Buccaneers vs 49ers Odds, Picks, and Predictions Week 11: San Francisco Will Have Baker Running for His Life

The San Fransisco 49ers came out of the bye with a bang last week and will look to put that three-game losing streak behind them in Week 11 odds. They currently sit as a double-digit favorite vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for Sunday's meeting.

With a likely negative game script and a heavy passing workload on the way, is Mayfield’s rushing prop something bettors should be looking at to hit the Over? 

I break down the NFL odds and offer my free NFL picks for Buccaneers vs. 49ers on November 19. 

Buccaneers vs 49ers odds

Buccaneers vs 49ers predictions

Baker Mayfield has rushed for double-digit yards in six of his nine games this year and has consistently had three or more rushes in nearly all of his games this season.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback currently has a rushing total of 10.5, with THE BLITZ projecting the former first overall pick to finish with 17.2. As a double-digit dog, the Bucs could be in pass mode early and often on Sunday.

The San Francisco 49ers got back on track after the bye last week in a 34-3 win over the Jaguars. That would be an ideal game script for Mayfield to increase his scramble opportunities.

Mayfield has also played a role in 7.5% of the team's planned runs, accounting for 16 of them out of his total 38 rushes. While his scrambles have been more effective, he typically contributes with a designed run or two in each game.

The 49ers enter Week 11 as an 11.5-point favorite in a game with 12-mph winds and sunshine. With no run game to rely on, Tampa will be forced to up its pass rate in a game that it will likely trail early. The Bucs' defense could also be without middle linebacker Devin White, who has been limited this week at practice, along with starting right tackle Luke Goedeke. Any loss on defense would only help to keep this a negative game script for Mayfield.  

Tampa led for the majority of the game last week vs. the Titans and Baker ran three times for 13 yards. In games where Mayfield has thrown more than 30 passes, he’s averaging 5.0 carries and 19 yards per game. The Over of 10.5 is 5-1 in those six games. 

The Tampa QB is also dealing with a banged-up thumb ahead for this one. Although Mayfield isn’t on the injury report, a hurt-throwing hand could possibly lead to an extra carry or two, especially considering the double-digit wind that is expected. 

My best bet: Baker Mayfield Over 10.5 rushing yards (-110)

Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Buccaneers vs 49ers same-game parlay

Baker Mayfield Over 10.5 rushing yards

49ers team total Over 27.5

Rachaad White 25+ receiving yards

+550 at bet365

This SGP is based heavily on the expectation of Tampa Bay playing from behind. That would increase rushing opportunities for Mayfield and keep Rachaad White in more of a pass-catcher role. White is averaging 57 receiving yards per game over his last four contests. 

Meanwhile, the 49ers' offense could go on a roll following a much-needed Week 9 bye to get healthy. Brock Purdy looked better last week, and if Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, and Christian McCaffrey are all going, nobody is stopping them.  

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Buccaneers vs 49ers spread and Over/Under analysis

The 49ers sat as -10 favorites on the look-ahead, reopened at -10.5, and have hit as high as -11 as of Friday afternoon. San Francisco entered its bye on a three-game losing streak, but the time off helped the roster get healthier as Samuel and All-Pro left tackle Trent Williams returned to the field. 

Tampa Bay comes into this game with just one win over its last five games. Just two weeks ago, Houston accumulated 500-plus yards and 39 points against the Bucs. The 49ers’ team total is sitting at 27.5, and with its offense as healthy as it’s been all season, I certainly lean toward the Over. 

Making Tampa Bay one-dimensional on offense might not be difficult for the 49ers’ defense. Tampa is one of the worst rushing teams in football, averaging a league-worst 3.1 yards per carry.

Meanwhile, forcing Mayfield to throw the ball 35+ times has resulted in an 0-3 straight up record for the Bucs. San Francisco is coming off holding Trevor Lawrence to under 200 yards passing and a pair of interceptions while also generating five sacks last week. Expect a similar result on Sunday. 

This total was listed as 42.5 on the look-ahead and has taken some Under money, hitting as low as 41 this week. I’m more favorable of the Niners’ team total Over rather than the full game, as the Bucs’ performance last week against Tennessee was not impressive. 

Tampa failed to score in the red zone in that game and currently owns one of the worst RZ offenses at 45%, which ranks 28th. Since the look-ahead, the spread has moved towards the 49ers and towards the Under. 

Buccaneers vs 49ers betting trend to know

The Buccaneers have only hit the first quarter moneyline in five of their last 20 games (-8.60 Units / -35% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Buccaneers vs. 49ers.

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