Early Browns vs Broncos Predictions, Picks, and Odds for MNF Week 13

The Denver Broncos have a winning record with rookie QB Bo Nix, but this Cleveland defense will slow him down enough to ensure a cover for the Browns.

Jason Logan: Senior Betting Analyst at Covers
Jason Logan • Senior Betting Analyst
Nov 26, 2024 • 09:49 ET • 4 min read
Myles Garrett Cleveland Browns NFL
Photo By - Imagn Images. Ogbo Okoronkwo crowns Myles garrett following a sack.

The NFL Thanksgiving schedule closes high in the mountains where the Denver Broncos battle the Cleveland Browns on Monday Night Football in Week 13.

Cleveland enjoyed a mini bye after picking up a much-needed victory last Thursday, and my early Browns vs. Broncos predictions expect another great effort from Winston & Co. in Week 13.

Browns vs Broncos predictions

Early spread lean
Cleveland Browns +5.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

My analysis
The Denver Broncos opened as short as 4.5-point favorites, and early money quickly tacked on an extra point to the spread, with the industry consensus now at -5.5.

Outside of laying -13 against the catastrophic Carolina Panthers, this current spread is the second-tallest pile of points Denver has had this season.

The Broncos have been stronger at home, with a +9.6 average margin of victory at Mile High (fifth highest in the NFL), and have only played in front of the Denver faithful twice in the past six games.

The Cleveland Browns bring an aggressive defense to the Rockies, ranked No. 1 in pressure rate in the league while blitzing at the fifth most frequency. That pass rush will be a challenge for Broncos’ rookie QB Bo Nix, who sees his output sharply decline when under duress.

That said, Nix is playing behind one of the better offensive lines in the land, with Denver’s pass protection ranked tops in the pass block win rate and allowing the young QB to feel pressure on only 18% of dropbacks. That battle in the trenches will determine this game.

I’m skeptical of the Broncos’ recent offensive success, especially with those big scores coming against the likes of Atlanta and Las Vegas — two defenses rated in the bottom third of the NFL. 

Denver will once again lean into its defense to get the job done, which sets this MNF meeting up for a low-scoring grinder. With points at a premium, I’m not sure Denver will score enough to get past the -5.5. Consider taking Cleveland in your NFL picks.

Early Over/Under lean
Under 41.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

My analysis
This Over/Under opened at 40.5 and climbed to 41.5 points after another high-scoring effort from the Broncos in Week 12. 

As I mentioned above, that scoring success could be difficult to replicate against the Browns, who are one of the more disruptive defenses in the league and have had extra time to scheme for Nix and the Broncos in Week 13.

Denver’s defense has been the backbone of the Broncos’ surprise surge, ranking No. 3 in EPA allowed per play as well as opponent success rate per play. The Broncos also blitz at a high rate and won’t give Cleveland QB Jameis Winston much time in the pocket to let downfield routes develop.

When matched up against other capable stop units, the Broncos have found themselves in low-scoring, tight games vs. the likes of Pittsburgh, Kansas City, and the L.A. Chargers. I’m leaning Under on the total now that this number has peaked over the key number of 41 points.

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Jason Logan Senior Industry Analyst Covers.com
Senior Betting Analyst

In his 20 years with Covers, lead NFL betting analyst “JLo” has seen it all and bet it all. Through the wild west of early Internet gambling to lobbying for legalized sports betting to our brave new wagering world, Jason has been a consistent source of actionable info and entertainment for squares and sharps alike.

Since joining the Covers team back in 2005, he’s honed his handicapping skills to provide audiences with the most thorough insights, blending traditional capping methods with advanced modelling and predictive analysis. Jason has studied the ins and outs of the sports betting business, learning from some of the most successful gamblers in the industry and the biggest sportsbook operators on the planet.

He is under center for Covers during NFL season as our top NFL expert, taking the points in his infamous “NFL Underdogs” column and representing the Covers Community at the Super Bowl. While he lives for football season, Jason’s first love is basketball and that shows in his in-depth NBA, NCAA, and WNBA betting breakdowns.

On top of being a mainstay in media from coast to coast – WPIX, PHL17, Fox 5 San Diego, WGNO, TSN, SportsNet, ESPN Radio – he’s had his analysis featured in USA Today, MSNBC, ESPN, the Wall Street Journal, CBS, Bloomberg, the L.A. Times, the New York Times and other major publications. You can also find JLo stuffing all the top picks and predictions he can into 10 minutes as the host of Covers’ flagship podcast, The Sharp 600.

His best advice for bettors new and old is “Handicapping isn’t a ‘one size fits all’ process. The impact and importance of information varies from bet to bet. Treat each wager different than the last.”

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