NFL Best Bets and Player Props for Week 13: Parker Comes Through for Pats' Offense

I'm filling in for the esteemed Jared Hochman this week and looking to find some prop value across the board in a post-Thanksgiving haze. There are a ton of injuries to look at and NFL Week 13 odds are showing a slew of lopsided games, which could lead to garbage-time yards — something I'm always happy to bet on.

Indoor games are always a great way to find value, and bettors have four on the slate this week. Poor quarterback play is also a good place to find some value for your NFL picks. If it's ugly on the surface, there is usually some value there in the prop markets. 

December is here and I'm loading up on this week's NFL odds and my favorite Week 13 NFL player props. 

Latest NFL prop picks

• Jameson Williams Over 23.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)
• DeVante Parker Over 33.5 receiving yards (-114 at FanDuel)
•  Jerome Ford Over 50.5 rushing yards (-110 at bet365)
•  Jason Brownlee anytime TD (+1,400 at Caesars)
• Zach Charbonnet Over 48.5 rushing yards (-112 at BetRivers)
• Diontae Johnson Under 47.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)
•  Pat Freiermuth Over 28.5 receiving yards (-114 at FanDuel)

Check out full analysis of picks below, or click here to view the full betting card.

NFL prop picks for Week 13

BJ Loves J-Will

Detroit’s Jameson Williams’ stock is rising and showing in his markets on Saturday. The Jameson Williams odds regarding his receiving yards have moved from the low 20s to the high 20s in some spots after OC Ben Johnson told the media his reps are going to go up with his play at practice and on the field. 

Williams had a closing total of 20.5 last week and finished with two catches for 51 yards on three targets. He also pushed Josh Reynolds for the second-most routes run. There is a good chance Williams finishes with the second-best route rate on Sunday, and that has me buying the Over 23.5s still available as of Saturday. 

This market could easily close at 30.5 but I think the buy point is at 26.5/27.5. It’s an indoor game vs. an offense that put up 444 yards last week. The Saints will also be without starting safety Marcus Maye, making this a good play that checks all the boxes.

Prop: Jameson Williams Over 23.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)

Pick made on December 2 at 10:30 a.m. ET.

Availability presents opportunity

The Patriots are going with Bailey Zappe on Sunday at home vs. the Chargers and the DeVante Parker odds will be a hot topic with him now the de facto No. 1 receiver. Demario Douglas has been ruled out, and so has Kayshon Boutte. With Kendrick Bourne already on the IR, Parker will have a great opportunity to clear his receiving total of 33.5 on volume alone. 

Parker returned to the lineup last week and managed to lead the receivers in route share at 78% and had five targets for a 3/43/0 line. Douglas and Boutte totaled 26 routes in that game and the next man up is JuJu Smith-Schuster who has not been a fit all season.

It’s a game that will likely see the Patriots trail and have to pass the ball as 5-5-point dogs. Even with Mac Jones over the last three games, the Pats still averaged 35.3 passes a game which was higher than half of the league.

There is nothing sexy about this play, but Douglas had closing lines of 47.5 yards before his injury and Parker’s totals have not been adjusted enough. They should be closer to 38.5. 

Prop: DeVante Parker Over 33.5 receiving yards (-114 at FanDuel)

Pick made on December 2 at 10:30 a.m. ET.

Ford fiesta

The Browns didn’t give Jerome Ford the ball enough last week and they had to swallow the loss. It was the first time in four games the No. 1 back didn’t see double-digit carries, and he still had 65 yards on nine carries for 7.2 yards per tote. Over the team's last eight games, Ford has had under 10 carries three times, which have all been losses. If Cleveland wants to win, they have to feed Ford.

He should see his volume increase this week in an indoor game with a likely neutral game script. The quarterback play is dicey, which could result in fewer total plays, but Ford will be leaned on even more Sunday vs. the Rams. 

Backup Kareem Hunt is dealing with a groin injury and has been limited at practice this week, as well as Amari Cooper. The entire Cleveland offense could revolve around Ford this week, and with a modest rushing total of 50.5 that hasn’t been adjusted from Week 12, this is an easy Over for me. 

He can get there on volume or he can get there on efficiency. There are a lot of outs here, and even if the Browns trail early, it is still live. His Milestones at 75+ (+330) and 100+ (+1075) are also live this weekend. 

Prop: Jerome Ford Over 50.5 rushing yards (-110 at bet365)

Pick made on December 1 at 4:15 p.m. ET.

Undrafted gold

There is nothing sexy about backing the New York Jets offense, but when a receiver who played nearly 100% of the snaps last week is being priced at +1,400 for a TD while some other books are as short as +550, it’s tough to say no.

Enter undrafted rookie receiver Jason Brownlee, who played all but one offensive snap last Friday and ran a route on every dropback. It turned into a 2/20/0 on two targets, but getting on the field is more valuable than production without snaps and holds more value, in my opinion. 

The Jets have a team total of 16.5 and have just three offensive TDs over their last five games, but this is a price play more than anything. He has no other markets, but I’ll be waiting Sunday afternoon if some open and will take his Over yards on anything at 15.5 or lower. His 25+ yards could also be something I’d be interested at +170 or better. 

Breece Hall has been limited at practice this week and perhaps the Jets want to see what they have in the rookie wideout — hence the incredible opportunity. No 100% route receiver should be priced at +550 or higher, and the +1,400 odds will be gone by Sunday. This should be priced between +500 and +650.

It’s a 0.25-unit bet for me to win 3.5.

Prop: Jason Brownlee anytime TD (+1,400 at Caesars) 

Pick made on December 1 at 4:15 p.m. ET.

Charbonnet's rising tide

Zach Charbonnet’s rushing market has seen plenty of Over love but I’m still taking it at 48.5 as of this morning. THE BLITZ got on this at 41.5 but is also projecting over 62 yards for the Seattle running back. 

It’s a tough angle to wrap a handicap on, which is why there is some value here. He is a heavy 9-point dog, which will lead to a higher pass rate, but Kenneth Walker is doubtful and Charbonnett has taken 29 of the 32 RB carries in his absence and finished last week with 14 carries for 47 yards in a game that was out of Seattle’s reach early. 

A 12-14-carry day should be expected and if Seattle can keep this game in reach, this could be an easy Over. 

Additionally, Geno Smith is coming off a game where he took five sacks and 12 hits. The right side of his O-line allows the highest pressure rate in football and considering this is one of the worst third-down teams in the league, running early could be a priority. I think this closes as high as 51.5 once Walker is ruled out. 

Prop: Zach Charbonnett Over 48.5 rushing yards (-112 at BetRivers)

Pick made on November 30 at 9:30 a.m. ET.

Double dipping

There has been a lot of Diontae Johnson hate this week after the dramatic receiver took a very important play off last week. There is a lot of ego in the way and there is no way this isn’t addressed this week behind closed doors. 

Bettors are also seeing his markets fall because of it after his receiving total has closed at 50.5 or better for five straight weeks but is falling as low as 45.5 for this Sunday's game.

There is still some worth on his Under at 47.5 at -110. 

For starters, the game script could keep Kenny Pickett handing the ball off to Najee Harris, who was sold last week, and Jaylen Warren, who looks better every week. Pickett threw for a season-high 278 yards last week but also only had 33 dropbacks, which was a number he hadn’t reached since Week 1. 

Additionally, Pat Freiemuth is back and eating into the target share. In his second game back from injury, the TE had 11 targets on a 66% route share that could increase again this week. The tight end finished with nine catches (on 35 dropbacks) for 120 yards.  

Thirty-nine of his 50 receiving yards came on one play last week and even Allen Robinson is cutting into his snaps/routes.

It was a better-looking offense under new play-caller Mike Sullivan but with the boost in Freiermuth’s snaps and a lot of heat for his commitment to his team, it’s a fade on Johnson this week at 47.5 yards and a green light on the TE at 28.5. 

I’m playing Johnson’s Under to 44.5 and Freiermuth’s Over to 33.5. 

Prop: Diontae Johnson Under 47.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)

Prop: Pat Freiermuth Over 28.5 receiving yards (-114 at FanDuel)

Pick made on November 30 at 9:30 a.m. ET.

NFL Player props to target

These are yet-to-be released markets I have my eye on. If it comes out at a number/price I like... I'm likely going to bet on it.

DeVante Parker (receiving yards): I'll be looking for a number below 33 yards on DeVante Parker's receiving yards and might even play it up to 36/37 if Demario Douglas is ruled out. He could be a clear-cut No.1 receiver in a game with nothing but negative game script. It's not sexy backing the QB play but this could be a small number after closing at 21.5 last week.  

Cedric Tillman (receiving yards): Cedric Tillman is coming off an 89% route share where he also played 89% of the snaps. He had five targets and turned that into four catches for 55 yards last week. Amari Cooper is banged up and it's an indoor game. I'll take his Over on anything in the "teens." He is a good milestone candidate. 

Donovan Peoples-Jones (receiving yards): I'll be looking for a Sunday market on the Detroit receiver who has not fit into this offense. Donovan Peoples-Jones saw seven snaps and zero targets last week in a game with a negative game script. He has seven routes and one target over two games with his new team and if books give me any line on this, I'm willing to hit the Under, even on a 5.5-yard total.   

NFL Week 13 prop betting card

• Zach Charbonnet Over 48.5 rushing yards (-112)
• Diontae Johnson Under 47.5 receiving yards (-110)
• Pat Freiermuth Over 28.5 receiving yards (-114)
• Jerome Ford Over 50.5 rushing yards (-110)
• Jason Brownlee anytime TD (+1,400)

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