The Philadelphia Eagles won’t have much time to enjoy their Week 11 win over the Chiefs as they’ll host the Buffalo Bills in Week 12 as 3-point NFL odds favorites.
With the Bills rolling into Lincoln Financial Field with significant injuries to their secondary, are the Eagles the right side to back on Sunday?
I break down the Week 12 odds and offer my free NFL picks for Bills vs. Eagles on November 26.
Bills vs Eagles odds
Bills vs Eagles predictions
The Philadelphia Eagles were listed at -3.5 on the look-ahead line for this Week 12 clash. Following their fortunate win vs. the Chiefs — coupled with the Buffalo Bills’ blowout of the Jets — this line reopened at -3 and has bounced between -3 and -3.5.
Once Saturday comes around and the injuries to the Buffalo secondary are much clearer, it might be hard to find even some expensive -3s.
Entering Week 11, the Bills were already without Matt Milano (their best coverage linebacker), corner Tre’Davious White, and safety Kaiir Elam, before also losing a trio of starters last week in Taron Johnson, Taylor Rapp, and Dane Jackson. Considering the severity of those injuries, it’s tough to see a scenario where Buffalo comes into this meeting with a decent stable of defensive backs.
The Buffalo passing defense also didn’t have to do anything vs. the Jets last week, as Zach Wilson and Co. totaled just 155 yards of offense. The Bills won’t have the luxury of doing that as the Eagles' passing attack could have a giant game coming off a short week.
Between Weeks 7 and 10, the Bills faced Mac Jones, Baker Mayfield, Joe Burrow, and Russell Wilson. Those four quarterbacks averaged 26.25 completions on 36.25 passes (72.4%) for 262.5 yards and 2.0 TDs to 0.0 INTs. The Bills’ defense also ranked 31st in EPA/play and 30th in EPA/dropback over that stretch.
I'm excited about buying in on the Eagles at -3, and I'm willing to overlook the potential letdown spot and the short week. Keep in mind that the Bills have their bye next week and could be eying that as well.
My best bet: Eagles -3 (-115 at PointsBet)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
Bills vs Eagles same-game parlay
Eagles -2.5
Jalen Hurts Over 37.5 rushing yards
A.J. Brown 100+ receiving yards
There are no flat numbers at bet365 for SGPs, so I'm taking the -2.5 here.
Jalen Hurts' knee issues are behind him, and following a nine-carry day (three kneel-downs) and two scores in Week 11, he is ready to push his rushing total back up to the mid-40s.
And although A.J. Brown was a non-factor last week thanks to Kanas City's defense, I expect the All-Pro wideout to crush a gutted Buffalo defense. He could easily lead all receivers in yards in Week 12.
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Bills vs Eagles spread and Over/Under analysis
Despite the easy victory for the Bills in Week 11, they lost three key defensive backs and these potential losses are catastrophic and tough to overcome vs. an offense as deep as the Eagles.
The Buffalo offense shouldn’t get a big upgrade after last week either as it saw great field position all game last week and benefited from 10 points off of turnovers. This is an offense that just sacrificed its offensive coordinator last week because of poor results, and a win over the Jets shouldn’t change that.
The Bills struggled to score vs. decent defenses in recent weeks in Denver and Cincinnati and this will be the best defense they have faced since matching up against Jacksonville. I’m not very high on the Bills hitting their team total of 22.5 this week.
The total sat at 47.5 on the look-ahead and has been bet up to as high as 48.5. The Philly offense has a great matchup but the pace of play might be a problem here as both clubs rank in the Bottom 6 in a neutral context.
Neither team has been profitable to the Over on the season and there is also a small chance of rain on Sunday afternoon at Lincoln Financial Field.
Bills vs Eagles betting trend to know
Philadelphia has scored first in 17 of its last 21 games (+11.05 Units / 34% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Bills vs. Eagles.
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Bills vs Eagles game info
| Location: | Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA |
| Date: | Sunday, November 26, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 4:25 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
| Opening odds: | Eagles -3.5, 47.5 |
Bills vs Eagles latest injuries
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