his home-run hitting ability and explain why he's been so productive in limited action... and why I'm not concerned about him again playing just 40-50% of the snaps in his return.
I mean, HC Mike McDaniels doesn't seem that concerned, either:
“What kind of money do you have in fantasy football?”
— Jacob Meshel (@JacobMeshel) November 15, 2023
-Mike McDaniel when a reporter asked about the status of De’Von Achane 😂 pic.twitter.com/gUK1nMgDwN
"He was untackleable." Say less Mikey.
The Dolphins offense was able to allow both Achane and Mostert to shine, the latter had five TDs of his own during Achane's three-game spurt, and now here comes a Raiders defense that has allowed the third-most rush yards and seventh-most rush TD to RB on the season... and is about to get a rude awakening after getting to face the punchless Giants and Jets offenses in consecutive weeks.
Mostert's current anytime TD price is in the -140 to -150 range, while I've seen Achane around +105, and as low as -110 at some books — but Caesars is currently posting him at +130, offering fantastic value for one of Miami's most dangerous weapons.
If you want to get really spicy... Achane 2+ TDs is around +850. Just saying.
Prop: De'Von Achane anytime touchdown (+130 at Caesars)
Pick made on November 17 at 12:53 p.m. ET.
Top speed Tank
The Houston Texans passing attack is the current darling of the NFL, with rookie QB C.J. Stroud putting up video game numbers amid consecutive last-minute comebacks, a multi-headed receiving corp that has four different guys capable of hurting you any given Sunday, and now possibly even a running game to lean on.
There's a bit of uncertainty around the productivity of the Texans' pass-catchers entering Sunday, as No. 1 WR Nico Collins is expected to return, after a one-game absence, but is still limited in practice with a calf injury, while Noah Brown might play... but has yet to practice this week with a knee ailment.
That leaves rookie WR Tank Dell the best pass-catcher to back against the Arizona Cardinals, considering he is the healthiest of the team's top receivers and leads the team in target share.
However, with him hauling in just 48% of his targets over the last two weeks — and failing to top 57 yards in four of his last five games — his receiving yards total of 58.5 is a little concerning... but the Tank Dell odds I'm most confident in is his ability to have a reception of 23+ yards or longer.
Dell didn't have the most productive day last week against Cincinnati, but Stroud showed a new propensity to push the ball downfield (complemented by an effective rushing attack):
C.J. Stroud pushed the ball downfield in the Texans 30-27 victory over the Bengals, averaging a career-high 11.9 air yards per attempt.
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) November 12, 2023
Stroud completed 11 of 19 passes over 10 air yards for 259 yards, including 5 of 7 deep passes for 146 yards.#HOUvsCIN | #WeAreTexans pic.twitter.com/JBAd2KcFcw
If Stroud continues to increase his vertical throws, the main recipient should be Dell, regardless of who plays: The speedy rookie is the in Top 25 in the NFL in deep (20+ yard) targets, while leading the Texans with a 21.1% deep-target rate and an ADOT of 14.0 yards.
Per Pro Football Focus, he's also been Houston's best WR against zone defenses, leading the team with a 25.4% target share and an air yard percentage of 83.1% — good numbers against a Cardinals defense that plays zone at the fourth-highest rate in the league but allows the third-most yards per zone coverage snap.
Despite being the more proficient deep threat, Dell's long reception line is shorter than that of his teammate Collins and shorter than last week against a tougher defensive matchup.
Arizona's offense got a jolt from the return of Kyler Murray, so the Cards could push Houston to keep the throttle on for all four quarters — meaning more potential of passing from Stroud... and extra deep looks for Dell.
Prop: Tank Dell longest reception Over 22.5 receiving yards (-115 at bet365)
Pick made on November 17 at 7:57 a.m. ET.
Sun God shines
The Detroit Lions offense is one of the most fun to watch in the league — and one of the most fun to bet on with multiple viable options in the passing, rushing, and receiving game.
This Sunday, when the Lions welcome the Chicago Bears to the Motor City, I'm most excited to back one of the hottest WR in football and betting on Amon-Ra St. Brown's odds to again storm past his receiving yardage total of 85.5 yards.
St. Brown is averaging 107.1 receiving yards per game over his last seven contests, topping 100 yards in six of them. His only blemish was a 56-yard game in Week 4... but that was on the road against a solid Packers defense and on a short week when he was nursing abdominal and toe injuries.
The Lions' star is healthy now and ready to continue to do damage against zone coverage — specifically in the middle of the field — where he is one of the league's most lethal receivers:
Amon-Ra St. Brown caught 6 of his 7 targets against zone coverage for 114 yards and a TD in Week 10.
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) November 13, 2023
St. Brown has gained 613 yards against zone coverage this season, 3rd-most in the NFL.#DETvLAC | #OnePride pic.twitter.com/9wPoNF1zJ0
Per Pro Football Focus, the Bears (who allow the seventh-most pass yards per game overall) play zone more than 76% of the time, which is a league-average rate. Chicago's CBs have allowed 86 catches on 114 zone targets — a 75.4% catch rate — with Kyler Gordon (the primary slot corner) allowing an 87.5 percent catch rate while in zone.
St. Brown dominates target share against zone for the Lions, getting 29% of the looks from QB Jared Goff, but he also does his part against man coverage, leading the team as well with a 26.1% target rate.
Consensus projections put St. Brown around 90 yards, with some models going as high as 93. In a matchup that he can definitely exploit, I love the Lions' WR1 to continue his torrid pace and put up another big number on Sunday.
Prop: Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 85.5 receiving yards (-115 at Unibet)
Pick made on November 16 at 11:09 a.m. ET
Run the Jags
After getting lambasted 34-3 last Sunday, look for the Jacksonville Jaguars to get back to their offensive bread-and-butter: Running the rock.
Yes, despite having Trevor Lawrence and Calvin Ridley, and HC Doug Pederson wanting his team to take more shots downfield, the reality is that Jacksonville is at its best when it leans on the ground game — so I'm looking at betting on Travis Etienne's odds to top his rushing total, which opened at 67.5 yards.
In Jacksonville's six wins this season, it ran the ball an average of 32 times per game for an average of 118.3 yards. In three losses, those numbers drop to 20.7 attempts and 83 yards per game.
It seems pretty simple for the Jags: Run a lot and you have a better chance to win... especially against the suddenly awful Tennessee Titans run defense.
After finishing 2022 as the No. 1 rush defense and giving up 70 yards per game in their first four games this year, the Titans' rush defense has surrendered 159.5 ypg on the ground over a four-game stretch from Weeks 5-9. While Tennessee allowed just 77 yards to Tampa Bay last week, that was one of the better performances for Tampa's 31st-ranked ground game, which utilizes its RBs more in short passes than handoffs.
Etienne hasn't been overly efficient, averaging just 3.9 yards per carry on the year, but his value comes in his volume as he's second in the NFL in rushing attempts and has received more than 80% of the Jaguars' RB carries on the season.
Industry consensus projections put Etienne around 75.5 yards, ranging as high as 82.6, and considering the Jags — who are currently favored by a TD — should be leading late against a struggling Tennessee offense, the game script should also help the notion that Etienne will have a full day's worth of work.
Prop: Travis Etienne Jr. Over 67.5 rushing yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Pick made on November 15 at 7:47 p.m. ET
Keep on Keaton' on
The Baltimore Ravens have a new home run hitter in running back Keaton Mitchell, who has broken off multiple big plays in two straight games with his silly fast speed.
When looking at Keaton Mitchell's odds for his TNF matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals, there's uncertainty around how many carries he will get (in a crowded backfield that also features Gus Edwards and Justice Hill), so I'm less interested in his rushing total — which is 15 yards higher than last week — and more interested in his longest rush going Over 13.5 yards.
Mitchell was nursing a wonky hamstring on Sunday, yet still broke off a 39-yard run (albeit he went for -5 yards his other three carries) and a 32-yard reception — and ripped off runs of 40 and 60 yards the previous week against Seattle.
That's basically three 40+-yard runs (on 12 total carries) in two weeks and now a matchup against a Bengals defense that is 28th in rush defense EPA/play, just allowed the plodding Devin Singletary to rip off five carries of 11+ yards, and will likely be without both of its top defensive ends in Trey Hendrickson and Sam Hubbard.
Our Bengals vs. Ravens predictions like Mitchell to find the end zone, doubling down on him being used more on TNF. Industry consensus projections have Mitchell to get around five carries and while I can't say I expect him to rip off another 40-yarder — but I think he can definitely break one for 15-20 yards.
Say he gets closer to double-digit carries — a good possibility as head coach John Harbaugh said he should be more involved this week — and I like this play even more.
Prop: Keaton Mitchell long rush Over 13.5 yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Pick made on November 15 at 11:29 a.m. ET
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NFL Player props to target
Dalvin Cook (Receptions): There's reason to believe he will get more work in the passing game going forward. If his reception total gets posted — ideally at 0.5 — I'm jumping on it.
NFL Week 11 prop betting card
- Keaton Mitchell longest rush Over 13.5 yards (-115)
- Travis Etienne Jr. Over 67.5 rushing yards (-115)
- Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 85.5 receiving yards (-115)
- Tank Dell longest reception Over 22.5 receiving yards (-115)
- De'Von Achane anytime touchdown (+130)
- Rico Dowdle Over 25.5 rushing yards (-114)
Last week: 2-4
Season to date: 25-27, -4.73 units
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