While many sharp sports betting types are quick to dismiss most betting trends for Super Bowl odds, I think there are plenty that are worthy of basing bets around. At the same time, many trends are mere coincidences and hold no relevance to the teams playing.
When it comes to Super Bowl LIX, we've got a mix of each. We've seen trends for both the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles carryover from the regular season into the playoffs that are worth considering. We'll also be flooded with silly ones related to the color of jerseys, who wins the coin toss, and the astronomy signs of each quarterback.
While the silly ones make for fun anecdotes, you shouldn't be dipping into your betting bankroll to back them. We do, however, have a few credible trends for the Chiefs and Eagles that can give us a bit of a head start with handicapping the latest NFL odds.
Let's begin by focusing on the noteworthy trends, and we'll also explore some historical Super Bowl trends, as well as the lighthearted ones that can entertain casual attendees at your Super Bowl party.
For more Super Bowl picks, be sure to check out our Eagles vs. Chiefs predictions and our Super Bowl props!
Team trends
There's no guarantee that these trends carry over from the previous games that each team has played this season, as the Super Bowl differs significantly from your typical regular season or postseason contest. That said, there are a few patterns that stand out for each team that should be on our radars.
Mahomes is money against short spreads
The Kansas City Chiefs can't be trusted to cover big spreads against bottom feeders of the NFL during the regular season, but when it comes to smaller numbers in ultra-competitive playoff matchups, Patrick Mahomes, quite simply, is the man. With Mahomes under center, the Chiefs have gone a perfect 7-0 ATS in playoff games that have spreads inside of three points. Conveniently enough, this game has a spread of 1.5 points.
Eagles are flying high in the first half
Part of the Philadelphia Eagles' success has been getting off to elite starts. They're on a run coming into this game that's seen them have a lead at halftime in 13 of their last 15 games. Their defense has led the way, allowing the third-fewest first-half points this season. Let's not forget the Eagles led by 10 when these teams met in the Super Bowl two years ago. Philly can be had at -105 on the first half moneyline of +0.5 on the spread.
Slow second half starts for the Chiefs
So much for halftime adjustments this season as the Chiefs have been horrible in the third quarter. They enter this game on a 2-12 moneyline slide in the third quarter, thanks primarily to ranking 28th in third-quarter scoring with an average of just 3.3 third-quarter points per game. This includes zero total third-quarter points in each of their playoff games. If you think the pattern continues, you can back the Eagles at -102 on the third-quarter moneyline of +0.5 on the spread.
Historic trends
One Super Bowl has very little connective tissue with the next, so historic Super Bowl trends are almost purely fluff for handicapping this year's game. Yes, Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid now have a four-game sample size in this game, but any casual should be able to tell you that this year's Chiefs roster is much different from their previous Super Bowl teams.
First team to score wins
The team that opens scoring has gone on to win in 37 of 58 Super Bowls (63.7%), including eight of the previous 13. Ironically enough, in the Chiefs’ three recent Super Bowl wins, the opponent scored first, but they scored first in their Super Bowl loss to Tom Brady and the Buccaneers.
Underdogs cover the spread
Point spread underdogs have barked loudest on Super Bowl Sunday over the past 17 games, covering 13 of those contests. That includes Kansas City covering as a small underdog in last season’s Super Bowl against the 49ers and the year before that against the Eagles.
However, Super Bowl favorites still own the all-time edge at 28-27-2 ATS heading into Super Bowl 59 (one Super Bowl closed pick'em — no favorite/underdog).
Super Bowl winners cover the spread
The team that hoists the Lombardi Trophy usually comes through for football bettors in the process, with Super Bowl winners covering the spread in 49 of the past 58 games. The Super Bowl winner has produced just seven ATS losses and two pushes, including the L.A. Rams three years ago, who won 23-20 as a four-point favorite against the Bengals.
Over/Under is a coin-flip
Super Bowl totals have an all-time tally of 29-28 Over/Under, and this year’s is sitting at 48.5 O/U. When these two teams met in Super Bowl LVII, they combined for 73 points, easily going over the 51.5-point total.
Short playoff favorites stink
Postseason favorites of less than a field goal have been a bad bet since the millennium. Faves of less than a field goal (-2.5 or shorter) are just 23-28 SU and 19-31-1 ATS (38%) since 2000. And what do ya know, here we are with another postseason game with a short spread inside of a field goal.
Wide receivers produce the first touchdown
The touchdown scorer markets are hugely popular. The player to score the first TD of the Super Bowl promises a pretty payout. As you shop these odds, keep in mind that wide receivers have produced the first touchdown of the Super Bowl on 25 occasions (43.1% of the time).
Running backs are next with 17 (29.3%), followed by defense/special teams players and tight ends each with five (8.62%), quarterbacks with five (8.6%), and fullbacks with two (3.44%).
Eagles’ QB Jalen Hurts scored the first touchdown when these teams met in the Super Bowl two years ago.
Silly trends that are fun to talk about… and that’s about it
While trends from the regular season and some historical numbers can be reliable to back your bets on, we also have a lot of downright stupid ones that have absolutely nothing to do with the matchup in front of us. Let’s explore!
White jerseys win more
The team wearing white has won 16 of the past 20 Super Bowls, including the Chiefs when they played the Eagles in Super Bowl LVII. Fortunately for the Chiefs, they'll get a chance to extend this trend as it's been announced they'll be rocking their whites in this year's game.
Bet on the team with the worse regular-season record
Fading the team with the better regular-season record has been making bank in the past 20 Super Bowls, with the “better” team winning the Big Game just three times (Super Bowls XLIII, LI, and LVI).
This season, the Chiefs went 15-2 in the regular season while the Eagles went 14-3.
Tails wins the coin flip more
Tails never fails? Well, it doesn’t fail as much as heads…
The coin toss has come up tails in 30 of the 58 Super Bowls. Since Super Bowl XLIX in 2014, the coin toss winner has gone on to lose the Super Bowl in eight of ten games.
Logically, there’s no right way to cap a literal coin flip, but you have a better shot at winning a coin flip bet than that ridiculous 10-leg parlay that your know-it-all friend is pushing in the group text.
