C.J. Stroud Picks, Predictions, and Best Bets for Monday Night Football

On November 17, the Houston Texans will face the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium and my focus is solely on the C.J. Stroud odds. 

With the way the Cowboys have been leaking points, my NFL picks believe C.J. Stroud is primed for a big day throwing the football. 

C.J. Stroud MNF player prop picks

• Best bet
  C.J. Stroud Over 1.5 passing touchdowns
  (-102 at FanDuel)
  
  
• SGP Pick
  Over 1.5 passing touchdowns
  Over 241.5 passing yards
  Nico Collins anytime touchdown
  (+335 at FanDuel)

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

C.J. Stroud MNF prop pick

My best bet
Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-102 at FanDuel)

My analysis

AT&T Stadium will be loud ahead of the Dallas Cowboys hosting local rivals, the Houston Texans. The game has lost a bit of its sparkle with Dak Prescott sidelined, meaning that we’ll only be seeing one superstar quarterback, the Texans’ C.J. Stroud.

After an incredible rookie year, we’re seeing a sophomore slump from Stroud, although there are a number of reasons why his Texans are 6-4. The key reason has been the injuries to Stroud’s pass catchers. Stefon Diggs arrived in free agency but is now a long-term absentee with injury and then there’s Nico Collins. There’s no doubt that Collins is Stroud’s favorite target and the 6-foot-4, 222-pound receiver has developed an incredible connection with his QB. After missing the past five games we’re set to see Collins return this week. With him and Tank Dell, who has also had health issues this season, Stroud now has a great receiving duo and should be able to help us hit the Over on 1.5 passing touchdowns.

In addition to a WR corps who are beginning to find health, we also need to consider that the Cowboys are hugely underachieving. They previously had one of the NFL’s elite defenses but they’ve regressed this season. They’re in the bottom half of the league in terms of passing yardage allowed and they’ve allowed 15 passing touchdowns in nine games. The struggles they’ve had on offense have also meant that the defense has been on the field more than they’d like.

Despite averaging less than two passing touchdowns per game, they’ve been allowing more and more in recent weeks, giving up two or more passing touchdowns in four of their past five games. Jalen Hurts, Kirk Cousins, Jared Goff, and Justin Fields have all had two or more TDs against this defense since the start of October. 

Stroud is best when he has Nico Collins on the field and they are now one of the best QB-WR tandems in the NFL. We’re going to see the young quarterback take the team on his back and lead the Texans to a win on MNF, throwing two touchdowns in the process. 

C.J. Stroud MNF same-game parlay

Over 1.5 passing touchdowns

Over 241.5 passing yards

Nico Collins anytime touchdown

+335 at FanDuel

In addition to our best bet, we’re going to back C.J. Stroud to have Over 241.5 passing yards. It’s a number that he’s only hit four times in 10 games but that isn’t reason to avoid taking on the passing yard total. The Texans have been decimated with injuries in their WR corp and in five games with Nico Collins we saw Stroud get three of his big passing yard games. We’re expecting Collins back on MNF, and with his favorite target, we’ll see Stroud hit the Over.

Speaking of Collins, we’re also going to back the wideout to score in the game. Over the past year, he’s really elevated himself to being one of the very best WRs in the NFL. He scored three times in his five games this year and given the Cowboys' recent struggles, as well as his likely volume, we should see him find the endzone again.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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