Both the Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers are coming off heartbreaking losses as they get set to meet for Thursday Night Football.
While Brock Purdy is coming off his worst game of the season against the Arizona Cardinals, he’s in a perfect position to bounce back against Seattle.
With the Seahawks’ defensive numbers misleading, the Brocky Purdy odds for Thursday, October 10 pose great value. We break down his props and NFL picks in our 49ers vs. Seahawks predictions below.
Make sure to also check out our 49ers vs. Seahawks props and 49ers vs Seahawks live blog before placing your bets!
Brock Purdy TNF player prop picks
- Best bet
Over 253.5 passing yards
(-113 at FanDuel) - SGP Pick
Brock Purdy Over 253.5 passing yards
Brock Purdy Over 1.5 passing touchdowns
Brandon Aiyuk Over 4.5 receptions
(+280 at FanDuel)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Brock Purdy TNF prop pick
My best bet
Over 253.5 passing yards (-113 at FanDuel)
My analysis
On the surface, it might seem like a solid bet to take the Under on Brock Purdy’s passing yards against a Seattle Seahawks team that ranks 10th in EPA per dropback on defense.
However, added context is needed before blindly backing Mike Macdonald’s defense.
The Seahawks benefited hugely from playing three of the worst passing offenses during the first three weeks of the season. Bo Nix, Jacoby Brissett, and the combo of Skylar Thompson and Tim Boyle averaged just 157.6 passing yards per game against the Seahawks.
Nix, Brissett, and Thompson all rank 31st or worse in EPA per play this season among QBs who have taken at least 40 snaps. Meanwhile, Jared Goff and Daniel Jones, who rank 18th and 20th respectively, have torched Seattle the last two weeks.
Jones and Goff combined to average 20.5 completions on 26 attempts for 274.5 passing yards and two scores against the Seahawks. Both eclipsed 253.5 passing yards against them, and Purdy should too.
The San Francisco 49ers QB is currently sixth in the NFL in EPA per play among QBs who have played at least 100 snaps, and he’s averaging 274.8 passing yards per game this season — which includes eclipsing 253.5 yards in three of his last four games.
Purdy hasn’t shied away from making difficult throws either, as he sits fourth in the league in big-time throws (9) and second in ADOT (10.7). He’s one of only two QBs in the NFL with an ADOT above 10 yards and an adjusted completion rate above 72%.
Also working in Purdy's favor are Deebo Samuel and George Kittle both being healthy, while Brandon Aiyuk appears to have returned to form after an impressive performance against the Cardinals.
Brock Purdy TNF same-game parlay
Brock Purdy Over 253.5 passing yards
Brock Purdy Over 1.5 passing touchdowns
Brandon Aiyuk Over 4.5 receptions
With Purdy poised to be slinging the rock against the Hawks, he should be capable of throwing at least two touchdowns against this pass defense. Seattle’s allowed two touchdown passes in each of its last two games, and several key defenders are dealing with injuries.
Star cornerback Riq Woolen (ankle), starting safeties Julian Love (hamstring) and Rayshawn Jenkins (hand), defensive tackle Byron Murphy (hamstring), and edge rushers Derick Hall (foot), Uchenna Nwosu (thigh), and Boye Mafe (knee) have all either been limited in practice or have not practiced this week.
With three Pro Bowl pass catchers ready to rock and Jauan Jennings emerging as the best WR3 option in the league, Purdy should be able to pick apart this defense.
Meanwhile, Aiyuk could be the key against the Seahawks. He was unstoppable against the Cardinals, boasting 147 yards on eight receptions while finishing seventh in the NFL in yards per route run in Week 5 (3.87). Expect a healthy dose of targets his way, which should help him surpass 4.5 receptions for the third time in four games.
It also helps him that Woolen is dealing with an injury and other starting outside cornerback Tre Brown is allowing a 139.7 QB rating when targeted this season. Nickel CB Devon Witherspoon has also given up the most receptions on the team (18) and is allowing a 72% completion rate when targeted.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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