The NFL Thanksgiving schedule closes high in the mountains where the Denver Broncos battle the Cleveland Browns on Monday Night Football in Week 13.
Cleveland enjoyed a mini bye after picking up a much-needed victory last Thursday, and my early Browns vs. Broncos predictions expect another great effort from Winston & Co. in Week 13.
Browns vs Broncos predictions
Early spread lean
Cleveland Browns +5.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
My analysis
The Denver Broncos opened as short as 4.5-point favorites, and early money quickly tacked on an extra point to the spread, with the industry consensus now at -5.5.
Outside of laying -13 against the catastrophic Carolina Panthers, this current spread is the second-tallest pile of points Denver has had this season.
The Broncos have been stronger at home, with a +9.6 average margin of victory at Mile High (fifth highest in the NFL), and have only played in front of the Denver faithful twice in the past six games.
The Cleveland Browns bring an aggressive defense to the Rockies, ranked No. 1 in pressure rate in the league while blitzing at the fifth most frequency. That pass rush will be a challenge for Broncos’ rookie QB Bo Nix, who sees his output sharply decline when under duress.
That said, Nix is playing behind one of the better offensive lines in the land, with Denver’s pass protection ranked tops in the pass block win rate and allowing the young QB to feel pressure on only 18% of dropbacks. That battle in the trenches will determine this game.
I’m skeptical of the Broncos’ recent offensive success, especially with those big scores coming against the likes of Atlanta and Las Vegas — two defenses rated in the bottom third of the NFL.
Denver will once again lean into its defense to get the job done, which sets this MNF meeting up for a low-scoring grinder. With points at a premium, I’m not sure Denver will score enough to get past the -5.5. Consider taking Cleveland in your NFL picks.
Early Over/Under lean
Under 41.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
My analysis
This Over/Under opened at 40.5 and climbed to 41.5 points after another high-scoring effort from the Broncos in Week 12.
As I mentioned above, that scoring success could be difficult to replicate against the Browns, who are one of the more disruptive defenses in the league and have had extra time to scheme for Nix and the Broncos in Week 13.
Denver’s defense has been the backbone of the Broncos’ surprise surge, ranking No. 3 in EPA allowed per play as well as opponent success rate per play. The Broncos also blitz at a high rate and won’t give Cleveland QB Jameis Winston much time in the pocket to let downfield routes develop.
When matched up against other capable stop units, the Broncos have found themselves in low-scoring, tight games vs. the likes of Pittsburgh, Kansas City, and the L.A. Chargers. I’m leaning Under on the total now that this number has peaked over the key number of 41 points.
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Browns vs Broncos live odds
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