After three straight wins, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are in pole position in the NFC South, but we’ll get a better sense of their playoff credentials on Sunday as they visit the well-drilled Los Angeles Chargers.
A friendly schedule has masked some erratic Tampa Bay performances over the past month, so my Buccaneers vs. Chargers predictions point to L.A. edging this one and all but clinching a wild-card spot.
Take a closer look at today's marquee matchup with my NFL picks and betting tips for this 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff on FOX.
Buccaneers vs Chargers prediction
Who will win Buccaneers vs Chargers?
Both these teams are on course for the playoffs, but I’m putting more faith in what we’ve seen from the Chargers against elite AFC opposition.
They were inches away from toppling the Kansas City Chiefs last time out, and their defense provides a well-rounded threat to keep Baker Mayfield off balance.
Prediction: Buccaneers 16, Chargers 22
My best bet
Chargers -3 (-105 at BetMGM)
My analysis
It’s rarely been pretty, but this is the new Los Angeles Chargers. The days of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory are over with Jim Harbaugh at the helm, and this is the type of gritty, no-nonsense team that no one should want to face in the postseason.
This Week 15 showdown is shaping up to be another tight battle, but I’m sticking with the Chargers as slight favorites. They’re 9-4 ATS this season, while covering six of their last seven games.
The one big vulnerability on either team is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ pass defense. The visitors are leaking 253.4 yards per game, third most in the league, and that could tilt the third down tussle in L.A.’s favor, with Justin Herbert throwing 335 passes since his last interception.
On the other side of the ball, the Chargers have held 11 of their 13 opponents to 20 points or fewer, and they’re allowing the fewest points per game in the NFL this season (15.9).
That L.A. strength will be tested here against Mike Evans and a talented Buccaneers run game, but I’m wagering on the hosts to cover this small spread. After all, each of their eight wins this year have come by at least four points.
Buccaneers vs Chargers same-game parlay
Chargers -3
Justin Herbert Over 20.5 completions
Rachaad White anytime touchdown
L.A. has greatly reduced the burden on Justin Herbert to conjure up plays in the passing game this year, but this matchup calls for a larger dose of the aerial attack.
Tampa Bay arrives with a decimated secondary, and Ladd McConkey’s expected return is timely for the hosts. I see the Chargers dialing up more chances for Herbert to drop back, and he’s reached 21 completions in two of his last three outings.
The Buccaneers’ backfield committee continues to impress, and it was Rachaad White who stepped up last weekend after Bucky Irving left the game with back and hip issues.
There’s every chance that Irving is on a more limited snap count if he’s cleared to play on Sunday, so White looks like a high-value anytime touchdown pick. He’s found the end zone eight times in his past seven outings.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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More NFL picks and odds from Covers
Buccaneers vs Chargers odds
Buccaneers vs Chargers live odds
Buccaneers vs Chargers opening odds
- Spread: Tampa Bay +3 | Los Angeles -3
- Moneyline: Tampa Bay +125 | Los Angeles -150
- Over/Under: Over 45.5 | Under 45.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
Buccaneers vs Chargers spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Chargers boast a 4-2 mark at SoFi Stadium this year, countering the Bucs’ 4-2 road mark.
- The hosts have covered the 1H spread in 12 of their last 20 contests.
- While the Over is 8-5 for Tampa Bay this season, L.A. has cashed in the Under in nine of its 13 games.
- The Chargers rank just outside the Top 10 in yards allowed per game, and they’ve hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 19 contests.
Buccaneers vs Chargers betting trend to know
The Under is 13-7 in the Chargers’ last 20 games. Find more NFL betting trends for Buccaneers vs. Chargers.
Buccaneers vs Chargers game info
| Location: | SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA |
| Date: | Sunday, 12-15, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 4:25 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
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