Two of the best teams in the NFL meet in a huge showdown on Sunday as Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills visit the 12-1 Detroit Lions at Ford Field.
My Bills vs Lions predictions like David Montgomery to find the end zone once again while teammate Jahmyr Gibbs will also get back on track against a subpar Buffalo run defence.
Keep reading for my best Bills vs. Lions player props and NFL picks for Sunday, December 15.
Bills vs Lions props
- Montgomery anytime TD (-155 at BetMGM)
- Gibbs Over 66.5 rush yds (-115 at BetMGM)
- Allen Over 259.5 pass yds (-115 at BetMGM)
Read full analysis of each pick.
Bills vs Lions props
Prop bet #1: David Montgomery anytime touchdown
Ever since coming over from the Chicago Bears, David Montgomery has been an absolute beast in the Detroit Lions backfield, forming a dynamic partnership with Gibbs.
The 27-year-old is balling out in 2024, rushing for 4.3 yards per carry and 771 yards overall. The number that stands out, however, is his 12 touchdowns. That will be the focus here.
Whether Montgomery carries the ball eight times or 15 times in a game, he always seems to find the end zone. There’s only been three contests this season where the RB hasn’t registered a touchdown.
He ran the football to the house in the Lions’ last game against the Green Bay Packers and had four TDs in as many games prior to that.
While I’ll get into it more with the Gibbs pick, the Buffalo Bills do not defend the run very well. Monty is almost a guarantee for a touchdown every week, hence the odds sitting at -155. But it’s worth the risk.
Lock it in.
Prop bet #2: Jahmyr Gibbs Over 66.5 rushing yards
Boy, did the Lions make the right decision drafting Jahmyr Gibbs out of Alabama. The Swiss Army knife has developed into one of the best backs in the league, and it looks like it will be that way for many years to come. While he’s run the rock a tad less than Montgomery, the numbers are better.
Gibbs has rushed for 1,016 yards and 5.7 yards per carry, including 10 touchdowns of his own. Although the former Crimson Tide standout rushed for just 43 yards against the Packers on December 5, he comfortably hit the Over in rushing yards in four consecutive appearances before that.
The Bills are 19th in run defense and will likely have a difficult time slowing down the duo of Gibbs and Montgomery. I don’t see any issues with Gibbs cashing the Over on Sunday.
Prop bet #3: Josh Allen Over 259.5 passing yards
Josh Allen is on track to likely win MVP this season, which is truly remarkable considering the lack of weapons he actually has on the Buffalo Bills roster.
The quarterback is putting up eye-popping numbers, throwing for 3,033 yards and 23 touchdowns against just five interceptions. He’s also been a menace on the ground, rushing for nine touchdowns and 5.2 yards per carry.
Despite a Week 14 loss to the Rams, Allen threw for 342 yards and three touchdowns. In fact, he’s hit the Over in passing yards in three of the last four games, also cashing the Over against the Kansas City Chiefs and Indianapolis Colts.
Both Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid are probably back in action on Sunday, giving Allen two key targets out wide. The Lions, meanwhile, don’t have many weaknesses, but one is their pass defense, ranking 24th in the NFL.
I expect this to be a very entertaining game, and Allen will be focusing on the passing game.
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