It’s an AFC East affair on Monday Night Football when the Buffalo Bills visit the New York Jets.
The Week 6 finale has watched it's Over/Under get whittled down this week, currently sitting at 40.5 points, which doesn’t allow much variance in the “touchdown anytime” odds.
The respective running backs — Breece Hall and James Cook — are the front runners to find paydirt and only four players sit shorter than 2/1 in the popular prop market.
I size up the “TD anytime” prices along with the Monday Night Football matchups, giving my best NFL picks and predictions for Bills at Jets on October 14.
Bills anytime touchdown pick
Josh Allen anytime touchdown
+135 at FanDuel
After opening the season with two rushing touchdowns in Week 1, Josh Allen has been shut out of the end zone the past four games.
That’s a considerable drought for the speedy Buffalo Bills’ quarterback, who scrambled for 15 touchdowns last season and never went more than two games without finding paydirt.
Allen is always an option when Buffalo creeps inside the 20-yard line. His nine red-zone carries rank fifth among QBs entering Week 6 and he finished second among QBs in that same stats in 2023 (33 carries).
New York enters Monday Night Football as one of the better red-zone defenses, giving up touchdowns on just 41.67% of RZ stands this season. However, it hasn’t faced a dual-threat QB as dangerous as Allen, who can freestyle when plays break down or have his own number called on QB keepers.
Allen hasn’t had great success passing against this Jets defense in previous meetings and will find himself running away from New York’s vaunted pass rush. Gang Green is sixth in pressure rate with the seventh-highest QB hurry percentage per dropback.
Allen’s player projections for Week 6 range from 0.3 to 0.5 touchdown runs, with my number at 0.45 TDs. Given he’s touching the ball on every red zone snap, there’s a good chance he tucks and runs for the goal line on MNF.
Jets anytime touchdown pick
Allen Lazard anytime touchdown
+310 at FanDuel
The New York Jets offense gets an overhaul of sorts with the play calling being ripped from OC Nathanial Hackett and handed to offensive assistant Todd Downing in Week 6.
While there are plenty of broken pieces to this playbook that need fixing, Allen Lazard isn’t one of them.
The veteran WR has been the most consistent producer for the Jets’ passing game, scoring four touchdowns in the opening five weeks of action. Lazard is second on the team in targets — well behind Garrett Wilson — but is just one target behind his fellow WR when it comes to work in the red zone (8 targets to Wilson’s 9).
Lazard has been working out of the slot a lot more in the past two games and while he faces a Buffalo defense that’s done a great job limiting wideouts, the Bills have been more susceptible to slot receivers.
Lazard’s forecast for MNF calls for between 0.24 and 0.4 touchdowns, with a consensus around 0.32 touchdowns. Yet despite that and his success scoring so far in 2024, the TD anytime market still prices him above 3/1.
Not intended for use in MA.
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