I'm on a roll now with my NFL player props, going 8-2 over the last two weeks, including a perfect 8-0 on rushing props, and both Ls on pass-related plays.
So of course I'm starting things off with two receiving props.
Hear me out though, OK? I'm passing on TNF (because yuck; if you want Broncos vs. Saints predictions, Jason Logan has you covered), and it just so happens most of the rushing matchups I like are on Monday night.
Considering my NFL picks generally focus on the Sunday slate, here we are. We can only work with what we have — but what we have are some superstar WRs against vulnerable secondaries, which is how I'm starting my best props for Week 7.
Latest NFL prop picks
Jefferson o91.5 rec yards
(-120 at bet365)
Brown o66.5 rec yards
(-120 at BetMGM)
Check out full analysis of picks below, or click here to view the full betting card.
NFL prop picks for Week 7
Justin Jefferson Over 91.5 receiving yards
Keeping the theme of "superstar wide receivers," I'm betting the Over on Justin Jefferson's odds, despite the highest receiving yards total of anyone this week.
This is a number JJ has topped in two of his last four contests, averaging 97.8 yards per game average in that span. That includes 92 yards two weeks ago in a rainy matchup against the New York Jets' vaunted secondary, in what was quarterback Sam Darnold's worst game of the season thus far.
Darnold, Jefferson, and the Minnesota Vikings had a chance to reset during a bye week following that game, and now get to face a not-so-scary Detroit Lions pass defense that has allowed the most receptions (19) and yards (211) per game to wide receivers, and took a massive hit in losing superstar pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson to injury last week.
That should give Darnold extra time to find open receivers; and he looks at nobody more than Jefferson, who has more than half of all the Vikings' WR targets and receptions.
This game has shootout potential, as one of three games this week with a total north of 50, and with the Lions allowing bona fide No. 1s in Cooper Kupp, Metcalf, and Lamb, to go for 110, 104, and 89 yards, I'd expect the league's best receiver to put up another monster day.
Industry projections sit as high as 109 for Jefferson on Sunday, adding a little confidence that he can — and will — torment the Lions.
Pick made on 10-17
A.J. Brown Over 66.5 receiving yards
Yes, yes, this is the Saquon Barkley revenge game, but the value is in A.J. Brown odds, as his receiving yards total seems curiously low.
Brown has played just two games so far this season but he recorded 116 and 119 in those contests — while facing tough competition.
The Philadelphia Eagles star WR faced Jaire Alexander in Week 1, catching 4/6 targets for 108 yards, then went 6/8 for 117 yards against the Cleveland Browns trio of Denzel Ward, Martin Emerson Jr., and Greg Newsome last week.
This Sunday, he'll likely see a lot of New York Giants CB Deonte Banks, who, well, isn't great: He's among the 14th most-targeted CBs this season, allowing a 63% completion rate and 14.7 yards per completion.
So far against top-tier perimeter receivers, he's allowed Justin Jefferson, Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, D.K. Metcalf, and Tee Higgins to average 75 yards per game just while in his coverage... and A.J. is right among those dudes.
The weather is expected to be nice in New York, with early forecasts around 76 degrees with light wind, and industry projections range as high as 83 yards for Brown on Sunday. This is another matchup where he should feast.
Pick made on 10-16
NFL Week 7 prop betting card
- Justin Jefferson Over 91.5 receiving yards (-120)
- A.J. Brown Over 66.5 receiving yards (-120)
Last week: 4-1, +2.64 units
Season: 17-13, +2.71 units
Not intended for use in MA.
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