The Indianapolis Colts welcome the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to Lucas Oil Stadium on Sunday. The Colts are 5-5 and looking to stay in the playoff race while the 4-6 Bucs will hope to snap out of a skid that has seen them drop five of their last six games.
NFL odds opened with Indy as a slim 1.5-point favorite before shifting to -2.5. Here are my best Buccaneers vs. Colts free NFL picks and predictions for November 26.
Buccaneers vs Colts odds
Buccaneers vs Colts predictions
Colts quarterback Gardner Minshew hasn't looked great lately, but head coach Shane Steichen does a good job of taking what the defense gives him, and the Buccaneers defense gets burned through the air. In fact, the Bucs are actually first in the league in defensive rush EPA but rank 21st in overall EPA and 26th in success rate due to how poorly they defend against the pass.
Tampa Bay is 25th in the league in defensive dropback EPA, and it ranks 31st in passing yards allowed per game (270.7) and 30th in yards allowed per attempt (7.4). The Bucs are also dealing with injuries at cornerback, with Jamel Dean a non-participant in practice on Wednesday and Carlton Davis III limited.
That should make for a favorable matchup for Colts wideout Michael Pittman Jr. Pittman is coming off a game against the Patriots where he hauled in eight of 12 targets for 84 yards. He has racked up more than 80 receiving yards in three of his last five games. Even in the two games during that span where he went below that number, he saw plenty of looks, with eight catches against the Panthers and 13 targets against the Saints.
With Tampa Bay's secondary allowing seven different receivers to eclipse the 100-yard mark this year, take the Over on Pittman's receiving yards total, which is set at a reasonable 68.5.
My best bet: Michael Pittman Over 69.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
Buccaneers vs Colts same-game parlay
Michael Pittman Over 69.5 receiving yards
Colts moneyline
Over 43.5
This is a tough situational spot for the Bucs, who will be playing their fourth road game in the last month. Meanwhile, the Colts are fresh off a bye after back-to-back wins away from home.
With Tampa Bay struggling to defend the pass and its offense scoring more than 20 points just once in the last six games, I like the Colts to win here.
That said, I do think that Baker Mayfield and the Bucs offense should be able to score more than usual here. While the Colts have allowed just 16 points in their last two games those came against pathetic Patriots and Panthers attacks. Prior to those contests, they had surrendered more than 35 points in three consecutive games — including 39 points to a Browns team with P.J. Walker at QB.
With both teams playing so poorly on defense, the Over looks like a good bet to tack on to this parlay.
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Buccaneers vs Colts spread and Over/Under analysis
This line opened with the Colts at -1.5 and the O/U at 42.5. Early money came in on the home side and the Over, shifting the spread to -2.5 and the total to 44. While money and tickets have continued to come in on Indy throughout the week, books have been reluctant to push this spread to that key number of 3.
The Bucs are coming off a 27-14 loss to the 49ers which was their fifth loss in their last six games. That said, they did cover the spread for the fourth straight game in a row.
The Colts are coming off a bye after beating the Patriots 10-6 in Germany in Week 10. They are 5-4 SU and 6-3 ATS in their last nine games and have managed to stay competitive despite losing rookie QB Anthony Richardson to a season-ending injury.
It will interesting to see if their defense will take a step back after waiving four-time All-Pro linebacker Shaquille Leonard on Tuesday. Leonard hasn't been a huge factor this year, but he was still on the field for about 70% of their defensive snaps and has been the heart and soul of this stop unit since 2018.
Buccaneers vs Colts betting trend to know
The Indianapolis Colts have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 19 games (+8.50 Units / 41% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Buccaneers vs. Colts.
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Buccaneers vs Colts game info
| Location: | Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN |
| Date: | Sunday, November 26, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
| Opening odds: | Colts -1.5, 42.5 O/U |
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Buccaneers vs Colts weather
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