The Tampa Bay Buccaneers head to Ford Field this Sunday to take on the Detroit Lions in the third of four Divisional Round matchups.
The Bucs destroyed the Eagles as slight home underdogs in the Wild Card round, and now Divisional Round odds have them getting nearly a touchdown on the road against a Lions squad that's coming off its first playoff win in 32 years to remain alive in the Super Bowl odds.
In addition to the NFL odds having the Lions at -6.5, the Over/Under is listed at 48.5. Here are my best free NFL picks and predictions for Buccaneers vs. Lions on January 21.
Be sure to also check out our Buccaneers vs. Lions prop picks and spotlight picks for Jared Goff odds.
Buccaneers vs Lions odds
Buccaneers vs Lions predictions
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are fresh off a 426-yard explosion in a 32-9 beatdown of the Eagles, but their offense has been wildly inconsistent this season.
They've now scored at least 29 points in four of their last six contests but also managed just 13 points against New Orleans and nine points versus last-place Carolina in crucial games during that stretch. They also had one of their worst offensive displays of the season when they faced the Detroit Lions at Raymond James Stadium back in Week 6, mustering just 251 yards in a 20-6 defeat.
That said, I expect a much better performance from the Bucs and quarterback Baker Mayfield this time. Mayfield threw for 337 yards and three touchdowns against the Eagles last week and he did a great job of spreading the ball around with five different players logging at least 45 receiving yards. He also has a pair of stud wideouts in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin at his disposal, so expect Tampa Bay to be able to move the ball downfield against a vulnerable Lions secondary.
Although the Lions have allowed a modest 21.8 points per game over their last four contests, they've given up a whopping 352 passing yards per game during that span. They were extremely fortunate that the Vikings and Cowboys turned the ball over a ton in Week 17 and 18, plus the fact that the Rams went 0-3 in the red zone in the Wild Card round.
Since beating the Bucs back in mid-October, the Lions are just 30th in the league in defensive dropback EPA. Luckily for Lions fans, the Bucs haven't been much better, ranking 24th in defensive dropback EPA during the same span and struggling to contain tight ends and No. 1 wideouts.
That's bad news against a Detroit team that is fourth in the league in dropback success rate and has an efficient QB in Jared Goff, whose favorite targets are All-Pro wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown and tight end Sam LaPorta.
Both of these defenses have also been stingy against the run so expect both teams to rely on their aerial attacks, which should ultimately lead to a shootout at Ford Field.
My best bet: Over 48.5 (-110 at FanDuel) 50% live boost available
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
Buccaneers vs Lions same-game parlay
Over 48.5
Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 89.5 receiving yards
Baker Mayfield Over 255.5 passing yards
St. Brown was just named a first-team All-Pro and he's been a model of consistency for Detroit. He has racked up 90+ receiving yards in each of his last five games and 12 of his previous 16 contests.
The Bucs have routinely been getting torched by No. 1 receivers and have allowed 11 different WRs to hit the 90+ yard mark this season. That includes the previous meeting between these teams in October when St. Brown had 12 catches for 124 yards.
Detroit's pass defense has been awful for most of the season but the Lions have gotten even worse over the last month. Over their last four games, Aaron Glenn's unit has allowed QBs to throw for 411, 345, 396 yards, and 367 passing yards respectively. Meanwhile, Mayfield is red-hot, having thrown for more than 280 yards in four of his last five contests.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Buccaneers vs Lions spread and Over/Under analysis
The Lions opened as 6-point home faves with the O/U at 48.5 for this playoff clash. Early money came in on Detroit, shifting the line to -6.5, but it's highly unlikely that the spread will hit that key number of 7.
As of Wednesday afternoon, the O/U hasn't moved, which is interesting considering that Detroit's previous nine home games had seen the total tick up from the opening number.
The Lions edged the Rams 24-23 last week but failed to cover as 3-point home favorites. They were fortunate that the Rams scored just 23 points considering they racked up 425 yards with zero turnovers but couldn't score a TD in the red zone — an area where Detroit typically struggles to defend.
The Lions finished the regular season going 3-1 straight up and 4-0 against the spread in their last four games, and the Over is 7-3 in their previous 10 contests overall.
Meanwhile, the Bucs hammered the Eagles 32-9 as 3-point home underdogs on Monday. The Eagles entered the postseason on a slump and looked like they quit on head coach Nick Siriani, but that shouldn't take away from a complete performance from Tampa Bay. The Bucs have won six of their last seven games while going 5-2 ATS during that span.
Buccaneers vs Lions betting trend to know
The Over on the third quarter total has cashed in nine of Detroit's last 10 games (+8.00 Units / 65% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Buccaneers vs. Lions.
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Buccaneers vs Lions game info
| Location: | Ford Field, Detroit, MI |
| Date: | Sunday, January 21, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Amazon Prime, Peacock, CBS, FOX, ESPN, NBC |
| Opening odds: | Lions -6.5, 48.5 |
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Buccaneers vs Lions weather
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